Middle East ceasefire expectations heat up! U.S. intelligence agencies suddenly reveal big news!

Middle East ceasefire expectations are picking up, and global stock markets are staging a major rebound.

Overnight, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher together, with the Nasdaq surging more than 1% and storage-chip concept shares soaring across the board. European stock markets also rose across the board, with Europe’s STOXX 50 up more than 3%, Germany’s DAX30 up more than 2%, and France’s CAC40 up more than 2%.

Market analysts have said that U.S. President Trump’s remarks hinted that the Middle East conflict may be nearing its end, boosting investors’ risk appetite. Investors are betting that U.S. and Israel’s military actions against Iran may soon come to an end. In addition, a sharp drop in international oil prices has also eased concerns in the market about inflation making a comeback.

The market is currently paying close attention to the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations. According to China Central Television (CCTV) News, local time on April 1, U.S. officials said that in recent assessments, multiple U.S. intelligence agencies believe that the Iranian government currently has no intention of participating in substantive negotiations aimed at ending the U.S.-Iran war. Iranian sources said that Iran requires that ceasefire talks with the United States must be based on ensuring the war ends permanently.

Broad-based rally

On April 1, U.S. Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher and kept climbing. By the close, the Dow rose 0.48%, the Nasdaq rose 1.16%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.72%.

Large technology stocks generally rose. Google Class A surged more than 3%, Tesla rose more than 2%, and Meta, Amazon, TSMC ADR, and Broadcom rose more than 1%, while Nvidia and Apple closed slightly higher.

U.S. chip stocks rallied across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 2.82%, including Intel up more than 8%. Previously, the company agreed to repurchase Apollo Global Management’s stake in its Irish chip factory for $14.2 billion, allowing it to regain full control of one of its key manufacturing assets. Storage-chip concept shares surged collectively, with Western Digital up more than 10%, SanDisk up more than 9%, and Micron Technology and Seagate Technology up more than 8%.

U.S. aluminum stocks also rose collectively. U.S. Steel and Century Aluminum both rose more than 8%. The latest market news said that after the Tavira (Al Taweelah) smelter plant—owned by Al Taweelah (EGA), the largest aluminum producer in the Middle East—was hit by Iranian missiles and drones over last weekend, it was forced to stop operations due to a “runaway shutdown” of its smelting equipment.

European stock markets also closed higher across the board. The STOXX 50 in Europe, Italy’s FTSE MIB index, and Spain’s IBEX 35 index all rose more than 3%, while Germany’s DAX30 index and France’s CAC40 index both rose more than 2%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 index rose nearly 2%.

That day, Trump said that U.S. military action has made it impossible for Iran to have nuclear weapons, and the United States will withdraw from Iran soon, but if necessary, it can carry out another “targeted strike.”

He will also deliver remarks at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time on April 1 (9:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 2) to brief the latest developments in the Iran war.

Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, said: “Trump’s remarks often change. The market is trying to interpret his true intentions. What investors want to hear are positive signals, and they hope the war can end.”

Thomas Mathews, head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Macro, said in a report that although signals of easing tensions have boosted market sentiment, even if the war ends soon, its impact in many aspects will still persist.

He added: “What’s worth thinking about is, if the war ends quickly, how will the market perform? If sentiment continues improving, will there still be room for upside in the market? The answer is almost certainly—yes.”

Uncertainties in the negotiations

At present, the U.S.-Iran negotiations still have some uncertainty.

On April 2, according to CCTV News, local time on the 1st, several U.S. officials said that in recent assessments, multiple U.S. intelligence agencies believe that the Iranian government currently has no intention of participating in substantive negotiations aimed at ending the U.S.-Iran war. These officials said that the relevant assessment reports indicate that the Iranian government believes it is in a favorable position in the war, and therefore does not need to accept the diplomatic demands put forward by the United States.

The officials also said that although Iran is willing to keep communication channels open, it does not trust the United States and does not believe that U.S. President Trump is serious about the negotiations. Over the past year, Trump had twice ordered attacks on Iran while the two sides were negotiating over Iran’s nuclear program. The assessment results above are consistent with recent statements by Iranian officials. Iranian officials rebutted Trump’s claim that discussions between the two sides, facilitated by other countries, are making progress.

Iranian sources said that Iran requires that ceasefire talks with the United States must be premised on ensuring that the war ends permanently.

The sources also said that the mediators made contact with the Iranian side on March 31 to exchange views on continuing to advance diplomatic dialogue. But as of now, the United States and Iran have not officially launched ceasefire talks through the mediators.

On the same day, according to Iranian sources, Iran’s top leader’s foreign policy adviser and former Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharazi was targeted in an attack by the United States and Israel; he suffered severe injuries, and his wife was killed.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said that Iran is prepared to respond to any form of attack, including a ground offensive.

Baghaei said that for Iran, the top priority is to defend the country against aggression. Iran’s armed forces and the people have prepared for various scenarios and will respond to any incoming attack, making the enemy pay the price.

Baghaei also said that Iran has received information from the U.S. through third parties including Pakistan, but has not held direct talks with the United States. He also noted that the demands put forward by the United States are “excessive and unreasonable.”

Iran’s Defense Ministry spokesperson Reza Taleenik said that Iran’s ultimate goals of retaliatory actions against the United States and Israel include the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East region and the complete destruction of U.S. military bases in that region.

Taleenik said that Iran will ensure that the relevant actions cause “reciprocal damage” to the opponent, ensure that no new war occurs again in Iran and surrounding areas, and maintain regional sovereignty and security stability. He also said that Iran’s armed forces will continue to coordinate with the regional “Resistance Front” until the stated objectives are achieved.

（Source: Securities China）