Duan Yongping publicly clarified on March 30: retracting his previous statement that he would not invest in Pop Mart.

The timing is very subtle — Pop Mart just reported its strongest financial results ever (revenue of 37.1 billion yuan, net profit of 13.1 billion yuan, net profit margin of 35%, comparable to Moutai), yet its stock price plummeted 22% on the day of the earnings report, dropping from a high of 339 HKD to 146 HKD, halving in value.
What did Duan Yongping see? My judgment: he is following the same old path he took when investing in Pinduoduo — "not understanding the business model, but understanding the people."
Wang Ning, in the best year of performance, proactively hit the brakes (guidance only 20% growth), which in Duan Yongping’s view is likely not a negative signal but the strongest sign of corporate culture.
But Pop Mart is not Moutai. Its current market value is three times that of Sanrio (the parent company of Hello Kitty, with a 50-year history), and Funko’s collapse is imminent. LABUBU contributed nearly 40% of revenue. The demand for emotional value is eternal, but the lifespan of the carrier is not.
I wrote a research report covering the reasons for the sharp decline, Duan Yongping’s complete logical chain, and three valuation scenarios for reference. Interested readers can check it out — the formatting is much better than on X.