[Pre-market US Stocks] Funds pour into US oil, NYMEX crude rises 10%, outpacing Brent (updating continuously)

Money flows into U.S. WTI crude; oil prices surge. New York futures for crude oil jump 10%, breaking through $110. Brent crude futures rise 7.8% to $109.05.

U.S. President Trump said he would take “extremely forceful” action against Iran. Expectations for a short-term ceasefire in the Middle East fail to materialize. Ahead of trading on Thursday, U.S. stock index futures fell. Dow futures dropped 662 points to 46,157; S&P 500 futures fell 1.6% to 6,514; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2% to 23,719.

Track all markets on TradingView

The Kremlin said that Russian President Putin discussed the Middle East crisis with Saudi Crown Prince. Both sides said that the Middle East situation has a negative impact on global energy security, stressing the importance of Russia and Saudi Arabia working together under the “OPEC+” framework to stabilize the global oil market.

Gold prices fall nearly 3%. New York futures gold is at $4,655, while spot gold is at $4,630.

Track all markets on TradingView

As concerns about the conflict continue to escalate, the U.S. dollar index rebounds 0.6%, temporarily at 100.17. U.S. long-dated bond yields rise; the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries rises to 4.367, temporarily.

Australian National Bank FX strategist Rodrigo Catril said Trump’s “upgrade first, downgrade later” strategy is not without risk. He said it appears the market is focusing on the war not being over yet—while the U.S. is seeking to push for escalation and hoping to force Iran to reach an agreement.

Pictet Asset Management in Switzerland said the Middle East conflict and energy crisis have cast a shadow over the outlook for global stock markets. Therefore, the firm has reduced its equity allocations back to benchmark levels across most markets. Chinese stocks are an exception: supported by strong commodity reserves, ample supplies of alternative energy, and policy backing, they still maintain a bullish stance. Emerging-market equities have been cut back to a neutral level.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continuously posted—see the next page for details

Intraday trend:

【18:10】After Trump’s remarks, market concerns rise; Dow futures fall 483 points, Nasdaq futures fall 1.7%—Brent crude rises 7%; gold falls 3%

【14:00】Dow futures fall 555 points to 46,251; S&P futures fall 91 points to 6,526; Nasdaq futures fall 413 points, or 1.7%, to 23,781.

【14:00】Oil pulls back. New York crude oil futures rise 5.1% to $105.24; Brent crude futures rise 6% to $107.23. Gold prices fall more than 3%: New York gold futures at $4,659, spot gold at $4,605.

【11:53】【Artemis II】Moon-bound again after half a century—NASA’s Artemis 2 crewed rocket launches

【11:30】【Gold price action】After Trump’s speech, spot gold turns lower, down 1%—“Basically describing the conflict as a military victory, not a ceasefire announcement”

【11:11】【U.S. stocks analysis】After Trump’s speech, Dow futures fall 400 points. Analysis: Ceasefire hopes may cool in the short term; insufficient momentum for a mid-term rebound

【10:28】【Japanese yen trend】The Japanese yen is at 4.91 against the Hong Kong dollar. UBS warns: If oil supply disruptions persist and keep pushing oil prices higher, the yen could weaken to 175 against the U.S. dollar by year-end

【09:56】【Iran crisis】Trump’s remarks: Achieved an overwhelming victory; the war is about to end. Vows to hit them “extremely harshly,” sending them back to the Stone Age

【08:06】【AI】OpenAI “not-so-nice”? No one takes the secondary market for hundreds of millions of dollars of OpenAI shares—$2 billion in cash poised to invest in rival Anthropic

【06:57】【New stock IPO】SpaceX secretly files IPO application; valuation $1.75 trillion

【06:34】【Iran crisis】Before Trump’s speech—an open letter from Iran’s president questions whether the war benefits Americans (updated continuously)

$1 and below are April 1 U.S. stock market conditions =====

Wednesday: Trump says Iran requested a ceasefire; Iran calls it false information. Dow rises 224 points. Oil futures fall

In an article on the social platform Truth Social, Trump wrote, “Iran’s new administration president is less radical than his predecessors—and much smarter. He just made a ceasefire request to the United States! We will consider this proposal, but on the condition that the Hormuz Strait must remain open, free, and accessible. Until then, we will continue to bomb Iran to destruction—or, as people say, bomb them back to the Stone Age!!!” An Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said Trump’s so-called “new administration president’s ceasefire request” statement is purely fabricated false information.

Watch the close of U.S. stocks:

					▼Click image to enlarge
					

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+10
				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+9

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian published an open letter to the American people on Wednesday, saying that the Iranian people bear no hostility toward other countries, including people in the Americas, Europe, or neighboring countries. He said the United States has stationed a large number of military bases and military forces around Iran, creating a military threat to Iran. Iran’s response—something it has taken and will continue to take—is based on legitimate self-defense and restraint. It is absolutely not about starting a war or committing aggression.

