Since the outbreak of the war, the worst 24 hours for the United States

(1)

This is the worst 24 hours for the United States since the war began.

On April 3, Iran’s most active hardliner, Majlis Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, posted a tweet:

“After beating Iran 37 times in a row, this brilliant, unstrategic war they’ve launched has now been downgraded from ‘regime change’ to ‘Hey! Can someone find our pilot? Please! Wow. What an unbelievable leap. Absolute genius.’”

What does that mean?

1. Everyone around the world knows that Iran shot down a U.S. F-15E fighter jet.

2. The United States claims that two pilots ejected and that one pilot has been recovered, but the other pilot is missing. Iran is conducting an urgent massive search to capture this pilot alive.

3. So Qalibaf mocks it: look how tough the U.S. used to be—always claiming they’d won hands down, that they would topple Iran’s regime—yet now it’s “Hey! Can someone find our pilot? Please?”

This should also be Iran’s sharpest taunt at the United States since the war began.

In fact, April 3 was not a good day for the United States.

I saw that on social media overseas, many people were saying this was America’s “difficult 24 hours.”

Let’s just list it out plainly.

One F-15E fighter jet was shot down by Iran (according to the U.S., one pilot was rescued; the other is missing).

Two UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters were hit by Iranian artillery fire during the search and rescue (crew safe; some personnel injured).

Two A-10 “Warthog” attack aircraft were hit (one crashed into the Persian Gulf—pilot rescued; the other made an emergency landing with a single engine).

One F-16 fighter jet declared an emergency and landed safely (also reported by some as having crashed).

One to two KC-135 refueling tankers also declared an emergency.

As for Iran’s earlier claim that it shot down a U.S. F-35 fighter, based on the current situation, it should probably be that F-15 fighter jet.

Although American fighter jets have been shot down before, the U.S. side has always stressed that they were shot down by friendly forces. In other words, it was our own mistake, and Iran didn’t have the capability to shoot them down.

But this time, it was clearly Iran that shot it down—and not just one aircraft. The U.S. pilots are also missing.

After getting used to the U.S. relentlessly bombing everyone else, they’ve finally hit a bad streak.

Once the logic of war is broken, the boundary between the strong and the weak is starting to blur.

(2)

Night fell quickly. In Iran’s mountainous regions, Iran and the U.S. launched an intense manhunt, competing over the pilots.

In the video, a U.S. C-130 aircraft passed almost at people’s scalp level, flying low over Iranian airspace, and provided aerial refueling for two Black Hawk helicopters.

This should be a U.S. helicopter carrying out the search-and-rescue mission.

As mentioned earlier, the U.S. claims that there were two pilots who ejected. One pilot has been rescued, and during the search and rescue, Black Hawk helicopters were attacked by Iranian artillery fire, with personnel injured, but they returned safely.

However, according to Iran, the F-15E fighter jet that was shot down had only one cockpit—and only one ejection seat was found. How could it be two people?

Of course, battlefield news is a mix of true and false. We can just listen to it.

But the fact is that a U.S. aircraft was shot down. The fact is also that the U.S. pilot ejected. If Iran captures the U.S. pilot, it would undoubtedly be an unprecedented major victory for Iran.

Iran immediately launched a large-scale search operation.

Iranian officials said that they had offered a heavy cash bounty. Any individual or group that captured or killed enemy personnel—whoever it is—would receive “generous” rewards.

In a video that went viral overseas, Iranian local tribal armed men walked through the mountains holding rifles, searching for the missing U.S. pilot. They excitedly said, “Don’t worry—we’ll find him.”

I saw that the official account of Iran’s embassy in Thailand even posted an animated video about catching a pilot, with just a few words in the caption: This is Iran right now!

In addition, Iranian civilians became more spontaneously active.

An Iranian businessman publicly offered a “huge sum” bounty worth $50k, rewarding any Iranian who “captures alive” this pilot.

Thus, this turned into a “nationwide effort to catch U.S. pilots.” I also saw someone remark: “Now, every Iranian civilian poses a potential threat to the American pilots on the ground.”

The value of a single pilot was redefined overnight—from a conqueror on the battlefield to a prey that everyone seeks.

Trump is clearly paying attention to all of this.

When the media asked whether if a U.S. pilot were captured it would affect negotiations with Iran, Trump replied: “No, not at all. This is war. We are in the middle of a war!”

In another interview, he also said, “We hope this situation (being captured or killed) won’t happen.”

A CNN report is also quite interesting.

Right after discussing Trump’s views on what the pilot might face, it then said that later that same day, Trump also posted an “ambiguous” tweet about oil: “Does someone want to keep the oil?”

Earlier, Trump had also said, “Just give us a little more time, we can easily open the Strait of Hormuz, take the oil, and make a lot of money.”

Well, in Trump’s view, oil is still more important.

(3)

A dramatic change.

In the end, let’s stick to three superficial points.

First, this is a superb insult.

Don’t forget that a full month earlier (March 4), U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth boasted: “Starting last night, in a few days, it will be completed. In less than a week, the two most powerful air forces in the world will have completely taken control of Iran’s skies.”

He claimed that Iran’s skies were “uncontested airspace,” and that for U.S. and Israeli aircraft, “Iran can’t do anything about it.”

Then over the following month, we could almost hear similar boasting from the United States nearly every day. One of the points Trump kept insisting on is that Iran now has “no navy,” “no air force,” and also “no air defense system.”

In a White House speech on the evening of April 1, Trump even claimed that the U.S. could strike Iran’s oil facilities at will: “They can do nothing about it.” “They don’t have air-defense equipment. Their radars have been completely destroyed. We, as a military force, are unstoppable.”

The words had barely left his mouth before at least two U.S. fighter jets were shot down.

Second, Iran’s stance has become increasingly tougher.

I saw that some media reported that the U.S. had tried to reach a 48-hour ceasefire agreement with Iran through a third-party country. Iran did not provide a written response, but instead continued launching fierce attacks—“an indirect refusal to that request.”

On April 3, Iran claimed that it launched the 91st and 92nd waves of attacks.

Besides two U.S. aircraft being shot down, Iranian missiles and those of the Houthis also struck Israeli cities such as Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Eilat.

Iranian missiles also attacked a “secret staging area” for U.S. pilots inside the UAE, causing “major casualties.”

In addition, Iran attacked the Middle East computing-power facilities of Amazon and Oracle, the U.S. remote early-warning radar in Bahrain, and U.S. military bases in Jordan and Kuwait…

With the current posture, it feels like the U.S. wants to talk and really wants to talk. In Trump’s words, “Why hasn’t Iran called yet?” But Iran’s stance is simply not to negotiate—and not able to negotiate either. What if, after negotiating, the U.S. tears up the deal?

Third, this is a more intense game.

Trump is clearly stuck in a dilemma.

If he retreats in a humiliating way, where does the U.S. put its face? So it keeps expanding the scope of strikes, even attacking civilian bridges, trying to salvage a bit of face and force Iran to agree to talk.

But with U.S. aircraft being shot down one after another, if the U.S. pilots really fall into Iran’s hands, this would be an even heavier blow to Trump.

Without doubt, Iran will also tout this as a major victory.

An increasingly confident Iran, an Iran that controls the Strait of Hormuz, and an Iran that keeps shooting down U.S. aircraft—these are undoubtedly a nightmare for the United States.

Even airstrikes are becoming dangerous, let alone a ground war.

When a superpower starts searching for its lost pilots in a valley in a foreign land, all narratives of invincibility are left only with echoes of silence.

Personal opinion does not represent any organization

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责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183