Chen Junqi: The shift between bulls and bears happens in an instant. Where will gold go next week?

April 3, gold. Yesterday it surged and then reversed; the high once reached 4,800, and the pullback was also very large. The low was around 4,550. After the second rebound in the European session, it stalled at the 4,700 level, then pulled back and ended with a choppy close.

Today the international gold market is closed for the holiday. The nonfarm payroll data will be released as usual, and in addition there may be more news over the weekend. So next week’s gold opening is absolutely not going to be calm—it could be quite stimulating. Note: during nonfarm time, gold is paused for trading, that’s correct, but we still need to look at the data results. Also, the foreign exchange market will move normally. To know how gold might rise or fall during the data period, you can refer to the U.S. Dollar Index. After it is released at 8:30 p.m. local time, as long as the dollar rallies strongly into the close, then next Monday’s gold opening will likely gap down; conversely, if it closes with a sharp drop, then it will likely gap up. It’s only that it can’t be traded during that time—this is not without any reference basis.

The Thursday market outlook reminded everyone to switch their thinking in time. After 4,650 was tested multiple times, the probability of a breakdown increased. We advised to quickly exit around 4,650. After the market broke below 4,650, we followed up with a short position. The price in the screen bottomed out and once touched around 4,550 to stop the fall. After the second European-session test, once we confirmed the next low at 4,580, we also emphasized that gold needs to look at upside room. At midnight it then pushed higher again to 4,700. In this back-and-forth, the market formed a sweep of positions, but Junqi still won this battle.

This week, gold closed at 4,676 dollars. For now, watch the lower side, especially the 4,580 recent low. On the upside, 4,700 and 4,800 are resistance levels. Pay attention to whether the range breaks. Watch how the nonfarm payroll data performs this Friday evening, especially the dollar’s trend. Then we’ll make a more specific analysis.

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Editor: Chen Ping