The Iranian state news agency IRIB, quoting statements from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened to enemies due to the “absurd actions of the U.S. president.”

With markets expecting the Middle East war may come to an end, the Dow’s gain briefly expanded to 461 points. At the close, it rose 224 points to 46,565. The S&P 500 rose 0.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.16%.

Intel agreed to pay $14.2 billion to the private equity firm Apollo, repurchasing half of its interest in the Irish chip plant; the stock price rose 8.8%. Micron (Micron) rose 8.9%,

New York crude oil futures briefly plunged 4.8%, hitting a low of $96.5, and closed at $100.12, still down 1.24%. Brent crude futures fell 2.7%, closing at $101.16. The market continues to watch the content of Trump’s speech on the Iran war to be delivered on Wednesday evening U.S. time.

Spot gold prices rose for four straight sessions, up as much as 2.69%, to $4,792.96.

U.S. March ADP employment, also known as the “mini nonfarm payrolls,” increased by 62,000, above expectations of 40,000. By sector, education/healthcare and construction increased by 58,000 and 30,000 respectively, while trade/transportation and manufacturing decreased by 58,000 and 11,000 respectively.

When speaking with external media, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said, “We’ve already seen two fairly solid months of job growth in a row, but most of that comes from the healthcare industry. That’s the real focus. Healthcare is changing the labor market.”

In other areas, information services added 16,000 positions. Natural resources and mining contributed 11,000. Leisure and hospitality added 7,000 jobs.

Companies with fewer than 50 employees dominated hiring, adding 85,000 positions. Mid-sized companies lost 20,000 positions. Large companies with more than 500 employees decreased by 4,000 jobs.

“This is the second consecutive month in which small businesses lead growth,” Richardson said. She added that this shift may be the industry “catching up quickly,” alongside the impact of inflation and the “second or third job people need to cope with current price levels, which may be coming from the small business segment.”

Wage growth for workers who stayed in their original jobs held steady at 4.5%, while wages for “job switchers” grew 6.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from February.

Trump will deliver remarks at 9:00 p.m. Washington time on Wednesday (9:00 a.m. in Hong Kong time on Thursday), covering the latest developments in the Iran war.

Although the fighting brings hopes, the head of the International Energy Agency said that due to the Middle East crisis, more than 12 million barrels of oil supply are already lost per day so far. This crisis is even more severe than the two oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 Russian natural gas supply disruption combined. It is expected that April’s oil losses will be twice those of March. The biggest problem currently is the shortage of jet fuel and diesel, which has already affected Asia and will affect Europe from April to May.

The International Energy Agency said it is considering releasing additional strategic reserves. “If we believe there is demand for crude oil or refined products, we may intervene.” Approximately 40 key energy assets in the Middle East region have been damaged.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continuously posted—see the next page for details

Intraday trend:

【21:30】Dow opens higher by 338 points to 46,680; Nasdaq rises 0.8% to 21,769; S&P rises 42 points to 6,572.

【18:48】Dow futures rise 291 points; Nasdaq futures rise 0.9%; S&P futures rise 43 points.

【14:30】Dow futures rise 210 points to 46,792; S&P futures rise 35 points to 6,606; Nasdaq futures rise 194 points, or 0.8%, to 24,109.

【14:30】Oil prices ease back. New York crude oil futures fall 0.8% to $100.59; Brent crude futures fall 1.8% to $102.28. Gold keeps climbing: New York gold futures up 0.9% to $4,721; spot gold up 0.8% to $4,703.

【14:30】【Gold price analysis】Gold briefly reclaimed the $4,700 level. Analysis: High bond yields limit the upside for gold’s rebound. Is the January high a “once-in-a-generation” historical peak?

【13:17】【U.S. stocks analysis】With hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, the Dow surges by more than 1,000 points. Analysis: As long as both oil and bond-yield indicators keep moving downward, it reflects the market’s longer-term belief that a ceasefire will happen

【10:37】【AI startup】Anthropic’s human error leaks internal source code for the coding assistant Claude Code—512,000 lines of code go viral

【10:23】【AI + layoffs】Oracle shares rise nearly 6%: reports say it is rolling out global layoffs, expected to affect thousands of people

【10:05】【Gold price action】Gold prices keep up; spot gold briefly breaks above the $4,700 level. Hoping the Iran war may end

【09:00】【New stock IPO】SpaceX reportedly is working with at least 21 banks to prepare for a listing under the code name “Project Apex”

【08:32】【NKE earnings】Nike shares fall 9% after hours. Forecasts say China market sales may decline 20%

【08:11】【Warren Buffett】Buffett warns of fragile signs in the banking system—market panic may cause investors to exit; “getting out the door early is still beneficial”

