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The situation in the Middle East has energy markets at maximum tension. China has just warned that it will take all necessary measures to protect its energy security, and the reason is clear: any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be a nightmare for Beijing.
Approximately 20% of the world's oil flows through this maritime corridor, and China heavily depends on those imports. When we talk about one-fifth of global supply at risk, we are talking about a serious problem. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning was direct on the matter: energy security is critical for the entire global economy, and all parties must ensure a stable flow.
Markets are already reacting. Brent crude, the benchmark in Europe, has risen more than 5 in recent days, hovering around $82 per barrel. It recently jumped more than 13% when the joint US and Israel offensive began. European stock markets plummeted more than 2% at opening, with Madrid leading the declines at 5%. In Asia, it was even worse: the South Korean Kospi index plunged 7.2%, and Tokyo's Nikkei fell 3.1%.
The question everyone is asking is: how long will this last? Jan Rosenow, Professor of Energy Policy at Oxford, noted that if the conflict is resolved within days, the impact will be limited. But if it prolongs, it will affect retail energy prices worldwide. Trump himself admitted that the operation could extend beyond five weeks, which heightened investor concern.
Emma Wall, Head of Strategy at Hargreaves Lansdown, has an interesting perspective: the tension in Hormuz keeps pressure on crude supply, but she considers this disruption temporary. Prices could return to normal levels if the conflict is resolved quickly. What everyone hopes for is that this will be the case, because a prolonged disruption would be a significant blow to economies like China, which already heavily depend on those Middle Eastern imports.