Bitcoin drops again, falling below $94,000, erasing all gains this year

On the 17th Beijing time, after rallying to $96,600, Bitcoin once again plunged, briefly falling to $93,778.6, wiping out all gains this year. Around 7:00 a.m., Bitcoin was down more than 1%, breaking below $95,000. Multiple cryptocurrency products followed suit.

CoinGlass shows that in the past 24 hours, more than 150k people worldwide in the global cryptocurrency market were liquidated.

On the news front: Recently, market expectations for a rate cut in December have cooled, and overall risk appetite in the United States has clearly declined.

According to Securities Times, citing the CME “FedWatch,” the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has fallen below 50%, to only 44.4%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged has risen to 55.6%; the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by January next year is 48.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 16.7%.

As Caixin previously reported, short-term interest rate futures (the best real-time indicator reflecting financial markets’ expectations for Fed policy) show that the likelihood of a rate cut on December 10 by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has already dropped to 47%, whereas earlier last week this probability was still 67%.

Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will be able to obtain complete data before its policy meeting on December 9–10, such as the U.S. September employment, inflation, retail sales, and the initial estimate of Q3 GDP; the key will be whether the employment reports for October and November can be released on time.

In addition, Bank of America and Nomura have already, in research reports, estimated that the Federal Reserve will hold steady in December.

Also, according to China Central Television News, on the 14th, Logan, president of the Dallas Fed (a Federal Reserve Bank under the Fed), said, unless she sees clear evidence that U.S. inflation is falling faster, she does not support the Federal Reserve cutting rates again in December. Logan noted that the current level of U.S. inflation is still trending upward, and returning to the 2% target will take time.

Earlier, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the U.S. government “shutdown” has led to missing economic data, making him even more cautious about further rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook also said that, given the dual risks from both inflation and the labor market outlook, it is not currently certain that the Fed will cut rates again in December.

(Statement: The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act at their own risk.)

(Editor: Wen Jing)

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