CICC Wealth Futures: Iron ore prices are supported to rise due to supply reduction rumors and demand recovery, but sustainability remains questionable.

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-03T00:46:21+00:00

The market continues to digest the structural liquidity contraction expectations triggered by rumors of BHP spot restrictions. Coupled with the lifting of environmental production restrictions at northern steel mills after the conference, the resumption of blast furnace operations has driven a marginal increase in pig iron output. In the short term, the phased resonance between supply-side volume reduction rumors and the reality of production resumption on the demand side supports a shift upward in the price center of the ore market. However, given that port absolute inventories remain high and profits at long-process steel mills have not yet substantially recovered, the peak and sustainability of pig iron incremental volume are uncertain. Strategically, it is advised to maintain a stance of testing short positions at high levels and conducting judgment-based assessments. (CICC Wealth Futures)

K-LinePoet

2026-04-03 00:46:21

The market continues to digest structural supply-tightening expectations sparked by rumors of BHP’s spot supply restrictions. Combined with the post-meeting reopening of environmental production limits at Northern steel mills, blast furnace restart progress has driven a marginal rebound in iron hot metal output. In the short term, the supply-side rumor of reduced volumes and the demand-side reality of resuming production have formed a stage-by-stage resonance, supporting an upward shift in the operational center of iron ore prices. However, given that absolute port inventories remain at a high level and long-process steel mills’ profits have not been materially repaired yet, the peak and sustainability of any increase in iron hot metal remain in question; strategically, we maintain the approach of probing for short opportunities when prices run high. (CICC Wealth Futures)

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