The analysis indicated that if a potential agreement between the US and Iran reduces risks to oil prices, risky assets may shift focus to macroeconomic fundamentals. Conversely, it was noted that a larger-scale military operation by the US could trigger a shock to oil supplies, tighten financial conditions, and increase the likelihood of a global recession. Limited and short-term military intervention was believed to be more likely to cause a temporary increase in volatility rather than a sustained market trend.