[Red Envelope] April 2: Emotional Environment Index doubles down, on the night before Qingming, the day of withdrawals known as "life-and-death at the knife's edge"

Today in Suzhou, there is no rain.
Morning light filters through the thin mist, landing on the white walls and dark roofs of the Humble Administrator’s Garden. The air has a kind of dry, warm feeling. But I know this warm sunshine can’t reach my A-share account—today is withdrawal day, the most ruthless “Judgment Day” for liquidity conditions. A lot of people are especially baffled: they never learned how to make money by riding the current, yet they always want to buy the bottom against the trend. I don’t understand how anyone could think like that—and it’s not just one or two. If you haven’t learned to walk and you want to run, the market will teach you how things work, at the cost of your account, a bit too late. Yesterday everyone was arguing that things would turn around today—various data analyses, and I still don’t get it. I’m a newcomer; I haven’t learned that many “skills.” But intuition and sharpness—those are things the market taught me early on. Therefore, last night I said to stay in cash—don’t be impulsive. At the start of the open this morning, selling pressure hit hard; it was disappointing. Because I know this is a cannibal market. Respect for objective reality is something I’ve long internalized down to the bone. Trading isn’t a crowd-pleasing way to “exist” and win approval. It’s a real battlefield—there’s no room for the slightest slack, and it won’t sympathize with the weak. Because competition is, by nature, survival of the fittest! Cognitive-game trading—digging into each other’s pockets! [TaoGuba]

I usually reply to you guys with friendly banter, and after half a year on the platform I’ve gone a few days without posting my post-trade recap notes. Is it because after I trade I go straight to sleep and don’t watch the screen? Do I not get up in the morning, and don’t do a recap at night? Even being in cash is rare for me. Every time I give an early warning to stay in cash, you’d better take it seriously. There are more and more smart people in this market, and people with more knowledge are even more. What I always think is: what if my opponent is a finance PhD? Why should I make money off him? Only by working hard to keep improving. If you can’t beat me on “how quickly you悟,” then you should at least beat me on diligence first (and of course, luck—natural luck—is also a component you can’t ignore). I’m fortunate to meet a benefactor like my master, but you’ve met me too! Same good luck. My master has also met many disciples who wanted to learn from him—why did he choose me? That’s the key. You’ll encounter many high-caliber people too; whether you get accepted as a disciple—that’s the key. Otherwise, I’m too proud to bother. A summer insect can’t be spoken to about ice; we’re not in the same knowledge framework, so communication becomes unnecessary. What lies behind arrogance is the confidence from every prediction being correct—not showboating like a strategist after the fact.

Outside the Humble Administrator’s Garden, magnolia petals are scattered all over the ground, swept up by the dry wind. The waterway in the Shantang Street reflects a gray-white sky—not the damp stone slabs. This “no-rain” crisp dryness instead makes the market’s stickiness—“it wants to fall but it can’t fall all the way”—feel even more obvious. It’s like a dull blade cutting flesh; it’s more tormenting than a heavy downpour. Tonight’s rain really arrives as scheduled, just like today’s big A.

A system-driven, human-nature game
Today is the last withdrawal day before the holiday. (Under the T+1 settlement system, you sell today and can withdraw cash tomorrow.) This isn’t just a date—it’s the most ruthless liquidity pressure test for A-shares.
• Index reality: The Shanghai Composite fell 0.74% on shrinking volume, while the ChiNext Index plunged 2.31%. This isn’t a technical correction—it’s a liquidity dry-up.
• Liquidity password: Turnover value fell by 167 billion yuan versus yesterday. What’s shrunk away is the market’s soul. Incremental funds are watching from the sidelines, while stock funds are fleeing for their lives.
• Truth of price movement: More than 4,300 individual stocks are down. This isn’t broad-based selloff—it’s a systematic release of pressure.
Talking about “the bigger picture” on withdrawal day is a violation of the rules. Today’s sell pressure comes from countless ordinary families who just want to be able to celebrate the holiday safely, and from a natural avoidance of uncertainty. Chasing the relay against this flood is not bravery—it’s stupidity. Being in cash right now is not cowardice; it’s deep respect for market cycles and collective psychology.

