Trump speaks again: Crude oil and gold face off in a battle between bulls and bears

If you’re trading stocks, just look at the Golden Qilin analyst reports—authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive—helping you uncover high-potential theme opportunities!

Source: Beijing Business Today

A statement by U.S. President Trump has sent shockwaves through global capital markets: international oil prices have surged again, while gold and silver have plunged in a straight line. Some analysts say that the current logic for pricing geopolitical risks has fragmented, and the market has entered a “quick in, quick out” trading mode, with volatility risk becoming a key variable for testing investors’ risk controls. As Trump claims that “in the next two to three weeks” the U.S. will carry out an extremely fierce attack on Iran, this commodities game—dominated by geopolitical developments—may continue to play out with elevated volatility risk.

Gold falls again

After four straight days of gains, international gold prices have turned lower again. As of 20:00 on April 2, London spot gold fell 3.55% to $4,613.37 per ounce; London spot silver was $70.681 per ounce, down 6.13%.

Market turbulence stems from a speech Trump delivered the night before at the White House, in which he claimed that the U.S. has achieved “quick, decisive, overwhelming victory” in the war with Iran. Trump said the core strategic goals of the U.S. in the war with Iran are “nearly completed.” He said: “Iran’s navy has now been completely destroyed, and its air force and missile projects have also been severely damaged.”

Trump said that the war with Iran is expected to complete all military objectives “within a very short time.” “In the next two to three weeks, we will launch an extremely fierce strike at them… and negotiations are also underway.” Trump claimed that a change of regime in Iran is not a U.S. goal, but at the same time he has also claimed on his own that a change of regime in Iran has already taken place. He said that if Iran does not reach an agreement with the U.S. within the next two to three weeks, the U.S. military will target Iran’s key objectives, “launch a very fierce strike at every power plant of theirs,” and may also strike Iran’s oil facilities.

Trump also said that U.S. forces launched a fierce attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June last year, causing Iran to “need months to come close to those nuclear ruins.” The U.S. side is conducting close monitoring of Iran’s nuclear facilities via satellites. “If we see any move from them—no matter how slight—we will strike them hard with missiles again.”

“Anomalies in the gold market are not a simple technical pullback.” A trader said that after the gold price just regained the $4,800 level, within minutes of Trump’s speech it staged a “cliff dive.” This largely reflects the fragility and speculative nature of market funds today. Both long and short fund flows have shown a trend of quick in, quick out, and gold’s volatility has been significantly amplified.

Dongwu Securities said in its analysis that the current market’s pricing of geopolitical risk is displaying clear “pulse-like” characteristics: news triggers a sharp surge, while when expectations are realized or a turning point occurs, it triggers stampede-style exits. Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute believes that although the suppressing factors on short-term precious metals have eased somewhat, the market has not formed a consensus for one-way上涨; the intense game between profit-taking positions and safe-haven positions has caused the intraday swing to expand sharply.

Besides commodities, capital markets have also been affected. Stocks in Japan and South Korea quickly slid during the trading day. The Korea Exchange also launched a circuit-breaker mechanism for the KOSDAQ index; ultimately, they all closed down sharply together—Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell more than 2%, and South Korea’s composite index fell more than 4%. U.S. and European stock markets have not opened yet, but U.S. and European stock index futures have also dropped across the board.

Encouraging a “rush for oil” again

Contrary to gold and silver prices, international oil prices saw a sharp rise. As of 20:30 Beijing time on April 2, the WTI crude oil futures price rose 10% to $110.077 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 8.06% to $109.318 per barrel. In this round of sharp oil price gains, WTI crude oil futures climbed steadily from around $65 per barrel, and in March it once surged to $113; the month’s cumulative gain was 51%, and the gain year-to-date reached 83%.

Regarding oil, Trump said that the U.S. did not need the Strait of Hormuz in the past, and it does not need it now. For countries that need to obtain oil through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump urged those countries to either “buy oil from the U.S.” or directly go to the Strait of Hormuz to “snatch oil.”

Robert Renney, head of commodities research at West Pacific Bank, analyzed: “Trump’s remarks have not changed the market’s fundamental reality—the strait has actually been closed for a month, and the flow of crude oil remains severely constrained. At least for the next several weeks, even longer, interruptions are likely to occur.” He added that he expects Brent crude oil to trade in the short term in a range of $95 to $110 per barrel.

“Even if the ceasefire happens tomorrow, oil prices won’t go back.” This is the broad consensus among market institutions on the crude oil pricing logic. Andy Libo, president of U.S. Libo Petroleum Consulting, believes that even if the conflict ends tomorrow, oil prices could drop immediately by $10 to $15, but they could never return to the pre-conflict level of about $65 per barrel. Because the market has started to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium across the entire Middle East region.

Meanwhile, as aviation fuel prices soar, airlines are also affected. BBC reported that the Air France–KLM Group, headquartered in Paris, France, said it plans to raise ticket prices on long-haul flights to cope with the increase in fuel costs; Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) also raised fares and said it will cut 1,000 flights in April.

High volatility risk

Facing the current market’s severe, geopolitics-driven volatility, many institutions believe global asset pricing logic has shifted and have proposed new response strategies.

Dongwu Securities mentioned in its research report that the current market’s up-and-down pace is heavily influenced by overseas factors—especially the conflict brought about by Trump’s speech. The firm suggested that investors may wait for the situation to become clearer before deciding on further investment directions.

Shenyin Wanguo Futures, from the perspective of risk hedging, suggested that if in the coming weeks there is no substantive progress in negotiations or if the conflict unexpectedly escalates, oil prices still face the risk of a second surge. In terms of strategy, you need to closely watch U.S.-Iran diplomatic feedback and the movements of U.S. ground forces; as for gold, given that its long-term upward trend remains unchanged, short-term large fluctuations may instead provide a window for medium-to-long-term allocation.

Tongguan Jin Yuan Futures further analyzed that current geopolitical signals are still switching back and forth, and market expectations are highly divided. Even if the Middle East conflict ends this time, concerns about how long high oil prices will continue to disturb the global economy are becoming even more pronounced, making it difficult for oil prices to return to previous levels.

In addition, damage to the supply chain is hard to heal in the short term. Shenyin Wanguo Futures believes that from the perspective of the supply chain, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, restoring the entire supply system still takes time—such as tankers getting repositioned, adjusting routes, restoring capacity, and restarting refineries—each requires a lengthy repair cycle. Although the geopolitical conflict releases a “cooling down” signal, this is likely only verbal reassurance, and both sides still have major substantive disagreements and uncertainty.

Statistical institutions generally warn that within the “next two to three weeks” window, trading volatility in gold and rebuilding the geopolitical premium in crude oil will become the two main core lines of focus for global investors, and investors should also be wary of tail high-volatility risks. Yao Yuan, senior investment strategy officer at the Asia Investment Research Institute of Orientale Asset Management, suggested that investors should distinguish between short-cycle trading and long-cycle allocation. In the short term, it is hard to predict how geopolitical conflicts will evolve. If you are over-allocating risk assets, you should reduce exposure, increase cash, and hedge through energy, commodities, and derivatives.

By Beijing Business Today reporter Zhao Tianshu

 Huge information on Sina’s co-operated big platform, safe and fast futures account opening guaranteed
![](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/social/moments-1c6182a8ad-83d176178b-8b7abd-badf29)

		
		
		

		

		
		Sina statement: This message is reposted from Sina’s partner media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of transmitting more information, which does not mean endorsing its viewpoints or verifying the descriptions. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act at their own risk.

Vast information and precise interpretation—right within the Sina Finance APP

责任编辑：高佳