If all the most accurate gold predictors in history were combined, could they crack the future gold price? I have been analyzing and organizing the most accurate gold forecasts for ten years.

If I can find out—every person who has historically predicted a financial product like gold most accurately, the most authoritative institutions, and the most famous analysts—and then compare each of their predictions against the actual outcomes, to find out “who’s the most accurate”… then look at what these “most accurate people” are saying about the future right now—

then do I basically have the wealth “password” for that financial asset? 💰

With that in mind, I actually did it. I used gold as the sample and dug through over a decade of prediction records.

For this research, we pulled out three categories of people: the top-tier investment banks and industry institutions on Wall Street, the biggest-name figures shouting the loudest in the gold space, and the “god-tier” contestants who nailed key reversals with pinpoint accuracy.

We went through the data one by one.

Every prediction dataset we found—we laid it all out

Wall Street Professional Institutions:

• LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) invites dozens of top analysts to make annual gold forecasts every year. In 2025, the average forecast from 28 analysts was $2,735 per ounce. That year’s most optimistic analyst—Keisuke (Bill) Okui from Sumitomo Corporation—gave $2,925, because “being closest to the actual” earned him the annual “most accurate prediction award.”

What was the actual average gold price in 2025? $3,431.

So, even the most bullish analyst in the whole market—who ultimately won—still predicted lower than the actual by 15%. And the broader market consensus underestimated it by a full 20%.

• Goldman Sachs has two standout records in the history of gold forecasts. In April 2013, Goldman issued a report that clearly recommended shorting gold, with a target of $1,450. Gold then crashed 26%, and Goldman went “god-tier.”

But more recently, Goldman has botched it. In October 2024, Goldman predicted the gold price for 2025 would be $2,700. The actual? Gold surged relentlessly in 2025 and broke above $5,600 in early 2026. It was off by double.

• JPMorgan gave a 2026 gold price benchmark of $5,055 at the end of 2025. The gold price broke through that level early.

Gold-Scene Big V’s:

• Peter Schiff, the most famous “always bullish” figure in the gold circle. More than ten years ago, he was already calling for “$5,000 gold.” From 2013 to 2018, gold went sideways for five or six years—he got criticized every day and mocked as a “stopped clock.” But the gold price did break above $5,600 in early 2026. He called it for over a decade and finally got it right.
• Jim Rogers, a legendary commodities-market investor. In the early 2010s, he predicted gold would rise to above $2,000—back then it was considered outrageous. Now it seems he was right on direction, but the timing was off by ten years.
• Mike Maloney, creator of the “The Hidden Secrets of Money” series, a deeply bullish voice on gold. He long predicted that gold was being seriously undervalued and would eventually revert to its true historical value as real money. Between 2015 and 2020, his predictions were consistently validated by the market as overly optimistic. After 2020, when gold kicked off, he began to be seen as “finally right.”

God-Tier Contestants:

• Nouriel Roubini (“Dr. Doom”), best known for his precise forecast of the 2008 financial crisis. For gold: in 2013, when gold fell from $1,900, he said he would “continue to be bearish” in the $1,500–$1,600 range; gold truly broke through the $1,200 low point, perfectly confirming his call. In January 2023, when gold hovered around $1,900, he turned bullish, predicting that every year over the next five years would rise by 10%, with a target of $3,000. Gold later far exceeded that number.
• Ben McMillan (Chief Investment Officer, IDX Advisors), recently stood out amid the market action. In early 2024, when gold was around $2,000, he predicted it would reach $5,000 within five years. At the time, the market thought it was “near-crazy.” The result? Gold hit that level in just a year and a half.
• Ray Dalio (founder of Bridgewater), doesn’t give specific prices—he makes judgments qualitatively from the perspective of macro cycles. In January 2026, he called gold the “second-largest currency” and suggested allocating 5–15% to it.

After reviewing the data, you might think—some people really are pretty accurate?

Not so fast. The above is only their “most famous times.” When I pulled out their complete records and looked, the picture was different.

Wall Street professional institutions: typical lagging forecasts

What does “lagging forecasts” mean? It’s when the bull market is already here and they only then start raising their target prices; but the amount they raise never keeps up with the actual upside. When the bear market comes, they start lowering again—but they’re always too slow.

LBMA’s 28 analysts are the best example. They make predictions once a year, and in essence they are doing small extrapolations of “trends that have already happened.” By 2024, the gold price had already risen to $2,700; in their 2025 forecast, the median was only $2,735—almost like moving last year’s closing price over as the forecast. The result: the 2025 average was $3,431, a slap in the face by 20%.

Goldman Sachs follows the same pattern. Looking at the end of 2024 for 2025, they gave only $2,700, but gold later surged past $5,000. JPMorgan gave $5,055 as the benchmark, and gold broke through that level early.

What these institutions are doing—more accurately—is called “trend confirmation”: telling you that what’s already happened really is happening, but their judgment of the magnitude is always conservative. If you wait for their signals to make decisions, you’ll always be one step behind.

Big V’s in the track: a broken clock can be right twice a day

Peter Schiff has been calling for $5,000 gold for more than a decade. Jim Rickards has been calling for $10,000. Kiyosaki directly called for $35,000.

Their strategy is fundamentally to keep calling for increases every year: if it rises, “I said so all along”; if it falls, “it’s not time yet.”

