I have just been monitoring on-chain data and see that Bitcoin is currently in a quite defensive stance. The Realized Cap has decreased for two consecutive months, from nearly $1,127 billion at the end of November down to about $1,094 billion — meaning approximately $33 billion has been withdrawn from the network. This indicates that capital is flowing out, not into the market as typically seen during accumulation phases.

The interesting part is that the HODL Waves data tells a similar story. The group of coins held for 3-6 months has surged to 25.9% of the total supply, mainly consisting of coins purchased near the market peak around 8-11 months ago in 2025. Meanwhile, short-term coins under 1 month only account for 9.3%, indicating that new demand entering the market remains very limited. Overall, this picture reflects holders in loss rather than confident accumulation.

Looking at the 3-day chart, Bitcoin is trading far from the main moving averages. The 50 SMA is around $92,000, the 100 SMA at $101,500, and the 200 SMA at $90,000 — all above the current price and acting as resistance. When these lines stack from bottom to top, it’s a clear bearish signal. The price was strongly rejected from the $90,000-$95,000 zone earlier this year, then formed a distribution area before breaking below the 50 and 100 SMAs. The next key support zone is at $60,000-$62,000. If it breaks below that, deeper corrections could follow.

Momentum is currently very weak. The recent selling volume has been quite high, indicating active distribution rather than passive drift. Sellers still control the market. To stabilize, Bitcoin will need to reclaim at least the $75,000-$80,000 zone and start building higher highs — but currently, momentum does not support that scenario. We are still in wait-and-see mode.