Lottery-based home purchases make a comeback: New Beijing housing projects see a surge in online registrations in March

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Source: Beijing Business Daily

Grand openings are selling fast, sales offices are bustling with high foot traffic, and real estate consultants are simultaneously coordinating with multiple client groups… Just in March that just passed, Beijing’s new home market saw the most notable rebound since 2026. According to statistics by Beijing Business Daily, in March Beijing saw four new projects launch in a concentrated manner. Projects such as Jiatang Jingyue and China Overseas Jiushu Manhe also adopted an offline lottery selection method, which has been relatively uncommon in recent years. Among them, Jiatang Jingyue recorded sales revenue of 3 billion yuan on its opening day, with a sell-through rate of 60%. China Overseas Jiushu Manhe sold nearly 400 units on opening day, with a sell-through rate exceeding 80%. Industry insiders believe that policy tailwinds and the launch of high-quality projects jointly drove the market rebound, and the market in the second quarter is expected to continue recovering, but the structural differentiation pattern is still likely to persist.

New projects restart offline lottery launches

“Open one block, ignite one block”—this is the true snapshot of Beijing’s new home market in March 2026. It is understood that in March, four projects in Beijing’s new home market launched their sales in a concentrated sequence, with opening schedules advancing in an orderly way: on March 22, Jiatang Jingyue was the first to kick off; on March 25, China Overseas Jiushu Manhe followed immediately; on March 29, two projects, Guoxianfu PARK and Future City·Xinghuan Shidai, opened on the same day, creating a wave of concentrated launches.

Beijing Business Daily learned that, unlike the online selection model and “opening smoothly and naturally” style opening used by most developers in the past, for this launch, the three major projects—Jiatang Jingyue, China Overseas Jiushu Manhe, and Guoxianfu PARK—all held their opening ceremonies using an offline lottery housing selection approach, becoming a notable characteristic of this Beijing new home market rebound.

“Choosing the offline lottery housing selection mode, the core is based on the ample prior card-holding and client registration base.” Deng Hui, marketing director for the Jiatang Jingyue project, said that before the opening, the project had accumulated over 700 card-holding reservations, and more than 400 intended customers had paid 100,000 yuan in earnest money, providing solid buyer-accumulation support for the offline lottery launch.

Similarly using an offline lottery opening, the China Overseas Jiushu Manhe project’s person in charge said that the official policy tone is “to focus on stabilizing the real estate market.” Ongoing release of policy dividends has helped purchase confidence steadily rebound. In March, Beijing’s new home market accelerated its rebound and entered a “Little Spring” phase. Data show that the project’s sales office visit count accumulated to 9,600 groups, with market heat continuing to climb.

A sharp increase in sales-office visits directly boosted the number of clients reserving cards for the lottery. The person in charge of China Overseas Jiushu Manhe added that before the opening, the project had 750 groups of clients registered with genuine intent. To ensure transparency and fairness in the housing selection process, the project company deliberately adopted an on-site lottery mechanism, using a randomized method to determine the final housing selection order, effectively safeguarding buyers’ rights and interests.

Deng Hui further emphasized that the real estate market is currently in a period of deep adjustment. Many projects have gradually given up the offline housing selection model to control costs and simplify processes. By choosing to restart the offline lottery housing selection, Jiatang Jingyue’s initial intention is to use this public and transparent approach to convey confidence in industry development to customers and the market, helping market expectations recover steadily.

It is not hard to see that a solid customer base is the core prerequisite for a project to choose an offline lottery launch. Beijing Business Daily learned that the lake-and-island lifestyle experience hall and model units of the Guoxianfu PARK project opened on March 14. As of March 29, within 15 days, the project had welcomed more than 5,000 visiting client groups. Strong market attention has provided firm backing for this project’s offline lottery opening, and it also confirms the concentrated release of improvement-oriented demand in Beijing’s new home market.

