Bitunix Analyst: Risks in the energy and industrial chains remain unresolved, policies maintain a tightening stance, and the market enters the "high inflation expectation locking liquidity" phase.

Mars Finance news. On April 3, April 3, the market’s core contradiction has moved further from the risk of outright war to a structural deadlock of “inflation that won’t cool down + policy that can’t pivot.” There are no signs of relief on the energy front: Russia’s exports are impaired, OPEC+ may still raise output, and the U.S. has not discussed releasing strategic reserves—together with the still highly uncertain passage situation through the Strait of Hormuz—keeping oil prices and diesel prices at elevated levels. At the same time, steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs, along with the potential expansion of drug tariffs, indicate that cost pressures are spreading from energy into a broader manufacturing and consumption system. Global supply-chain pressure has not been released; instead, it continues to expand.

In the policy domain, it further confirms that liquidity cannot provide support. Core Federal Reserve officials have clearly indicated a preference to hold steady, adjusting the liquidity structure through regulatory tools rather than rate cuts. The IMF more directly points out that there is almost no room for rate cuts in the coming year, meaning the market’s prior expectations for monetary easing have been systematically revised downward. Under the combination of energy-driven inflation and employment not yet showing clear deterioration, monetary policy is effectively locked within a restrictive range, leaving asset valuations without the conditions to re-expand.

Within this structure, capital behavior continues to shift toward conservatism and short-termism. Changes in gold reserves, as well as the fundamentals of technology and traditional industries, are diverging. BTC is still in a passive pricing state; the liquidity pressure zone around 69,400 has not been able to break through effectively, indicating that chase-buying momentum is insufficient. Liquidity around 65,500 continues to accumulate; if macro pressure is further strengthened, that area may still become a key release node.

Overall, the market has entered a triple-constrained environment of “high inflation expectations + policy constraints + war spreading.” With liquidity unable to loosen, supply chains remaining disrupted, and geopolitical risks lacking a clear path to “export,” price fluctuations will more reflect capital redistribution. In the short term, the market will continue to be in an unstable equilibrium.