破贪破惧，重兵低吸，轻兵试板

Praise first, then watch. Yearly earnings of 190k! (New followers can learn XI on the homepage, see the pinned post and live replay)[Taoguba]
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It might be because the growth in followers has made my time insufficient, but I still want to plan to spend at least three hours every day focusing on chatting with everyone in the replies, helping followers discover problems and solve problems. So I will reply starting from the first floor, following the order of your reply times, to解答 everyone’s questions. If you have questions, please send them as early as possible; of course, I will do my best to努力 to answer all questions.
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If, for some reason, I happened to miss a question I answered the day before, you can post that question again in your new thread.**

Today’s axis-center consecutive-limit-up again made me sad. Suddenly I regretted why I changed my 龙头战法 five years ago.

I’m trying so hard, using all kinds of manual quant tools, yet I still can’t calculate the width of the intraday range on the consecutive-limit-up day. I suddenly really wanted to give up. Go back to my days of 100% low-buying. It’s like I’m treating it as if I never came to the 龙头 arena.

I’m not sad about missing a limit-up exit point and taking a cut, and I’m also not sad about losing two points from taking off while it’s underwater. In board-luck trading, if you lose 2% on the next day and leave, nobody will say your skills are bad. What I discovered is that no matter how hard I try, I can calculate that the bulls will be in the green on the next day—but I can never calculate the intraday “A-kill” expected value the bulls will produce on the next day. I won’t keep innovating my research ability, because the学XI in the market has no endpoint. I can only use what’s matured to cash out; adjust positions with certain risk. So today, after sitting with my thoughts, I made the following layout with axis-center consecutive-limit-up and 龙头 consecutive-limit-up

1. I treat trading as a battlefield. For first-board strategy, consecutive-limit-up strategy, and 龙头 strategy—those that directly push for a massive breakout or a massive B point—I start with a light position. Like the vanguard units on the battlefield, you can sacrifice, but it won’t affect my main force. I treat these three board-hitting strategies as my hidden weapons and key tools.

Total position is split into two layers. If the stock bombs out on that day and there’s no dynamic value on the next day, I admit the loss and exit. So I control risk with position sizing. That’s why I reduced the former half-position consecutive-limit-up and the heavy-position 龙头 down to 20% positions.

Total position is split into two layers. If on the next day there’s an expectation of five points or more, I unconditionally cut the position in half. This can control the outbreak of my human weaknesses, because in my system, the trading system accounts for half, and the management of human weaknesses accounts for the other half. After cutting in half when it rises 5%, there’s still 10% that can’t be reduced again. At this time, pursue maximum profit;

Total position is split into two layers. If on the next day it opens on a one-price board, you can’t reduce the position, because when board-hitting depends on the 9010 long/short sentiment ratio, it’s easy for disagreement on day to turn into a one-price board again on the next day. In that case, you can’t cut the position in half on the one-price board, because it’s the moment you’ve reached the bulls’ maximum value. This half-cut strategy must be delayed: only when, on some day, the auction at the open is no longer a one-price board do you execute the half-cut strategy. This is also to manage human weaknesses. For the remaining 10%, you similarly pursue maximum profit.

This is how I think about problems. If I do poorly and miss the best cut-point, I won’t blame the market’s big drop, and I also won’t blame the prop traders for not coming to the relay, because what we have to do is only one thing: adapt to the market. The market won’t be wrong.

If you have good suggestions for my way of thinking, or different opinions, you can raise them in the replies. If you think my position layout viewpoint makes sense, you can also exchange ideas or use it; because what I’m best at is low-buying. I once did low-buying for 25 years. There’s no need to exhaust myself like this. Most important is: if consecutive-limit-up trading doesn’t go well, it will affect the expected value generated by your low-buying.

Now back to the main point—let’s talk about 通DGF. In the morning pre-market, the auction opened up by five points. I truly thought it would succeed in advancing. I also thought that holding it with a starter position yesterday was the most correct decision. And then within one minute it was capped. When I looked, the volume was still not small—190k hands, and the trading value was nearly 300 million.

In the end, I still realized I amplified my own greed. In the consecutive-limit-up board arena, I’m just a small person. Then suddenly I found that although board-hitting and low-buying are both天量, their prediction values are completely different. Board-hitting is predicting the bulls’ breakout value; while the double-break low-buy is predicting the bulls’ follow-through/holding value.

