Agency: U.S. Labor Market Remains Fragile, 40% Probability of Recession

AirdropBlackHole · 2026-04-04T00:41:17+00:00

Lydia Boussour from EY-Parthenon highlighted that while U.S. employment rebounded in March, the labor market remains fragile, with cautious hiring due to policy uncertainty. She predicts selective hiring and rising unemployment by 2026, alongside a 40% recession risk.

AirdropBlackHole

2026-04-04 00:41:17

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On April 4, EY-Parthenon senior economist Lydia Boussour stated that despite a strong rebound in U.S. employment data for March, the labor market remains fragile. She believes that in an environment filled with policy uncertainty, companies are becoming more cautious, leading to a cooling in hiring intentions. Businesses are increasingly inclined to protect profit margins and are responding by enhancing productivity rather than expanding their workforce. “Looking ahead, we expect the labor market to be essentially frozen by 2026, characterized by selective hiring, limited wage growth, and strategic personnel adjustments amid historically tight labor supply,” Boussour projected. She anticipates that job growth will be slightly below breakeven levels, with the unemployment rate gradually rising to around 4.7%. “Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, downside risks are predominant, with a 40% probability of recession,” she added. (Jin Shi)

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