Recently, I've been watching the AUD/JPY currency pair and noticed it has fallen near the key level of 111.00. It feels a bit risky. This level is not just an integer barrier; more importantly, it's right at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, which has been supporting the trend since the end of last year.

Looking at the technicals, the RSI is approaching oversold territory, which usually indicates a potential rebound is brewing. However, if it truly breaks below 110.50, caution is warranted as it could confirm a trend reversal. On the upside, after holding above 111.00, the rebound target should be around the channel midpoint at approximately 112.50.

Fundamentally, the divergence in policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan has been weighing on the AUD. The yen tends to be particularly strong during market risk aversion, and fluctuations in global stock markets and commodity prices are also influencing this currency pair's direction. Recently, Australia's employment and CPI data, along with any policy signals from the Bank of Japan, could trigger significant volatility.

Honestly, this level feels like a standoff between bulls and bears. If support holds, the rebound could be strong. But if it decisively breaks, a wave of selling might be triggered, with the next support around the 200-day moving average near 109.20. Expect some volatility in the next couple of days, so be prepared if you're trading this pair.