What I mean is this: according to the law of sentiment conservation, bulls’ sentiment + bears’ sentiment = 100%. With a double-break low-buy, I only need to quantify the bears’ power to indirectly verify the bulls’ power. Even without quantifying the bulls, there will still be a result. But board-hitting is different: you can’t quantify the bears’ power. You can only quantify the bulls’ power. For example, with 通D yesterday, I quantified its bulls: the open was long green turning to longer red—bullish and strong. In the third-to-fourth stage, after producing consecutive-limit-ups earlier, at C small 4, the bulls’ power was greater than 90%.

Today it gapped up. It touched the limit-up for a moment in an instant, which proves that my quantification of the long/short sentiment ratio 9010 was correct. But it only lasted for a few seconds. That means when quantifying the long/short ratio, I wasn’t wrong—on the next day it really did gap up, and it did exceed the short side and also moved out with a smooth value of 9010. But it didn’t have width.

No width—why no width? ??? I don’t know. Anyway, I, brother, don’t want to study it anymore. That’s about all the tricks for board-hitting. The rest is up to probability and success rate. If it’s my stop-loss, then I take it; if it’s my time to make money, that’s my ability. My brother’s energy is limited!!!

After experiencing the injury from consecutive-limit-ups, when I look back again at my double-break low-buy, I love it even more, because my double-break low-buy expected value is something old followers should know. If you use extremely high-sounding phrasing to describe it, it might still not be an exaggeration. With something like 双鹭YY, I cut off too early—that’s my fault. But its rebound expectation really did reach 20% within two days, and that has to be admitted.

Anyway, if I say my low-buy is second, nobody would dare say it’s third. The key point—keep a low profile—so you have to admit my low-buy is the worst.

My low-buy is so bad: 百川, three B; 汉缆, four B; 奥RD, three B; 美LY, two B; 双鹭YY, two B;

My time-cycle algorithm for low-buying is also very bad. I can’t see results on the same day; I have to wait until the next day.

Back to the main point: in the afternoon, we talked about it. One person can’t simultaneously have both a spear and a shield. If you truly had both, you would really be the Spear and Shield. So between double-break low-buying and the 龙头 strategy, I should have a choice. How to choose—I already said my answer. If some followers help me choose again, that’s also fine.
1. Value the double-break low-buy: it’s safer, can emphasize risk; it’s stable, and can produce compounding returns.
2. Value the 龙头 strategy: it’s the extreme 9010 long/short sentiment ratio. It fits my algorithm perfectly, and the 龙头 strategy is the fastest mode for capital to grow big.

For position management in double-break low-buying, I think it can be done with 30% or 50% positions depending on the coefficient. With high coefficients, use 5-layer C; with low coefficients, use 3-layer C, and pair it with the T+0 eight big modes.

Summary: low-buy + 龙头 combination idea for followers

The 龙头 strategy has strong explosive power and climbs sharply, but it has high volatility and harsh drawdowns. Chasing highs easily gets you trapped on the same day, and continual adjustments will lead to a big loss—so the risk is clearly on the high side.
Low-buying focuses more on the天量 C point; the position is relatively safer compared with天量 breakouts because of the time-cycle stabilization signals. You buy at a relatively low level, the pullback room is small, and stop-loss control is good—so overall safety is higher and you can even increase position size somewhat.
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In practice, you can do a combination:**
Use a small position to gamble on 龙头 for upside elasticity, and use the main position for low-buying for stable returns. Use the safety cushion from low-buying to hedge 龙头’s risk. You can press the attack when appropriate and protect yourself when needed. Overall it’s steadier and more suitable for most people.

Next, we’ll focus on explaining risk management that is smooth and high-frequency in real practice. Many people can’t handle smooth and high-frequency well. In terms of what it fundamentally means, in terms of the daily line ACB: for smooth and high-frequency, its essence is two points—first, entering the right-side movement; second, the long/short ratio isn’t 9010. We’ll use 中衡设计 as an example; see the diagram below.