The deadliest problem is this: these forecasts have no time granularity. They don’t tell you when to enter or when to get out. If you went all-in on gold in 2011 based on Schiff’s advice, you’d have to endure five or six years of sideways action and losses before waiting for today. When it comes to “belief,” it has no stop-bleeding function once you’re down 40%.

God-Tier Contestants: are they really right all the time?

This category of people is the most misleading. Because they really did make some astonishingly accurate calls at certain critical moments, the market granted them a “prophet” halo. But when I pulled their full track records and looked, the picture wasn’t nearly as perfect.

Roubini was right on the bearish call in 2013 and also right on the bullish turn in 2023. He caught both turning points—he really is impressive.

But do you know what he missed in between? When gold prices first broke above $1,000 in 2009, Roubini publicly said it was “impossible” for them to rise another 20–30%. What happened? Gold kept rising to $1,900 by 2011—up nearly 90%. By late 2009, when gold reached $1,200, he said it “looks very much like a bubble” and that “gold has no intrinsic value.”

During the entire 2009–2012 gold bull market, Roubini kept repeating bearish calls and completely missed it. No one brings up this part of history. Everyone only remembers his bearish call in 2013 and his bullish turn in 2023.

Ben McMillan predicted in early 2024 that gold would reach $5,000 within five years—and it happened in just a year and a half. His logic was built on the structural changes in central bank gold purchases, and yes, it was right. But the problem is this: this is the only widely recorded prediction of his in the gold space. The sample size is one. Can one time being right prove systematic forecasting ability?

Ray Dalio sounds the most steady—he doesn’t forecast prices, only provides allocation advice. But when you look at his macro prediction record: in 1981, he was firmly convinced the U.S. would experience a Great Depression; he shouted it everywhere—in newspapers, on TV, and in congressional hearings—and it was completely wrong. Bridgewater nearly collapsed and he even had to borrow $4,000 from his dad to pay household bills. In 2015, he said “we need to repeat 1937”—it didn’t happen. In 2018, he said “a recession within two years”—it didn’t happen. In October 2022, he called a “perfect storm”—that month just happened to be the bottom for the U.S. stock market.

He predicted financial crises almost once every two or three years, and most of them didn’t happen. But ironically, his line—“You don’t need to forecast prices; you just need to allocate 5–15%”—ended up becoming the most useful sentence among everyone.

The 2011 storyline is being replayed in 2026

In the report, there’s a particularly interesting finding.

Before gold peaked at $1,923 in 2011, market predictions were escalating in a frantic, step-by-step amplification: at the start of the year, everyone predicted $2,000; mid-year doubled it; near the top, Jim Sinclair shouted $12,500, and Rob Kirby shouted $15,000. The most extreme predictions appeared just a few weeks before the real top.

Then in September, gold crashed. What did the predictors do? First they called it a “healthy correction,” then only a few months later—reluctantly—they lowered targets by 20–30%, and finally pushed the timeline indefinitely.

In March 2026, gold fell 25% from the $5,600 historical high to around $4,200—its biggest weekly drop since 1983. What were most institutions and celebrities’ reactions? They maintained their original extremely high target prices, and some even believed that the crash was “the best buying opportunity.”

History won’t simply repeat itself, but the script really looks similar.

So what are they saying about the future now?

Since we’ve dug through it all, we’re also listing their latest views, for everyone’s reference:

Person/Institution | Latest Forecast | Core Logic
Roubini: Prior target of $3,000 has been achieved; bullish direction unchanged | Inflation expectations reverting + long-term structural upside
McMillan: $10,000 within five years | Central bank gold purchases + the U.S. Treasury crisis + BRICS de-dollarization
Dalio: No price; suggests allocating 5–15% | Legal tender credit structure deteriorating
Jamie Dimon: Could touch $10,000 within this year | Economic concerns + inflation + asset bubbles
Peter Schiff: $11,400 within three years | Calling the recent drop “illogical”
Kiyosaki: $35,000 | “The biggest bubble burst in history” after
JPMorgan: $6,300 | Believes the selloff is profit-taking
Goldman Sachs: $5,400 | The bull market isn’t over
UBS: $6,200 | Maintains a bullish view

Did you see it? From $5,400 to $35,000, the gap between the highest and lowest is nearly 7x. Same market environment, same data sources—yet these world-class minds come up with answers that differ that much.

So, has the “wealth password” been found?

After finishing the full review, here is my conclusion: I didn’t find it.

Institutions always chase; big V’s always shout; and god-tier contestants aren’t always right either—they only get it right at certain specific moments, while nobody remembers the times they were wrong. When you stack the predictions of these three categories together, you don’t get a more accurate answer—you get more confusion. Because at the same time points, they often contradict each other.

I used to think that “finding the most accurate person and following them” was one path. After doing this research, I found that in the gold forecasting field, there simply isn’t a person who’s always the most accurate. There’s only “someone who happened to be right this time.”

Written at the end

One gold example was enough to fully un-mystify the so-called financial experts for me.

Can ALPHA really be captured by you? Besides models and data, it might really also depend on fate.

So in the end, rather than trying to crack a wealth password, I decided to learn from Dalio instead—don’t predict specific prices, admit uncertainty, and manage risk through allocations.

Gold went in last year, and this year it will continue to be accumulated. For the investment time horizon, individuals should calculate on a 10-year cycle.