The Lianban Maze: the Survivor’s Smile, and the Dance Beside the Cliff
On the surface, Xinghui Huancai (20cm, 3 straight limit-ups), Tongda Co., Ltd., and Xinzhonggang have indeed advanced. Tianyao Pharmaceutical even holds a 5-limit-up halo and becomes the market’s only torch.
But take a closer look at the brutality behind this “prosperity”:

1. Tianyao Pharmaceutical is sealed with a one-character limit-up. This is a feast for holders of chips; those outside can’t even touch the ticket.
2. Among the 3-limit-up stocks that succeeded in breaking through, none are exceptions: they all had volume contraction alongside acceleration. This means the only ones who can bite into this piece of meat are those who already had a position going in yesterday. Today they can stay calm—either lock the position, or choose a timing to realize profits. I got the first mover and even reached the top to take care of it; I don’t believe in its continuation. I’ll cash out with that mindset, then go for the weak and hold the strong—lightly testing with a first-limit-up position at the start of the trade. As for those old dragons with real feelings involved, I’m definitely adding a bit of position as well, to show thanks and support;
   What about people who only thought of entering today? This is like a play that’s already nearing its climax. You rush in and what you see might be the dazzling highlight, but more likely you’re facing the falling curtains and the bleak emptiness after the show when the crowd has dispersed. “If you don’t have the first-mover advantage, don’t trade anymore”—have you taken that to heart? Especially for those who still want to enter in the afternoon to抢筹—this isn’t a negotiation of probabilities; it’s betting on whether someone tomorrow will be willing to take your hot-potato chips at an even higher price.

Sector Pulse: medical racing solo, oil & gas as backup vocals, tech silenced

1. The medical line (Tianyao Pharmaceutical’s one-man show):
   The leader is undeniably dazzling, but inside the sector, fatigue has already shown. Yesterday’s rally winner Wanbangde, today only closes up 4% and can’t make a consecutive limit-up. This is like a single branch of magnolia in the garden—bright and pure on its own, yet it can’t bring back the full spring across the whole yard. Followers are already running out of steam; this show is close to reaching “the higher the song, the fewer who can hear.”
2. Oil & gas and power (a momentary refuge in chaotic times):
   Xinzhonggang has 3-limit-ups, while Beiken Energy gets its first. Whenever it’s pre-holiday or turbulence hits, funds become like birds startled by the bowstring, retreating into these traditional havens for risk avoidance. But this protection is temporary. Once the winds calm down, they’re also the first to be abandoned. This is just a temporary parking spot for funds, absolutely not a homecoming.
3. Tech growth (yesterday’s fantasy, today’s clarity):
   Yesterday’s rebound was like a dream. Today, on the losers list, semiconductors and AI applications are right there. On withdrawal day with liquidity tightening, the growth areas that need the most capital irrigation are often the first to dry up. There’s no help from a timely snowstorm—only the icing on the cake. And today, there’s no icing to add. Yesterday I look like I didn’t even mention it;

If you don’t contend, then no one in the world can contend with you. Try it lightly with your position, test-and-learn, and feel the market’s pulse.
This isn’t a lack of favored targets, and it’s not that there’s no emotional fluctuation in my heart. It’s just that I deeply understand: on a day when you need to “withdraw cash” from other people’s pockets, any attempt to “take money out” from the market will see a sharply reduced success rate. Trading is like playing chess—sometimes the best move is the one you don’t make. On withdrawal day, launching a charge requires luck that defies the heavens. And I, more than anything, trust probability and discipline. But to keep tomorrow from being boring, I still will lightly participate—feel the market’s pulse and liquidity. And oil—you know what I mean—you’ve likely been stuck for a few days; most likely it will deliver tomorrow’s selloff and then you’ll T back and forth repeatedly;

“Eat meat one day earlier, eat dirt one day later”—this truth gets amplified to the extreme on withdrawal day. Entering today is for that possibly existing, yet ever so thin “meat,” while staking against the “dirt” you may truly face without any doubt.