中衡设计 has a periodic pressure-measure value, which indicates that the long/short ratio entered the 5149 value—meaning that 51% of the chips start choosing firm bullishness and no longer sell. In the market, all outstanding tradable shares are within 49%. As time passes, the bears keep releasing and the bulls keep increasing, so the long/short sentiment ratio gradually grows from the initial 5149. When it increases to a 7030 long/short ratio, the stock’s volatility also starts to increase. At that time, the chart pattern enters the smooth high-frequency form of 7030.

Here’s a key point: when the 7030 long/short sentiment ratio smoothly breaks above the previous high B point, it forms a B2. During the sustained process of this B2, because the price makes new highs, it attracts greedy bullish buyers from the market to enter and chase the rally. Actually, they don’t even know whether their chasing is right or wrong—but we know that if it breaks above 7030 vs the previous high, then they will be wrong. However, they have a correction function, so they will take bold risks and try. There’s a value here that’s relatively important: greed is the final bullish power. They will fire the last greedy bullet, forming an incorrect peak height.

So, when the current B point breaks above the previous high, we need to quantify whether the bulls at the time of breaking above were 9010 or 7030. If it’s 9010, then it’s a real breakout—that’s exactly what everyone has pursued for many years. Then, next, let’s see the long/short ratio when 中衡设计 broke above the previous high.

In the chart above: on March 31, it broke above the previous high of 15.97. That means after it passes that high point, we should see that the long/short sentiment value is 9010. Yes—during the morning it passed the previous high at 9010. But it was only a matter of a few seconds. It was then pressed back down by a longer green column. That means this smooth value still doesn’t have width. What we require is both smooth-value strength + width.

In the chart above: after it releases that long green, the bullish strength in the pullback is clearly no longer the same as that single long red candle from the morning. Obviously, the bearish power during the drop hasn’t been completely released. According to the law of sentiment conservation, if it hasn’t been completely released, that means bears still exist. If bears still exist, then the long/short ratio won’t be 9010. This is the simplest logic. So after breaking above the previous high, what should be done is continuous cutting off—leaving the position is the better strategy.

A classmate asked: why when it breaks above the previous high does it not show a direct A-kill in performance? That’s because the forces of smooth high-frequency and the periodic pressure-measure value increase the bearish side little by little. So the bulls slowly disappear. Don’t misjudge it as “support/holding.” It’s actually the last chance to leave. On the outer arc after the previous B point, it’s like the second lifeline in board-hitting.

Many people think this is “support/holding,” and they keep watching continuously. That’s wrong. Look at its next day: when it makes another new high, does it have today’s smooth value? Was it even absent for that one second? See the chart below.

On the next day there’s no smooth value; instead, it’s intraday “4-cycle.” We know the long/short ratio of the intraday 4-cycle is 7030. So the answer is very clear: this is the final time to exit. How is the outer arc formed? It’s because a good trading system chooses to exit—yet many other trading systems still discover buy signals, so there is still some holding/support. But as time passes, all trading systems will display sell signals. That last holding/support will disappear. When the market’s trading systems no longer issue buy signals, the outer arc disappears directly, creating the biggest risk: the B-to-C risk. Then look at the next trading day—it starts a clear downward move with full transparency.

On the day after next, it becomes completely transparent.

Finally, what the daily line truly reflects is exactly this.

Personal view, for reference only
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We won’t learn this trading strategy here for today. Preaching is not easy. I hope fate lets you and me cherish each other.**
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In 30 years of short-term line practice, I spent 25 years low-buying. In the last 5 years, I shifted to board-hitting, including first-board, consecutive-limit-ups, and the 龙头. And all of the strategies come from my self-created《Emotion Quantified ACB trading system》**
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On the Taoguba platform, everyone can freely exchange ideas, learn from each other, and share experiences. I will also frankly share my own trading thought process, my views on the trading screen, and my personal position records.**
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But I must remind everyone: the platform strictly prohibits stock recommendations and guidance on buying and selling. All the content I share is only personal records and thought exchanges and does not constitute any investment advice.**
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Followers can refer to it and discuss it, but you must make your own independent judgment, bear your own gains and losses, and invest rationally. Don’t follow blindly or blindly comply. Keep your own trading principles.
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Thank you all for your recognition. In this world, nothing can be more unpayable than genuine sincerity. My wish is: may peaches and plums fill the world