When I look at the current macroeconomic landscape, it becomes clear why the crypto market is behaving the way it is. And most importantly — a bull run is not what’s happening right now; it’s what’s still ahead.

Let’s break it down step by step. Gold is soaring like crazy, leaving stocks and cryptocurrencies behind. Why? Because major players — China, Russia, India, and even the US itself — are actively buying up the yellow metal. This isn’t just investment demand. It’s a signal of a reassessment of trust in dollar reserves. When the US froze Russian assets, it was a wake-up call for the entire world: if you hold assets in dollars, they can be frozen at any moment for political reasons. From a game theory perspective, the rational choice is obvious — shift to gold and diversify further away from the dollar.

The US stock market is also rising, but without madness. And that makes sense. Pension funds of American office workers automatically pour money into the S&P 500 every month regardless of valuations. This creates a self-sustaining system of slow but steady growth. Plus, the US remains a magnet for global capital thanks to liquidity, tech giants like Apple and Microsoft, and developed infrastructure. This isn’t a bubble; it’s a structural advantage.

But here’s where it gets interesting. The US real estate market is frozen. $37 trillion worth of assets, but almost impossible to liquidate. High interest rates have locked everything down: no one is refinancing mortgages at higher rates, no one is selling homes or taking out new mortgages. It’s a liquidity trap — assets exist, but they can’t be used.

And here’s the key to everything. In 2021, people would have called the bullish crypto market a result of pandemic stimulus. But in reality, the fuel was real estate monetization. People sold homes, refinanced mortgages, took out loans secured by property, and all that liquidity flowed into crypto. That’s why a bull run is a phenomenon that requires specific macroeconomic conditions.

Currently, the crypto market has recovered about 25% from its 2021 peak, but the total market cap of cryptocurrencies is still only a tenth of gold’s value and less than one Nvidia. There’s no classic bull market. Why? Because there’s no large-scale influx of liquidity.

My opinion: the real bull run has not started yet. It should kick off around the second quarter of 2026. By then, the Fed will have lowered rates to a reasonable level, the real estate market will start to thaw, and accumulated liquidity will once again flow into risky assets, including crypto. If that happens, we could see a strong surge over the next year and a half. But by the end of 2027 or early 2028, the excitement might turn into a bubble that will burst, especially considering the political uncertainty ahead of the presidential elections.

That’s why I continue accumulating positions on dips and waiting for that pivotal moment. A bull run is not what’s happening now — it’s what will happen when macroeconomic conditions align properly.