U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Rebound Strongly in March

U.S. nonfarm payrolls in March rebounded strongly, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, indicating that the labor market had stabilized around the time the Iran war began.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose by 178k in March, the largest increase since the end of 2024, while revised data showed that employment in February fell sharply. The March figure was above expectations from all economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

After employment dropped sharply in February, driven by labor strikes involving more than 30k healthcare industry workers and by unusually cold weather, economists generally expected a rebound in March jobs. This strong showing may reinforce the Federal Reserve’s focus on inflation risks, especially as the war in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices.

Job growth was mainly driven by the healthcare sector, after issues involving strikes by Kaiser Permanente employees in California and Hawaii were resolved. But the report showed that employment grew across industries overall, and a metric measuring the breadth of hiring rose to the highest level in more than two years.

Employment in construction, as well as in leisure and hospitality, rebounded after slipping in February, possibly reflecting a weather-related upswing. Hiring in manufacturing posted its strongest performance since the end of 2023.

After the data were released, U.S. Treasury yields rose. The U.S. stock market was closed for Good Friday.

February nonfarm payrolls were revised down by 133k, one of the largest declines since the pandemic. However, the average number of jobs added per month in the first three months of this year was 68k, the best performance in nearly a year.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, but partly because some Americans exited the labor market. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.9%, the lowest level since 2021. Participation also declined for core working-age people aged 25 to 54. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons increased.

Economists are also closely watching how changes in labor supply and demand affect wage growth, especially amid a renewed rise in inflation risks. The report showed average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month over month and 3.5% year over year, the lowest in nearly five years. This could pose challenges for consumers facing soaring energy prices.

The employment survey reflects the situation in the second week of March, shortly after the Iran war broke out on February 28. Economists expect that if the conflict continues, the war will have a bigger impact on future employment data, because companies may delay hiring or lay off workers due to higher energy prices and potentially weaker demand.

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