CITIC Construction Investment: Optimistic about the investment value of lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery sectors

CITIC Construction Investment Research reports that high oil prices are accelerating the global electrification trend, and strong lithium battery sector conditions are driving an increase in equipment demand. As the situation in the Middle East escalates and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, geopolitical conflicts may cause international energy prices, represented by crude oil, to remain at relatively high levels for the long term. Lithium batteries, as an emerging power and energy storage solution, are set to benefit significantly. The expansion pace of leading battery companies is accelerating; orders for core lithium battery equipment such as stacking, coating, formation, and other processes are rebounding quickly. The construction of pilot lines for solid-state batteries is also being stepped up in parallel. Equipment-side tenders and deliveries have entered a dense period. With the demand-driven logic for the sector being clear, high oil prices and high downstream sector conditions are forming a resonance. We continue to look favorably on the allocation value of lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery sectors.

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Tesla preheats Optimus V3, AIDC power generation equipment continues to benefit from North American power shortages

Humanoid robots: Tesla releases video content to further preheat Optimus V3, and the sector gradually enters the allocation range. Tesla releases a video and captions it, saying that Optimus will be the greatest product in history. Tesla emphasizes that Optimus also places great importance on design and manufacturing. The current goal is to achieve large-scale mass production as soon as possible. Optimus V3 continues to be preheated; future product releases and progress on mass production are worth重点关注. IPO progress for domestic robotics companies such as Unitree Technology continues. These companies have high value per unit of their core products and are close to end customers. Their position in the industry chain is significant and their brand strength is prominent. Core equipment manufacturers are expected to see a valuation re-rating. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant supply chains. The current robotics sector is gradually entering the allocation range; Unitree’s IPO and Tesla’s V3 are both building momentum and are poised to launch.

AIDC power generation equipment: Power shortages remain the main storyline for the whole year, and we firmly favor the gas turbine industry chain. Based on our calculations, global gas turbine demand will exceed 120GW in 2028. We expect global gas turbine supply of about 90GW, with the gap continuing to expand. We continue to favor the gas turbine industry chain as well as trends such as converting ships to gas-fueled operations.

Construction machinery: We expect March excavator domestic sales to recover year over year and maintain growth on an annual basis, while exports remain at a high growth rate. In January to February 2026, a total of 35,934 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. Of this: domestic sales were 15,478 units, down 9.19% year on year; exports were 20,456 units, up 38.8% year on year. There is a slight single-digit decline year over year in the domestic market, but export performance is strong. Overseas markets are the main contributor to profit. Considering exchange rate factors, we still expect overall Q1 performance of the OEMs to hold up well. We expect that in 2026 the domestic market will achieve growth of more than 10%, and exports are expected to achieve growth of more than 15%. Overall, domestic and overseas demand are expected to continue to resonate upward.

Semiconductor equipment: SEMICON exhibition concluded successfully. We felt the following: (1) The number of attendees from the Japan and South Korea regions was clearly higher than in past years; early signs of equipment going overseas appeared. Companies emphasizing independent intellectual property are expected to achieve large-scale overseas expansion first; (2) Core equipment manufacturers launching new products are increasingly focused on vertical extensions, emphasizing progress in advanced process technology; (3) Last year’s high-attention newcomer XinKailai did not attend the exhibition. Its subsidiaries Wanliyan and Qiyunfang participated and sent out signals, including the release of spectrum analyzers, EDA software, and others. (4) Compared with the overall level of industry optimism, both back-end equipment orders and performance achieved strong growth. Overall, we remain firmly confident in the investment opportunities in the sector. In terms of downstream capacity expansion, we expect that in 2026 fab companies’ capital expenditures will still move upward. Among these, storage has the strongest certainty, and advanced logic is expected to continue to show strong performance. In terms of the localization rate, downstream players are generally accelerating validation and introduction of domestic equipment. The localization progress for components—especially module-type components—is expected to speed up. The sector’s overall fundamentals are favorable. In this round, we should pay even more attention to “de-Japanization.”

Lithium battery equipment: High oil prices are accelerating the global electrification trend, and strong lithium battery conditions are driving an increase in equipment demand. As the situation in the Middle East escalates and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, geopolitical conflicts may cause international energy prices, represented by crude oil, to remain at relatively high levels for the long term. Lithium batteries, as an emerging power and energy storage solution, are set to benefit significantly. The expansion pace of leading battery companies is accelerating; orders for core lithium battery equipment such as stacking, coating, formation, and other processes are rebounding quickly. Pilot line construction for solid-state batteries is also being stepped up simultaneously, and equipment-side tendering and deliveries have entered a dense period. Currently, the demand-driven logic for the sector is clear; high oil prices and high downstream sector conditions are forming a resonance. We continue to look favorably on the allocation value of lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery sectors.

Risk warning: risks related to fluctuations in domestic macroeconomic conditions, risks related to fluctuations in overseas markets, and risks that downstream capacity expansion fails to meet expectations.

（Source: First Finance）