The experience from the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 is that oil prices remained high for nearly half a year after the ceasefire expectations emerged. The inflation expectations that drove prices up, the lowered profit forecasts, and the disrupted supply chains all have lagging effects. From the start of the war on February 28th to now, oil prices have risen from $63 to $109, and US gasoline prices have broken $4. Yesterday, Bank of America raised its global inflation forecast for this year by 90 basis points and lowered GDP expectations by 40 basis points.