【07:34】【AI + investment】OpenAI adds $12 billion to this funding round. Post-investment valuation rises to $852 billion

【07:06】【Iran crisis】Trump: The goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons has been achieved. We don’t need to reach an agreement to withdraw troops—we can withdraw in two or three weeks (updated continuously)

$1 and below are March 31 U.S. stock market conditions =====

Tuesday: Iran’s president says it is willing to end the war if it can ensure it won’t be attacked again. Dow rockets 1,125 points; Nasdaq rises 3.8%; oil prices turn lower

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is willing to end the war as long as it can ensure it will not be attacked again. Reportedly, U.S. President Donald Trump also signaled openness to a ceasefire, intending to end U.S. military action against Iran before the Hormuz Strait reopens. With the market hoping both sides will deploy a ceasefire, U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday. The Dow’s gain at one point expanded to 1,167 points; oil prices turned lower.

At the close, the Dow rose 1,125 points to 46,341; the S&P rose 2.91%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.83%.

Watch the close of U.S. stocks:

					▼Click image to enlarge
					

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+10
				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+9

In key stocks, large tech stocks continue to rebound. Nvidia (U.S.: NVDA) rose 5.6%, and Tesla rose 4.6%. Meta (U.S.: META) rose 6.7% at the close. It announced a $2 billion investment in chipmaker Marvell, boosting Marvell by 12.8%.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a statement targeting companies and institutions related to 18 U.S. high-tech and artificial intelligence firms in the Middle East region.

U.S. President Trump posted on the social website Truth Social saying, “To all countries that cannot obtain aviation fuel because of the Hormuz Strait—for example, the UK that refuses to participate in Iran’s ‘decapitation operation,’ I have advice for you: First, buy oil from the United States—we have plenty of oil. Second, find courage and go to the Hormuz Strait to take it. You must start learning self-reliance. The United States will no longer help you the way it used to, just as you did not help us back then.”

He said, “Iran has basically been destroyed. The hardest part is already over,” urging those “watching from the sidelines” countries to get their own oil.

According to reports by foreign media, Trump told aides that even if the Hormuz Strait is basically closed, he is still willing to end U.S. military operations against Iran, increasing market hopes that the conflict—now going on for a month—will end.

New York crude oil futures closed down 1.46% to $101.38; spot gold prices had risen as much as 3.9% to a high of $4,686.9.

The U.S. dollar index is somewhat soft, temporarily at 99.88. Fed Chair Powell suggested that near-term rate hikes may not be necessary. U.S. long-dated bond yields have been falling steadily, with the 10-year yield temporarily at 4.321.

Russian Ambassador to Iran Alexey Dedov said in an interview with Russian media on Tuesday that Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is currently in Iran and is not in Russia for treatment as some rumors claim.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continuously posted—see the next page for details

Intraday trend:

【20:55】Trump: Countries that don’t help the U.S. will have to learn how to get oil themselves in the future. Dow futures rise 509 points; Nasdaq futures rise 0.8%; spot gold rises 1%

【18:00】Dow futures rise 407 points; Nasdaq futures rise 0.8%; spot gold rises 1%

【15:00】Dow futures rise 321 points to 45,786; S&P futures rise 39 points to 6,427; Nasdaq futures rise 132 points, or 0.6%, to 23,272.

【15:00】Oil prices hold steady. New York crude oil futures rise 0.1% to $102.97; Brent crude futures rise 0.7% to $107.48. Gold keeps rising: New York gold futures rise 0.7% to $4,590; spot gold rises 1.1% to $4,558.

【14:06】【U.S. stocks analysis】Powell suggests no rate hike in the short term; U.S. stocks rise first then pull back. Analysis: Chances of rate hikes may be overestimated; if fighting cools in the short term, the S&P could return to 7,000

【12:08】【New stock IPO】Nasdaq rolls out a “fast inclusion” new rule, paving the way for unicorns like SpaceX to quickly advance into the Nasdaq 100 index

【10:48】【Gold price action】Gold prices continue to rise by more than 1%. Powell eases rate-hike expectations + and reports that Trump is also willing to end the fighting without reopening the Hormuz Strait

【08:03】【U.S. interest rates】Powell says long-term inflation expectations remain contained and emphasizes that monetary policy is in a good position

$1 and below are March 30 U.S. stock market conditions =====

Monday: Iran’s parliament approves charging fees at the Hormuz Strait. NY oil stays above 100. The Nasdaq turns lower by 0.7%. The Dow rises 49 points, once up 459 points

Iranian Islamic Parliament approved legislation on Monday to plan to levy tolls on ships passing through the Hormuz Strait. Oil tankers could be charged up to $2 million.

U.S. President Trump claimed significant progress in talks with Iran, but warned that if the Hormuz Strait does not restore passage, the U.S. may attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. NY oil jumped above 100; the Nasdaq turned lower.