Yan Yuejin, deputy dean of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said that in March, the concentrated offline lottery openings of new home projects in Beijing demonstrate a rebound in confidence in the new home market. On the policy front, the two sessions of the National People’s Congress and the National Committee of the CPPCC clearly set the direction of “stabilizing the housing market,” establishing a path of “controlling incremental supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply quality,” thereby strengthening buyers’ willingness to enter the market. On the market front, projects such as Jiatang Jingyue saw surging visiting and card-holding reservation heat, laying an accumulation of prospective buyers for the offline lottery. The restart of this model conveys signals of product scarcity and value certainty, helps stabilize expectations, and also serves as an example of a “supply based on demand” model for healthy development, providing a reference path for the industry.

Multiple projects’ first openings achieve sell-through above 50%

“On the way from home to the project, everything was smooth with no congestion. I didn’t expect that in the underground parking garage we would run into a 20-minute traffic jam; even the elevators had people queuing for 4 batches before we finally reached the event site.” Geng Ran, a prospective buyer who participated in Jiatang Jingyue’s offline lottery housing selection, complained to her real estate consultant, An Ran. According to Geng Ran, traveling by car from Guang’anmen to the housing selection event site located in the Lize Business District took only 17 minutes in total. The 20-minute congestion in the underground garage starkly contrasted with the smoothness along the route.

Although she had already mentally prepared for a large crowd at the site, after experiencing congestion in the underground garage, when Geng Ran entered the housing selection venue, she was still shocked by the fierce, hot scene. Thirty minutes before Jiatang Jingyue’s housing selection event officially began, the seating area was already full, and there were very few standing areas left. Based on Geng Ran’s visual estimate, the offline housing selection venue was equipped with at least 300 chairs, and the number of attendees exceeded 700 people.

Geng Ran told Beijing Business Daily that back in early January, during the initial stage when Jiatang Jingyue’s sales office opened, she had already completed registration as one of the first group of visitors. Because no payment was required at the time, Geng Ran signed a visitor-client intent registration form and participated in the project’s “Earn Money Every Day” preferential accumulation plan, locking in her eligibility for purchase discounts in advance.

As an early-intent client of the project, Geng Ran admitted that when she first visited, she only had an observation mindset. Her purpose in participating in registration and locking in the discounts was simply to “secure a discount quota first,” and she had not clearly decided on a purchase intent.

Recalling the time, Geng Ran said that when she visited the first time, Jiatang Jingyue’s sales office popularity was decent but had not reached the level of being extremely hot. Only a month later, when she went to consult at the sales office again, An Ran—the person who initially received her—had to simultaneously handle 5 client groups. This demonstrated clearly the rise in the heat of visits to the sales office. Geng Ran said that the steadily surging popularity at the sales office, together with the tangible benefits brought by the “Earn Money Every Day” discount, ultimately prompted her to make up her mind to complete the purchase.

Deng Hui said that the project planned 440 units across the whole project. On opening day, through the offline lottery housing selection method, it successfully signed 266 units. The sell-through rate for the opening was 60%, with the total signed amount reaching 3 billion yuan, achieving a strong result of “hot sales right at opening.”

In addition to Jiatang Jingyue, China Overseas Jiushu Manhe, which also adopted an on-site lottery housing selection model, saw strong sales on opening day as well. The project’s person in charge said that on March 25, the day of opening, about 1,350 people showed up at the site. Among the 474 units the project offered, 390 were sold on the spot, with a sell-through rate as high as 82.28%. The average unit price was about 51,500 yuan per square meter, and market recognition was quite strong.

In addition, the two projects in Changping District, China Construction Guoxianfu PARK and Future City·Xinghuan Shidai, achieved sell-through of over 55% immediately upon opening. Among them, China Construction Guoxianfu PARK sold 467 units on its opening day, with a sell-through rate of 56.13%; Future City·Xinghuan Shidai’s first launch achieved subscriptions for 389 units immediately, with a sell-through rate exceeding 60%.