Six, Outlook for tomorrow: Qingming season—wait quietly for the rain to stop
Tomorrow is the last trading day before the holiday. Following old precedent, once the pre-holiday withdrawal selling pressure has passed, the market will settle into a dull kind of calm. Trading will become even thinner; the index will most likely just oscillate within a narrow range, with no big waves. Instead, you can look for opportunities;

Outside the window, daylight gradually dims. Put away your computer and wash your tea set one by one. In the night of old Suzhou, there will be scattered lights and faint voices of storytelling and opera recitations. The market is always there—noisy or quiet. And our hearts need windows that can be closed anytime, and a stove of warm fire for life that can be lit anytime.

Qianyu System 6-character True Words: timing > trend > stock selection!
Timing: choose the emotional cycle! Trend: choose the money-making effect! Stock selection: choose the strongest dragon number one!
Dragon picks (limit-up dragons, trend dragons): capture the mainline行情, the market’s consensus ticket;
Use position management + emotion timing + decisive action to achieve stable profitability—positive returns!
As scattered flowers gradually want to catch the eye, he catches my eye and I make money!
No matter what, respond with change—follow changes and deal with it at any time!
About the fundamentals system-learning: I wrote in my previous post, and if I go quiet later I’ll keep updating. What do you want me to write more about? You can leave a comment.
Please click the following link to watch:
How to identify the leader and make money off it ( )
How to understand the opening auction ( )
How to quickly understand intraday charts (trend picks) ( )
Sharing a trend trading approach suitable for office workers ( )
How to deal with missing the sell ( )

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Thanks for the encouragement from the following folks—you must remember to cheer up first and then give rewards, haha!
Thanks to @Teacher Bi2014, my good sister Bi—your support! If there were no you in the stock world’s martial arts scene, it would be a lot less fun. You’re also one of the motivations that keeps me going—like my master, you’re a presence of a noble benefactor. I want them to all know your favor isn’t wrong; if you choose me, you won’t lose!
And thanks to @Lao Niu8989 @Ren Sheng Hai Hai2011 @ @Jian Hua stock trading @Zha Di zadia @San Dun @Future of Ke @Salon Bus for the cheer tickets;

Thanks to Dragon One @Ah United Arab Emirates 2000 points for the reward! Love you!
Thanks to Dragon Two @Seeing Others Blow BullB @Ah United Arab Emirates 1000 points for the reward, heart!
Thanks to Dragon Three @Yuan Qi Yuan Mie Tian Zhu Ding 300 points for the reward, heart!
And thanks to @Zha Di zadia @Sun 1122 @Zhuang Ge Says Stocks @Walking on the Road Full of Fragrance @Full Sail Qing @Xu Ke @The Vast Horizon and Endless Sky @Huang Huang113 @Also Want to Trade Stocks to Raise Home 001 for the rewards;

Everyone’s time and energy are precious. I’ll definitely put it toward the people who support and lift me up. Maybe other posters are really impressive, but I just entered the market 2.5 years ago, and I’ve reached this point—if you stay with me for another half year, how far can I evolve? Choose me—let’s advance together; how great is that! Upvote and interact for 300 points to become a silver-fan. If it’s really difficult to upvote and interact, just do the interaction—want to watch me stream/live? Remember to give a reward and a “催播” ticket for 200 points, so the platform can arrange it as soon as possible. We prohibit asking for individual-stock guidance or advice—if you don’t get a reply, please forgive me; that’s the rule. I’m currently using my left hand for limit-up plays, and my right hand for strong trend plays; I’m almost on duty without rest all day. Whatever market comes, I do what matches it. Choose me—haha! Let’s improve our aesthetic sense together. From now on we’ll only do the leaders—the sexiest ones. No doing random small fry; no getting trapped and bag-holding. But there’s a fundamental difference between random small fry and trial-and-error. Improving your ability to read the tape requires you to be brave enough to trial-and-error. Entering the leader early is also caught through trial-and-error again and again!

This article is only my personal recap notes and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risk—invest carefully.