Relying solely on diplomacy without the use of force, can the UK and France open the Strait of Hormuz?

As the Houthi Strait blockade crisis continues to escalate, the United Kingdom and France are working together to push forward a multilateral effort centered on diplomatic means, aiming to restart this crucial global energy artery without resorting to military force—but the road ahead is full of uncertainty.

According to CCTV News, French President Emmanuel Macron said on April 2, local time, that it is “unrealistic” to “liberate” the Strait of Hormuz through military action. Macron also said that the U.S. and Israel’s military action against Iran is “not our action”; it is an action that “the Americans and the Israelis decide on their own.” The latest reports show that a container ship registered as French, the “CMA CGM Kribi,” has left the strait, possibly the first known West European-linked vessel to pass since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. The ship broadcasts its location publicly throughout and sails close to Iran’s coastline.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper chaired an online meeting involving about 40 countries, with participants calling for the strait to be “reopened immediately and without conditions.” Reports say the UN Security Council may vote on a related draft resolution on Friday.

The blockade of the strait has dealt a clear blow to global energy markets—crude oil prices have surged significantly, and European diesel prices have reached the highest level in four years. Even though European countries such as the UK and France are not participating in this war, they are bearing heavy spillover costs. As a result, the outlook for economic growth across the European continent is under clear downward pressure. How far this multilateral diplomacy can go remains uncertain. Iran’s offer, the direction of the Security Council vote, and how to provide a decent “way out” for Trump without escalating the conflict will determine the final success or failure of this effort.

Diplomatic offensive: 40-nation joint call; Security Council may vote

On Thursday, Yvette Cooper convened an online meeting of about 40 countries. The participants include Japan, Australia, Canada, and some Gulf states, and neither the United States nor Iran was invited. In a statement after the meeting, Cooper pointed out that Iran is trying to “hold the global economy hostage” via the Strait of Hormuz. All parties issued a consistent call to “reopen the strait immediately and without conditions,” and to respect the principles of freedom of navigation and international maritime law. The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization said at the meeting that the strait “can’t be locked down”; what is urgently needed are diplomatic engagement, pragmatic and neutral solutions, and coordinated and consistent international action.

Meanwhile, Zayani, the current chair of the Gulf Cooperation Council and Bahrain’s foreign minister, said at the UN Security Council that the Security Council may vote on April 3 on a related draft resolution. The resolution is intended to support a range of measures aimed at pushing for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Zayani told members of the Security Council that he expects all parties to demonstrate a unified position in the vote.

Macron draws the line: This is not Europe’s war

During talks this week with Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takachi, Macron clearly rejected the option of opening the strait by force, saying doing so is “unrealistic”—even though the United States has not yet attempted to launch an attack on the Strait of Hormuz. Macron also said that the U.S.-Israel military action against Iran cannot “solve” Iran’s nuclear issue “in the long run.” “They decided on this action separately. After the fact, if they complain that no one helped them, they shouldn’t be surprised. This is not our action.” Macron said.

This statement reflects Europe’s strategic stance in this round of the crisis. Refusing to join the conflict and refusing to “seize oil” by force is both a politically responsible choice for voters at home and a legitimate countermeasure to Trump’s reckless behavior. However, as the blockade of the strait increasingly deepens its impact on Europe’s economy, this posture of watching from the sidelines is gradually transforming into active diplomatic involvement.

Kristina Kausch, a researcher at the German Marshall Fund, said:

“In the short term, reopening the Strait of Hormuz has become Europe’s top priority. Without U.S. involvement, Europe has no willingness to solve the problem through military means, which means it is necessary to reduce Iran’s motivation to continue blocking the strait.”

Latest reports show that on Thursday afternoon local time, the “CMA CGM Kribi” departed from waters near Dubai, heading toward Iran, and publicly broadcast information indicating that its shipowner is a French company. The ship sails close to Iran’s coastline, passing through the waterway between Qeshm Island and Larak Island, and broadcasts navigation information publicly throughout the entire journey. The action has been widely interpreted as a posture with clear intent, aiming to ensure that the ship completes its transit within the scope of Iran’s monitoring throughout. Worth noting is that during the entire voyage the ship publicly broadcasts location information and takes no covert or evasive measures.

Iran’s leverage: the biggest unknown in diplomatic mediation

The core challenge facing this multilateral effort is what price Iran is willing to pay in exchange for concessions. According to an analysis by Antonio Barroso of Bloomberg Economics Research, Tehran may demand the easing of economic sanctions as a condition for negotiations. Its insistence that the U.S. and Israel must not launch attacks again amounts to an almost impossible demand. Reports say Iran is jointly drafting an agreement with Oman to monitor the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the prolonged crisis has already produced spillover security effects on the European continent. French authorities have arrested and charged four people suspected of planning a bomb attack, with targets believed to be an area near the Paris offices of Bank of America. The incident is seen as a possible act of retaliation related to this war.

Economic pressure: the underlying logic behind Europe being forced to act

Europe’s decision to actively drive diplomacy is backed by clear economic motives. Roughly one-quarter of the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade has driven crude oil prices sharply higher, and European diesel prices have hit four-year highs. According to analyses, Germany’s economic growth rate this year may be cut in half; allies in the Gulf region are being hit by Iran’s missile strikes, and the risk of homegrown terror attacks on the European continent is also rising.

Japan imports nearly all its crude oil from the Middle East. Sanae Takachi and Macron are highly aligned on pushing for a ceasefire and de-escalation. According to a report by Bloomberg, if the UK-led multilateral call this time can avoid falling into a “talk shop” pattern, it could bring more rational Western allies back into this region that has already lost influence.

The mark of ultimate success will be to find a “step-down” path for Trump that does not rely on escalation through force. And for now, diplomacy remains the only option on the table.

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