Multiple industry tracks are building momentum to unlock new growth opportunities in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period

In 2030, the scale of China’s commercial aerospace core industries is expected to reach 1.67 trillion yuan, and the scale of the core industries of the intelligent economy is expected to reach 12.6 trillion yuan… At the 2026 CECI Forum held on April 2, multiple latest research findings showed that during the “15th Five-Year Plan period” (2026–2030), emerging pillar industries and the artificial intelligence industry sector will maintain a rapid development momentum, opening up new space for growth.

This year’s Government Work Report proposes “developing emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, biopharmaceuticals, and the low-altitude economy,” pointing the way forward for efforts to accelerate the growth and expansion of emerging pillar industries.

Chen Yanbin, President of the Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that in 2025 the output value of China’s six emerging pillar industries is already close to 6 trillion yuan. It is expected that by 2030 the related output value could double or even more, expanding to over 10 trillion yuan.

“To keep China’s economy stable, maintain economic operation within a reasonable range, we must find new growth engines and new drivers of momentum. Emerging pillar industries are an important support and guarantee for expanding employment capacity, increasing fiscal revenue, stabilizing social expectations, and building development confidence. More importantly, emerging pillar industries have a strong degree of industrial linkage and a radiation-driven effect. They can create a multiplier effect of ‘when one industry thrives, many industries prosper,’” he said.

Taking commercial aerospace and biological manufacturing as examples, the “Research on Trends in the High-Quality Development of China’s Commercial Aerospace” released that day shows that, based on estimates, in 2025 the scale of China’s commercial aerospace core industries will reach 1.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 7%. It is expected that during the “15th Five-Year Plan period,” the commercial aerospace core industries’ compound annual growth rate will reach around 11%, and that by 2030 the scale of core industries is expected to reach 1.67 trillion yuan. In addition, in the field of biological manufacturing, the “Research on AI Empowering Biological Manufacturing” estimates that in 2027 the scale of China’s synthetic biology manufacturing industry will exceed 170 billion yuan.

Guan Bing, Director of the Institute of Industrial Economics, China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, said that during the “15th Five-Year Plan period,” the development of emerging industries will shift from “quantity expansion” to “quality improvement.” In the future, it will be necessary to focus on areas including innovation transformation, regional coordination, scenario-based applications, and factor support. This includes increasing investment in basic research,重点 supporting “original breakthroughs from 0 to 1,” cultivating high-level innovation carriers, and implementing large-scale application demonstration actions for new technologies, new products, and new scenarios. It is also necessary to gradually open up application scenarios and landmark scenario projects, and to promote demonstration application of new technologies such as the low-altitude economy and intelligent robots.

Qiao Biao, Deputy Director of the Planning Department under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the breakthrough points for emerging industries often are not necessarily technological breakthroughs, but rather the “chemical reaction” of “technology + scenarios.” “For an industry to stand firm and go far, it doesn’t rely on one or two leading technologies, but on coordinated development across the entire industrial ecosystem. We need to enable innovation factors to flow freely, ensure that all links can connect smoothly, and help companies of different types find their own positions,” he said.

New forms of the intelligent economy have begun to take shape and are increasingly becoming an important engine for driving economic transformation and upgrading, as well as a new growth pole. The “Research on the Development of the Intelligent Economy” released at the forum shows that in 2025 the core industries of the intelligent economy achieved operating revenue of 16.7k yuan, with a three-year compound growth rate of over 54%. It is expected that by 2030 the scale will reach 126k yuan, accounting for 25.1% of revenue from businesses related to the digital industry.

“Our intelligent economy is still at an early stage where rules and algorithms dominate, and the capabilities of large models are only initially embedded,” said Gao Yingyi, Deputy Director of the Institute of Informatization and Software Industry Research, China Academy of Information and Communications Technology. He said that in the future, ten areas of new quality productivity—such as accelerating the commercialization of large models, the data market taking shape across the board, accelerating the development of “AI + terminals,” and intelligent driving of industrial transformation—are worth watching.

Attending participants said that during the “15th Five-Year Plan period,” efforts should be accelerated to promote “artificial intelligence +” to empower traditional industries, open up new space for economic growth as soon as possible, and cultivate new business models while strengthening new momentum.

Wang Yiming, former Vice Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that during the “15th Five-Year Plan period,” global technological innovation will enter a period of dense and active development, with cutting-edge technologies emerging in a concentrated manner. Artificial intelligence is the core driving force behind the new round of technological revolution. With big data, large models, and massive computing power deeply integrated and rapidly iterated and upgraded, artificial intelligence is being pushed toward directions such as autonomous learning, strengthened human-machine collaboration, and network-based swarm intelligence. This will break through the boundaries of traditional production possibilities and bring profound changes and innovation across many industrial fields.

“Technologies such as AI are pushing industrial systems to leap toward self-learning, self-optimization, and intelligent decision-making,” said Zhang Li, President of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology. “We should implement in depth the special campaign of ‘AI + manufacturing,’ accelerate application empowerment for key industries, and cultivate a new ecosystem for integrated development of intelligent manufacturing. While fully releasing the driving power of data factors, we should actively participate in the formulation of global data security rules to promote broad-based sharing of digital technologies.”

[(Intern) Dong Yujun also made contributions to this article]