Watch the close of U.S. stocks:

					▼Click image to enlarge
					

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+10
				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+9

U.S. stocks had mixed performance on Monday. After the Dow opened higher, its gain widened to as much as 459 points. It then turned down by 109 points. At the close, it was up 49 points to 45,216. The S&P 500 gave back 0.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.73%.

New York crude oil rose 3.25% to $102.88. It closed above the $100 level. Brent May crude oil finished up 0.18% at $112.78.

Activist investor Bill Ackman said that the two major mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac slid further below their highs, spurring a stock price surge of 51% and 47%. U.S. Aluminum rose 8.2%.

Speaking publicly on Monday (the 30th), Fed Chair Powell said the Fed’s response to the Iran war depends largely on how the conflict affects Americans’ inflation expectations. He noted that people often overlook supply shocks in any form. The key, however, is that inflation expectations must be closely watched. The central bank faces risks on both of its dual mandates: maintaining price stability and achieving full employment. At present, the Fed’s monetary policy is appropriate to remain on hold, emphasizing that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will deliver on a 2% inflation target.

He also said it is well known that the implementation of monetary policy has long and unstable lags. Therefore, by the time the effects of tightening monetary policy become apparent, the oil-price shock may already be over—his remarks or implication suggesting that a near-term rate hike is not necessarily needed.

On Monday, Trump posted on Truth Social, saying the U.S. is conducting serious talks with a completely new, more rational Iranian government to end its military actions in Iran. He also said the talks have made major progress, but it is not yet clear whether the two sides are truly negotiating.

Trump said, “They agreed to most of what we asked. How could they not?” and added, “We will ask for some other demands as well.” However, he declined to disclose what specific concessions Iran has made.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates are continuously posted—see the next page for details

					▼Click image to enlarge
					

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+2

Intraday trend:

【23:10】Powell: Monetary policy has lag effects; hints that a near-term rate hike may not happen. Oil jumps 2%. Dow rises 320 points.

【21:30】Trump: If the Hormuz Strait cannot reopen, it will destroy all Iran power plants and oil wells. Oil jumps 2%. Dow rises 396 points.

【19:55】Trump: If the Hormuz Strait cannot reopen, it will destroy all Iran power plants and oil wells. Oil jumps another 2%. Dow futures rise 244 points.

【18:15】Dow futures rise 153 points; Nasdaq futures rise 0.3%. Focus this week: Middle East war developments + nonfarm data

【18:10】【Iran crisis】Iran confirms the death of the IRGC navy commander | denies any direct negotiations (updated continuously)

【13:26】Dow futures rise 13 points to 45,437; S&P futures rise 6 points to 6,418; Nasdaq futures rise 22 points, or nearly 0.1%, to 23,351.

【13:26】NY crude oil futures up 1.3% to $100.98; Brent crude futures up 2.3% to $115.17. For gold, it has recently steadied: NY gold futures up 0.2% to $4,534; spot gold up 0.4% to $4,512.

【12:19】【European Central Bank】Member: Lock in the 2% inflation target; talks about rate hikes are too early for now. Warns of systemic risk in the U.S. financial system

【10:58】【Iran crisis】Trump says the U.S. may seize Iran’s oil and also take control of Khark Island, the export hub

【10:21】【Japanese yen trend】Jun Mimura warns it will take “bold action”—4.9 yen per Hong Kong dollar

【09:30】【Oil price trend】Schroders expects high oil prices to last longer, but the level of pain is only half of the 2007 crisis peak

【09:17】【Gold price trend】Gold prices recorded their first rise since the outbreak of the Middle East war last week, but gold prices have fallen again this week

【08:33】【Iran crisis】Escalation in the Iran war lifts oil prices. Japan and South Korea stock markets also experienced another “Black Monday”

【07:30】【Iran crisis】Oil jumps another 2%. Pakistan: In the coming days, conduct U.S.-Iran talks; Iran allows 20 ships to pass through the strait. Trump is considering deploying ground forces (updated continuously)

【07:30】U.S. President Trump said he is extending the bombing of Iran’s power plants by another 10 days. The move has not eased worries among markets. Instead, concerns that the war could drag on may affect oil supply, intensifying the impact on the global economy. U.S. stocks fell last Friday. At the close, the Dow finished at 45,166, down 793 points; the S&P fell 1.67%; the Nasdaq fell 2.15%.

Watch the close of U.S. stocks:

					▼Click image to enlarge
					

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+10
				

				


	
	
	
	
	

						+9

U.S. stock market performance last week—see details: 【U.S. stock close】Iran says its nuclear facilities were hit; war risk of escalation. Dow drops 793 points; oil prices rise again; U.S. dollar stays above 100

	Finance Hot Talk
	





	China’s auto sales top the world for the first time—can high oil prices help electric vehicles expand overseas?