$BTC The current geopolitical-driven oil inflation shackles have completely locked in the Federal Reserve's rate cut flexibility. Even if this month's non-farm payrolls show strong performance, it will only marginally reinforce the expectation of "higher interest rates for longer," without causing a disruptive impact on the rate cut path. Conversely, even if non-farm payrolls weaken significantly, expectations for rate cuts are unlikely to rise substantially. The ultimate outcome is that Bitcoin remains in a pattern of "strong resistance above, no strong support below," with the short-term core trend being resistant to pressure but weak, and oscillating bearish. A single non-farm payroll report is unlikely to reverse this overall logic.

Regardless of whether the non-farm data is good or bad, as long as the inflation pressure from oil persists and risk appetite in geopolitics does not rebound, there will always be strong resistance above Bitcoin. The weak pattern of weak rebounds and motivated declines will remain unchanged.