【Peak Opportunity Research】 Multiple domestic and international factors resonate to drive the industry, and power grid investment is expected to maintain long-term prosperity

China’s A-share three major indexes all pulled back today. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite fell 1%, the Shenzhen Component fell 0.99%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.73%. The combined trading value of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was under CNY 1.7 trillion, down nearly CNY 200 billion from yesterday. Sector performance showed a broad-based decline: utilities, power, coal, advertising and marketing, photovoltaic equipment, chemical raw materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, wind power equipment, and film and television cinema chain sectors led the declines. Only communication equipment, electronic chemicals, and rare earth sectors rose against the trend. In terms of individual stocks, the number of advancing stocks exceeded 700, with nearly 40 stocks hitting the daily limit**.**

In the domestic market, on April 2, according to information released by the State Grid, the company completed nearly CNY 130 billion in fixed-asset investment in the first quarter, up about 37% year on year, driving investment across the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to exceed CNY 250 billion. The State Grid will treat the 109 major projects specified in the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” outline as an important lever for expanding effective investment and promoting the implementation of the plan, accelerating the construction of key projects such as power transmission corridors, the power mutual-aid (power interconnection) project, and pumped-storage power stations. In addition, on March 30 to April 1, Li Qiang, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, conducted an investigation in Sichuan. He emphasized that we must implement the new energy security strategy well, adhere to innovation-led development, leverage strengths in resource endowments, continue to expand the supply of green electricity, focus on advancing the construction of a new type of power grid, accelerate the optimization and adjustment of the energy structure, and provide strong support for high-quality economic and social development.

Overseas, according to media reports, the construction of U.S. AI data centers has been hindered this year due to a shortage of high-power transformers, causing nearly half of planned projects to be postponed or canceled. Insufficient domestic production in the U.S. has lengthened the delivery cycle to 5 years, leading to a substantial increase in imports of China’s power equipment. In January–February 2026, China’s exports of high-power transformers were CNY 4.4 billion, up 61% year on year; exports to the U.S. surged 182%; and overall exports of power equipment increased 33.69% year on year.

CICC (China International Capital Corporation) stated that against the backdrop of load growth, the decommissioning of coal power/nuclear power, and the rising proportion of wind and solar, the risk of electricity shortages in multiple global regions is increasing, and the world is entering a new long-cycle period for power investment. A research report from Huafu Securities pointed out that power grid investment shows an “internal and external resonance” pattern: sentiment improves, ultra-high-voltage transmission is landing in dense batches, regional main grid infrastructure is being accelerated in parallel, and overseas expansion adds another new growth pole.

CICC: With the global power investment big cycle, power equipment is set to gain export opportunities

During the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period, the annual growth rate of national power grid project investment is expected to be able to reach 5% or more. Ultra-high-voltage construction is expected to maintain high intensity under demand from large wind/solar bases and hydropower power exports, with main grid investment staying at a high level; from a long-term perspective, distribution network investment looks favorable for the direction of intelligent upgrades and retrofits. In addition, with the global power investment big cycle, power equipment is迎来 export opportunities. Against the backdrop of load growth, the decommissioning of coal power/nuclear power, and an increasing share of wind and solar, the risk of electricity shortages across multiple global regions is rising, and the world is entering a new long-cycle period for power investment. Since this year, China’s transformer exports have grown rapidly. We continue to look favorably on Chinese power equipment companies strengthening overseas expansion, as profit elasticity is released and opportunities arise for the gas turbine and SOFC industry chain to break into overseas markets.

Huafu Securities: Power grid investment shows an internal and external resonance pattern

Power grid investment shows an internal and external resonance pattern, with improving sentiment, ultra-high-voltage infrastructure being rolled out in dense batches, regional main grid networks being accelerated in sync, and overseas expansion adding another new growth pole. A research report from Cixin Securities said that in the first year of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan,” the government work report提出 work tasks such as power construction and coordinated development with computing power. Combining China State Grid and China Southern Power Grid’s large-scale investment plans, policy measures and physical investment are being deployed together. It recommends focusing on ultra-high-voltage equipment manufacturers, distribution network equipment manufacturers, and power grid equipment manufacturers that lead in export share to overseas markets.

Galaxy Securities: State Grid will maintain relatively high investment intensity during the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period

Under the dual-carbon goals, rapid improvements in energy transition targets on the generation side and demand on the load side such as AIDC and new energy vehicles are the core drivers for the power system’s transformation and upgrading. During the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” period, State Grid planned investment of CNY 2.4 trillion, with actual investment reaching about CNY 2.85 trillion. During the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period, if investment intensity is calculated at CNY 4 trillion, the implied annualized CAGR is about 6%. It is predicted that during the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period, power grid investment could reach CNY 5 trillion. Overall, during the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period, State Grid will maintain relatively high investment intensity. Strengthening investment in ultra-high-voltage and backbone networks and improving interconnection capabilities, increasing investment in upgrading urban and rural distribution networks and their load-bearing capacity, and enabling the power grid’s intelligent transformation and dispatch capabilities are the core directions for future power grid investment.

AVIC Securities: Global power grid investment is likely to enter a period of improving cycle conditions

To achieve energy security, reduce costs, and support green transformation, global power grid investment is expected to enter a period of improving cycle conditions. China’s State Grid proposed investment of CNY 4 trillion during the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period, representing a 40% increase versus the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan.” Europe has proposed a package plan for power grids, with expectations that it will unlock EUR 1.2 trillion in power grid investment. The U.S.‘s three major grid operators launched a combined $75 billion plan for upgrading and retrofitting power transmission and transformation infrastructure. Global AI investment is in full swing, and in the next five years it could drive a market worth over $17k. Directions for global grid upgrades include ultra-high-voltage and main grid upgrades, intelligent upgrades for distribution networks, and microgrids on the end-user side, virtual power plants, and off-grid use. The power equipment industry will fully benefit from improved global grid investment sentiment, and domestic power grid equipment companies will also gain opportunities for overseas expansion.

Chengtong Securities: Global power grid investment is expected to remain in a long-term favorable cycle

Global power grid investment will continue to grow to respond to the impact on grids caused by the continuously increasing share of global wind and solar generation. It is expected that global power grid investment will remain in a long-term favorable cycle. On the generation side, benefiting from the rapid growth of wind power and photovoltaic industries, global investment on the power source side has in recent years grown significantly faster than investment on the grid side. On one hand, this boosts demand for grid connection and step-up equipment; on the other hand, the power grid needs to increase investment to deal with the impact brought about by the rising share of wind and solar generation. On the grid side, power equipment in developed economies is aging, and equipment with more than 20 years of service makes up a high proportion, creating urgent demand for replacement and upgrades. Domestic power grid equipment companies will benefit from the upward shift in the investment growth center of gravity of power grids, while overseas export businesses are also expected to maintain stable growth.

Cixin Securities: Transformer export drivers show an expansion in scope

With the rapid growth of global spending on power infrastructure, transformers—typical power grid equipment—have strong overseas demand. Export scale continues to break new highs on top of a high base, and transformer export drivers show an expansion in scope.

( This article does not constitute any investment advice. Investors act at their own risk, and all consequences are their own responsibility. There are risks in the market; investment should be cautious. )

（Source: Eastmoney Research Center）