I noticed an interesting phenomenon — Polymarket literally exploded into the Web3 space after the U.S. elections. While The Wall Street Journal and other media were still speculating about the results in swing states, this decentralized prediction platform was already confidently indicating a Trump victory. The platform’s creator, 26-year-old Shane Coplan, suddenly became one of the most discussed figures in the crypto community. Naturally, many questions arose.

But what interests me most is — why did such heated debates ignite immediately around Polymarket? After all, it’s not just another DeFi protocol; it’s a platform claiming to be a “truth machine.” And that’s where problems start.

The first thing that stands out is political bias. Shane Coplan appeared at the Republican National Convention in July, where he was photographed alongside Trump’s son and other Republicans. The photo was posted on Twitter by NYT reporter Teddy Schleifer. But here’s an interesting point — Coplan also hosted a party after the Democratic Convention and even took a photo with VP candidate Tim Waltz at a fundraiser for Harris.

So, what was that? Political stance or just marketing? Coplan himself swears that Polymarket is a nonpartisan tool. Peter Thiel, the main investor and co-founder of PayPal, is not even on the board of directors. But here’s the question — can we really trust such claims? Bloomberg reported that Polymarket handed out branded baseball caps at the Republican Convention, hired people as live billboards for $1050, and even placed posters on Manhattan with boxing-themed imagery, promoting Trump’s chances against Biden. This looks more like aggressive marketing blitz than an impartial platform.

Then, there was information that Polymarket hired well-known political polling analyst Nate Silver as a consultant. All of this creates the impression that the platform is very interested in its visibility and influence.

But the most intriguing part began when The Wall Street Journal published an article in October about possible market manipulation. It turns out Trump’s leading position on Polymarket might have been just a “momentum creation” through four accounts. The analytics firm Arkham Intelligence confirmed that these accounts belonged to a single organization. The market erupted with discussions.

However, it was later revealed that behind these massive bets was a French trader named Theo. He stated that he had worked at several American banks and was simply making money based on his personal opinion about the elections — no political motives involved. Polymarket conducted an investigation and concluded that there was no market manipulation. Theo was just very confident in his forecast.

Okay, manipulation is ruled out. But that’s not the end of the Polymarket story. The next issue is trading volumes. And here, the situation gets even murkier.

Chaos Labs, a blockchain risk analysis firm, released a report claiming that about one-third of the trading volume on presidential predictions could be fake transactions. Inca Digital went further and found a significant discrepancy between the data shown on Polymarket’s website and the actual data on the blockchain. According to their calculations, the actual volume was around $1.75 billion, while the platform claimed $2.7 billion. A difference of one billion dollars — that’s no typo.

Fake trading in Web3 applications is like the air we breathe. Platforms can conduct covert operations to make the numbers look more attractive. Plus, when discussions about a potential token start, many degens are ready to create false prosperity. In September, it was reported that Polymarket was considering raising over $50 million through a token launch.

This creates a serious problem. If a huge number of fake users flood the prediction market, their choices won’t reflect the true market sentiment. This undermines the very idea — using collective wisdom to predict events.

And now, the most interesting part — regulation. In January 2022, the CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million for operating in the U.S. without registration. The platform agreed to cease serving American users. Sounds good, right?

But here’s the catch. According to Bloomberg, many Americans can still access it via VPN. Moreover, Meta’s ad library shows that the owner of Polymarket spent about $270,000 on advertising on Facebook and Instagram targeting U.S. users — even after the fine. The platform’s senior director of growth even tried to arrange sponsorship deals with American Instagram influencers. Numerous posts with hashtags like #PMPartner и #PolymarketPartner appeared on American influencers’ pages.

A Polymarket representative swears that this was not aimed at encouraging trading among Americans. But it sounds like a classic case of “law-abiding in words, reckless in practice.”

What’s next? A resolution for Polymarket to emerge from this crisis would definitely help the entire Web3 industry. Coplan himself describes the platform as an “alternative news source” and “the future of media.” An ambitious idea.

But here’s a serious question — what happens next? The U.S. elections are over, and the hot topic has disappeared. How will the platform develop without such a magnet for attention? Perhaps launching a token will be the next step to sustain growth. But then, it’s crucial to remember the main mission — providing people with accurate, non-manipulated forecasts.

For now, Polymarket looks like a platform with great potential but serious questions about transparency, regulation, and data integrity. It doesn’t mean the idea is bad — it means we need to be more critical and attentive. Such an approach will help Web3 develop in the right direction.