Recently, I noticed that Egrag released an interesting macro analysis framework for XRP. This well-known on-chain analyst has been optimistic about XRP. This time, he drew a W-shaped pattern from the monthly chart perspective, and the overall idea is quite clear.

According to Egrag's logic, XRP's price movement over the past six years has completed the first part of the W-shaped pattern, and now it is in the middle of the second part. A breakout is expected in 2025. Since October last year, it has entered a correction phase, with this correction dropping over 56% from the high. However, Egrag believes this is a typical W-shaped pattern—breakout, correction, then expansion.

How to interpret this specifically? Egrag pointed out several key levels: first, holding the 1.60-1.80 range is crucial, as it is a retest of the previous breakout above 1.60. More importantly, the 2.00 level—if XRP can stay above 2.00, it confirms that the bullish structure is still intact. In that case, the first target is 3.30, with potential for even higher levels afterward.

Regarding target prices, Egrag provided probability distributions. He believes there is a 25%-35% chance that XRP will eventually rise to $22, which is a more aggressive scenario. A more conservative expectation is a 50%-60% probability that XRP will top out in the $3-$8 range. Of course, there is also a failure scenario, with about a 10%-15% chance.

What could invalidate this analysis? Egrag mentioned two key failure signals: if the price falls below the support zone of 1.20-1.40, it would mean the correction could turn into a long-term downtrend; or if XRP fails to reclaim 2.00 and even shows a false breakout, the bullish narrative would collapse.

I checked the latest data—XRP is currently trading around 1.31, up 0.53% in the past 24 hours. From Egrag’s perspective, we are now at that critical retest zone. The 1.60-2.00 range is indeed a decisive area. If XRP can hold here, the story could become very interesting. Many traders are probably watching this range closely to see if XRP can complete the second part of the W-shaped pattern as described by Egrag.