Europe is preparing for the worst: energy may really be insufficient.

Middle East fighting continues to disrupt global energy markets, and Europe is preparing for the worst-case scenario.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, in an interview with the UK’s Financial Times, warned that this energy shock will be “long-lasting,” as the EU is assessing “all possible options,” including limiting fuel supply and further tapping into strategic reserves.

He said clearly, “For some more critical products, we expect conditions to worsen further in the coming weeks.” This is the most severe public statement by an EU official so far during this round of crisis.

The aviation industry has felt the pressure first, with multiple airlines expressing deep concern about the outlook for jet fuel supplies. The continued rise in energy prices and worries about long-term supply are spreading throughout the European economy.

The Strait of Hormuz is nearly closed, and energy markets are in chaos

The Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes—is currently nearly closed, while energy infrastructure in the Gulf region continues to be hit, throwing global energy markets into turmoil and sending oil prices sharply higher.

Dan Jørgensen described the current situation as a “long crisis,” saying “energy prices will remain high for a long time.” He noted that the EU has not yet fallen into a “supply security crisis,” but Brussels is already drawing up plans to address the conflict’s “structural, long-lasting impacts.”

“Our wording and tone are more serious than in the early stages of the crisis,” he said:

“That is indeed our assessment—this will be a drawn-out situation, and countries need to ensure they have sufficient reserves.”

Limited supply and strategic reserves: worst-case scenario plans are being prepared

On specific countermeasures, Dan Jørgensen said the EU is evaluating the possibility of limiting the supply of key products such as jet fuel and diesel, although he emphasized that it is currently “not yet at the stage” where execution is actually required. “It’s better to make plans in advance than to regret it later,” he said.

On strategic reserves, Dan Jørgensen said he does not rule out another round of drawing down oil strategic reserves, “if the situation worsens further.” Last month, EU member states participated in the largest-ever action to release strategic oil reserves in an effort to curb price increases.

He declined to reveal the EU’s “precise judgment” on when it would need to release reserves again, but said, “We attach great importance to this, and if it becomes necessary, we are ready to act at any time.” “We need to keep options open. If this crisis continues for the long term as I expect, we will need these tools in the subsequent phase as well,” he added, “but timing must be precise, and the力度 must be proportionate to the situation.”

Discussions to loosen fuel standards get underway, but rules have not been changed

Discussions regarding regulatory standards for jet fuel have also been put on the agenda. There are differences between the EU and the U.S. regarding jet fuel freezing-point standards—the EU standard is minus 47 degrees Celsius, while the U.S. is minus 40 degrees Celsius. When asked whether the EU is considering relaxing standards to expand U.S. import sources, or allowing higher proportions of ethanol to be blended into automobile fuels, Dan Jørgensen said that, for now, it has “made no amendments or adjustments to the current regulations.”

However, he left room for flexibility:

“We are reviewing all possibilities. The more severe the situation, the more of course we need to factor legislative tools into the equation.”

On natural gas policy, Dan Jørgensen reiterated that the EU will not, within this year, terminate Russia’s LNG imports by amending EU legislation. He said the EU will rely more on additional supply from the United States and other partners, because these suppliers operate in a “free market” environment and are therefore acceptable.

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