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A single statement from Trump sent oil prices soaring past $107! The Strait of Hormuz "paralyzed," global inflation may explode?
On April 2nd, during a prime-time speech, Trump directly caused chaos in the global energy market.
He announced: U.S. military will launch "extremely severe" strikes against Iran within the next two to three weeks, and the Strait of Hormuz will "naturally reopen after the conflict ends"—but no timeline was given.
The market instantly panicked: Brent crude broke through $106, surging over 5% intraday; WTI crude also rose above $104.
In fact, the strait has been closed for a month now.
Western Pacific Bank experts pointed out: "Trump hasn't changed the reality—oil flow has long been cut off, and in the coming weeks or even longer, it won't be restored."
Even more dramatic, just a few days ago, Trump hinted that Iran might seek a ceasefire, causing oil prices to briefly dip below $100, and global stock markets cheered. But Iran’s Foreign Ministry quickly shot down the rumors: "All fake news!"
Market sentiment reversed 180 degrees. Trump not only refused to back down but also blamed allies: Want to reopen the strait? Send your ships to escort, the U.S. will only play a supporting role.
Investors are now completely panicked—the Middle East energy artery might really be severed.
Will oil prices keep rising? Some are betting on $450 per barrel!
Analysts expect Brent crude to fluctuate between $95 and $110 in the short term. But if the conflict drags into the third quarter and the strait remains blocked, oil could hit a historic high of $190 in August.
Even crazier, the market has started "lottery-style" bets—betting on Brent reaching $450 per barrel.
About 20% of global oil supply is stuck, and diesel and aviation fuel in Asia are nearly out of stock. The International Energy Agency warns that some countries will soon implement energy rationing.
Why hasn't gold risen?
Unusually, gold hasn't surged with the risk-off sentiment; instead, it fell below $4,700, and silver dropped 3%—the dollar strengthened, and funds shifted to betting on extreme oil prices, leaving gold "neglected."
Trump is threatening escalation while also sending his vice president to deliver a final ultimatum. No one can predict how this will end. The only certainty is—oil prices won't settle down, and inflation will be hard to contain, hurting all of us.