The Fed meeting is literally just a few hours away, and this will be a real turning point for the crypto market. I’m watching how the markets have behaved this year, and it’s simply astonishing — all the old patterns have fallen apart.

Of course, when central banks cut key interest rates, markets should fall. The logic is simple: cheap credit doesn’t go into investments, but into prolonging the pain. But this year everything is the opposite — each Fed rate cut triggers growth. That says one thing: there’s a lot of money circulating in the system, keeping the markets afloat.

Look at the chart — the blue lines are Fed meeting days. When rates were unchanged, Bitcoin traded sideways. But after each rate cut, it started to rise. The correlation between rate moves and crypto price action has become extremely noticeable.

Today at 22:00 MSK, the interest rate decision will be announced. The market is already pricing in a 95% probability of a 0.25-point cut. If it’s 0.5 points — expect big green candles. Bitcoin is currently hovering around 67.15K, and momentum is building.

But here’s the catch: even if the market already knows about the cut, we’re not moving up. The reason is that everyone is waiting for the Fed Chair’s speech. It is his words that will determine the direction of the markets over the next month. Traders look for clues, trying to figure out what will happen next. The correlation between rate expectations and market sentiment shows that the main thing isn’t the decision itself, but the tone of its delivery.

This is a classic moment when the market holds its breath ahead of big news. All these mechanics of rate changes and their impact on crypto are the foundation on which the entire analysis is built. If the Fed Chair is optimistic, after the meeting a new wave of growth will begin. It will be genuinely interesting to watch.