A very flavorful Friday + market sentiment before the holiday drops to freezing point

2026-04-03 14:31:48

Today is the last trading day before the Qingming holiday, and sure enough the A-share market couldn’t withstand the shock of risk-avoidance sentiment—it printed a thinly traded intraday session with a gap up, then a fade, resulting in a shrinking-amount bearish candle.

[Taoguba]
Trading plan today—

I just followed through on “buying whenever it’s down,” pressing for red; any time it wasn’t up to expectations, I immediately saw the quick sell-off!
Took profits from Guan Rui and Guan Wanbangde, took profits from VMWare (泛微), locked in two days of solid gains from Dian Guang; but when it wasn’t up to expectations, it was instant profit-taking and a massive loss offload—took the losses and exited Shenzhen South?

3. Hengtong keeps the position unchanged! New positions: Zhongtian and Yongding at the low end!

Arbitrage: Si Te convertible bonds, arbitrage: Hong Kong stock connect ETF honey, arbitrage: Su Li convertible bonds honey, and a new entry arbitrage: Pulian convertible bonds honey!
Follow the Hong Kong stocks—Swiss International honey! All of the above are T0 intraday arbitrage; strike fast, decide quickly, don’t hold overnight. Today was one of the most pleasant trading days.

Let’s look at the tape. Today’s decline was extremely obvious:

Indexes lose key levels: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.00%, closing at 3880.10 points, and once again failed to hold the 3900-point round-number level. The whole day basically showed a single-direction, choppy-to-lower pattern.

Broad-based stock declines, with a strong “losing money” effect: More than 4700 stocks across the entire market fell, while only a little over 700 advanced. Even more noteworthy: the number of stocks hitting the daily limit down (41) exceeded those hitting the daily limit up (38)—the first time this has happened this year. This indicates that market panic and selling pressure have reached a short-term extreme.

Trading volume shrank sharply: The total turnover for both markets dropped significantly to around 1.67 trillion yuan, hitting a new intra-year low. This reflects that under the dual pressures of the long holiday and geopolitical uncertainty, off-balance-sheet funds are holding back and staying cautious, while on-balance-sheet funds choose to exit when prices are high—very low willingness to trade.

Sectors rotate quickly; chasing highs is extremely risky:

Yesterday’s strong leaders like oil & gas and agriculture led the market higher, but today they directly turned into the biggest decliners. Even though tech themes like CPO and optical communications showed some resistance during the session, they couldn’t form a concerted force by the close. Do you like this “rotating ceiling fan” style of rapid sector rotation? It’s right—love it and hate it at the same time, because it rapidly traps chasing high funds.
To be honest, there were a bunch of 20-centimeter limit-up moves.

Pre-holiday effects are amplified; combined with external uncertainty, funds have no intention of fighting it out, and market sentiment drops to an icy low.

In a choppy market: a hands-on “quick win” strategy

When you’re in this kind of rapid sector rotation and weak profit-taking effect, if you want to “strike fast and cash in quickly,” the core is to control position size, execute flexible T-trades, and follow strict discipline. Arbitrage is the main approach—never enter and exit with full position size. Otherwise, if your judgment is wrong, you’ll end up in a passive situation.

In one sentence: discipline and mindset—lock in profits, don’t be greedy or afraid. This is the essence of “quick win, strike fast.”

Watch more, move less—wait for the moment: In a market like today where sentiment is at an all-time low and direction is unclear, the best action might be “don’t trade.” Wait patiently for sentiment to recover, or only act when a clear right-side signal appears.

Strict stop-loss: once the market moves opposite your expectations and breaks below a key support level (the 3850-point area under the Shanghai Index), you must decisively carry out discipline and control the drawdown.

Wishing all fellow traders a joyful trade, joyful wealth—grateful for the encounter

CPO and optical fiber logic: these two days have risks. Congrats to fellow traders for the big honey for two consecutive days

Every Friday I reminded everyone about risks and做好防守 (defense). That’s pretty sincere, fellow Dao friend

The stock market has risk—invest carefully

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