ShouChuang Futures: Guinea may restrict bauxite exports, aluminum oxide surges

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-04T04:27:51+00:00

Recently, the price of alumina has risen due to Guinea's consideration of restricting bauxite exports. Despite cost support, new capacity will increase oversupply pressure, leading to greater overall volatility. It is expected that if oil prices fall back, alumina will face resistance at high levels.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-04 04:27:51

Abstract generation in progress

In recent times, alumina has shown strong performance. This is because Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite producer, is considering forcing miners to limit bauxite exports. As large volumes of bauxite are being developed and shipped to China, bauxite is displaying a clear state of supply oversupply. The weekly assessment of China’s CIF price for bauxite is $59–62 per dry ton, which has basically already approached the production cost of mid-sized mines in Guinea. Today, alumina rose by more than 2% at one point, mainly also driven by a surge in energy prices, and then made a small pullback. Although there is cost support, there are new alumina projects coming online recently (2.4 million tons), so the overall overcapacity pressure on alumina will be greater. Under the game between bulls and bears, alumina volatility has increased. And if the impact of oil prices eases, alumina may face pressure while trading at high levels, with 2800 yuan or thereabouts potentially offering some support. (Capital Futures)

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