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3.8%
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Gate News, February 4th — According to data from a prediction platform, "the probability of a U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting over 70 days" has plummeted to 8%, a 45% decrease in 24 hours. As of now, the trading volume of the related contract has exceeded $1.27 million. The contract rules are as follows: if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's shutdown begins on February 14, 2026, and lasts at least the number of days listed in this market (including the start and end dates), then the payout will be "true"; otherwise, it will be "false." The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date of the funding bill allocated to restart the Department of Homeland Security signed by the President or enacted in another way; merely announcing the upcoming restart will not be counted. President Trump just announced that he is about to sign an order to pay the salaries of all U.S. Department of Homeland Security employees. Trump also thanked House Speaker Johnson and Thune for their work this week and praised the progress made by the Republican Party in Congress regarding the Department of Homeland Security.