A Brief Discussion on Bayesian, Marx, and Soros

I’ll explain the most essential, most transparent logic that can be used in trading immediately—no beating around the academic bush.

They all oppose the “static, mechanical, objectively independent” worldview. They agree: the world is not a fixed, unchanging set of objective facts—it’s dynamic, interactive, self-reinforcing; cognition affects reality, and reality in turn reshapes cognition.
Bayesian Inference
There is no absolute truth in the world—only current beliefs + new evidence → update beliefs. One-sentence summary of the Bayesian formula: how strongly the old belief × the new evidence points to this belief = the new belief.
Core: probabilistic reasoning, dynamic adjustment, non-attachment, continuous iteration

Marx’s Thought
Internal contradictions within things drive change; existence determines consciousness, and consciousness reacts back on existence. Social structures and economic relationships dynamically evolve—self-negation, spiral upward
Core: motion, contradiction, interaction, quantitative change → qualitative change

Soros’s Reflexivity
People recognize the world; people’s actions change the world; then it loops: cognition → action → reality → changes in cognition. The market is always deviating from equilibrium, heading toward extremes, self-reinforcing, and ultimately collapsing.
Core: feedback loops, bubbles, bias, trend self-fulfillment

One-sentence summary:
All systems are: dynamic, feedback-driven, mutually shaping, non-equilibrium, probabilistic evolution, self-reinforcement, and self-destruction.
Applied to trading: there is no such thing as a still “correct price,” “correct value,” “correct viewpoint,” “correct model,” or “correct system.” There’s no logic that works forever, and no independent trader.

I try to fuse them into a trader’s mindset:
1. Abandon “absolutism,” accept “probability and iteration”
Don’t seek to be correct once—seek to keep updating trades based on new information
Buying isn’t “I’m definitely right”; it’s that the current win rate is the best
If you’re wrong, fix it immediately: don’t be stubborn, don’t over-explain, don’t carry positions out of pride—directly reduce the three biggest causes of dead-holding, gambling with heavy positions, and subjective obsession
2. Understand that the market is contradictory motion, from quantitative change to qualitative change
Long-short contradictions, supply-demand contradictions, contradictions between expectations and reality, contradictions between leverage and repayment trending
It’s not a straight line—it’s the balance of power constantly tipping
Big rallies aren’t “rationality”—they’re accumulated long-side power taking control
Big selloffs aren’t “bad news”—they’re contradictions intensifying, structural breakage—learn to read trend structures, not a single piece of news
3. Master reflexivity = the market’s most core driving force (Soros)
This is the actual operating principle of the stock market: expectations of rising → buy → price rises → reinforce expectations → more buying self-reinforces → bubble
Conversely: expectations of falling → sell → falling → panic → crash
The market is always deviating from equilibrium; it’s always heading toward extremes. Equilibrium is only a moment—trends and bubbles are the norm.

Pushing it further:
**Stock prices are not a reflection of intrinsic value—they’re the cyclical outcome of expectations and behavior.
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**Trends aren’t an external phenomenon—they’re the process of reflexive self-reinforcement.
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**Fundamentals aren’t the deciding force—they’re variables reshaped by reflexivity.
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**“Correct” isn’t eternal; it’s continuous Bayesian-style calibration.
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The essence of up and down is quantitative change → qualitative change in the contradictory motion of long and short forces.

Trading philosophy:
Don’t put your faith in anything—value investing, technical indicators, the news cycle, trading models, sentiment cycles, and everything else; keep learning and keep updating
Learn to trade with the trend + cut losses + dynamically adjust position sizing
Understand that once a trend forms, it strengthens itself—don’t easily trade against it. That means don’t anticipate turning points; trade with the trend before the turning point arrives
Uncertainty is eternal—no risk control is enlightenment

In closing: The market is a probabilistic system driven by cognition, self-reinforcing, moved by contradictions, and continuously evolving. That’s the true underlying worldview every top trader should have.