Agent of 'BTC OG Insider Whale': Trump's National Address Equals Commitment to Hot War, Escalation of Conflict Is Irreversible

On April 2, Garrett Jin, the agent for ‘BTC OG Insider Whale’, stated, 'Trump’s national address equates to a commitment to hot war, and the escalation of conflict is irreversible. Since the outbreak of war, every major judgment we have made has proven correct—there is no war exit strategy, no solution for the Strait of Hormuz, the oil supply gap has been exposed, and the risks for importing countries have become apparent. This week’s brief optimistic rebound was entirely expected: it was based on position-driven short-term squeezes rather than fundamental changes. Subsequently, Trump delivered a national address. The speech conveyed dual signals. On one hand, Trump claimed that military operations are ‘nearing completion’ and provided a 2-3 week timeline; on the other hand, he threatened to strike Iran’s electrical infrastructure with ‘extreme force’ if an agreement is not reached. The market response reflected these dual aspects: oil prices surged over 6% (indicating escalation of conflict), while the dollar weakened (reflecting possible exit expectations). Our interpretation is that the statement of ‘nearing completion’ is primarily a domestic political posture, while the threat of escalation is the actual signal of action. When a third aircraft carrier strike group is dispatched and a threat to destroy a nation’s power grid is made, the direction is clear. Last week, we suggested that Easter could mark the point of no return for the escalation of hot war. After this speech, we are closer to that threshold than most realize. The market has yet to price in this irreversibility. To be blunt: once the choice of hot war is made, it cannot be retracted. The world is undergoing a structural transformation, and most market participants have yet to begin pricing it in.