Improvement-oriented demand has become the market’s dominant force

Driven by the continued strong sales of newly launched projects, real estate developers in Beijing have all released hot-selling posters for their properties, further signaling positive market momentum, reviving trading enthusiasm, and adding additional impetus to the rebound of Beijing’s new home market.

Beijing Business Daily’s review found that in March, several key projects in Beijing delivered impressive transaction performance: the two projects China Overseas Hanyu Future and Future Realm sold a total of 58 units, with transaction value of about 379 million yuan; the China Merchants Shekou Chaotang Lanyue project sold 135 units in the month, and on just March 31 alone, the transaction amount reached 120 million yuan; the Zhenxuan project sold 37 units in the same period; Poly Development Beijing Region’s March task completion rate reached 154%, with performance completion rate of 111%… Head companies performed strongly, becoming an important support for the market rebound.

Liu Shui, corporate research director at the China Index Research Institute, said that in terms of regional distribution, among the four new home projects opened in Beijing in March, two are located in Changping District and one is located in Tongzhou District. These projects mainly focus on rigid demand and “just-improve” category products, precisely matching the market’s mainstream needs, and successfully stimulated transaction activity with their high cost performance.

According to data from the China Index Research Institute, in the first quarter of 2026, the share of contracted units of high-area products (excluding affordable housing) for Beijing’s commodity residential properties was 7.7%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the products in the 200–300 square meter range saw a relatively large increase in share. The share of contracted units in the mid-to-large area segment was 69.8%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year; the share of contracted units in the low-to-mid area segment was 22.5%, basically matching the same period last year.

Zhao Zhansheng, an analyst of Beijing enterprises at the China Index Research Institute, said that from a further breakdown of transaction structure, the 90–120 square meter and 120–160 square meter floorplans have become the main contributors to contracted commodity residential properties in Beijing. Their shares of units were 36.6% and 26.5%, respectively, and the combined share of the two area segments reached 63.1%. As the supply structure of new home market offerings continues to tilt toward improvement-oriented products, together with the ongoing improvement in the product strength of high-quality residential units, improvement-oriented purchase demand is gradually being released. This is pushing the overall contracted area segment of new home transactions upward, and accordingly increasing the share of large-unit products.

With the concurrent strength of newly opened projects and existing on-sale projects, after the Spring Festival holiday, as accumulated demand was released and influenced by the launch of high-quality projects, transactions in Beijing’s new home market showed marginal improvement. The transaction volume in March rebounded noticeably.

Zhao Zhansheng analyzed that from week-by-week data, after the Spring Festival holiday, the new home market repaired quickly. The contracted transaction scale increased month-over-month for five consecutive weeks. In the fourth week of March (March 23–29), contracted new commodity residential homes totaled 136,200 square meters, setting a new weekly high since 2026, and reflecting the “Little Spring” market outlook.

Guo Yi, chief analyst at Heshi Institution, said that among the units whose online signatures were completed in March, the subscription behavior mostly occurred in February and earlier. Due to this year’s Spring Festival falling later, among the projects currently with high market heat, only a few such as China Overseas Jiushu Manhe have relatively faster subscription-to-online-signature efficiency. For other projects, online signatures are concentrated in April.

Beijing Business Daily noted that on April 1, Beijing’s new commodity residential homes saw 2,375 units signed online in a single day. Compared with the same period in 2025, the daily transaction volume already accounted for 69.53% of the total online signature volume for all of April 2025.

Liu Shui said that in this year’s first quarter, the property market in core cities showed a spot-like repair pattern, and Beijing, as a core city, achieved a market rebound first. Looking ahead to the second quarter, with the launch of “good property” projects and the overlap with the traditional peak season, the transaction volumes of new homes and secondhand homes in core cities are expected to receive support. However, the overall market is still in a foundation-building period, and the differentiation trend is expected to continue.

Beijing Business Daily reporter Li Han

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