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Today, I will organize the various thematic stocks within the current cycle on April 2nd.
Can there be opportunities in this market layout? Of course, there are—there are daily limit-up boards. In fact, the past two days’行情 have been pretty tricky. Yesterday, the external market surged and the index rebounded. Eight straight limit-up boards got blown up, about five of them. You chased technology yesterday; most of it surged and then pulled back. Today it opened directly with a low gap. Was computing power—Oryde—strong yesterday? Strong. Did it open with a premium today? None of this is an isolated case. Today strong, tomorrow weak. [Taoguba]
So how should we view the current cycle?
1: The day before the power sector cycle started rising, I reminded everyone. After that, every day I kept posting and expressing my personal views in the post and comment sections. Starting from March 25, I said here you need to do some defense. Right now, being bullish looks like a front-running call, and the reason is the same as what I told everyone—that some unfavorable imagination has appeared here.
2: After Huadian Liaoning Energies snapped its board, I judged that the next phase would turn into a chaotic cycle, and so far nothing has changed. Although the medicine stock ultimately got stuck at the high-grade commercial aerospace leading names—Shenjian, reaching five boards. Yesterday there was an upside beat with additional catalyst and including linkage fermentation. The key is tomorrow: after Huadian Liaoning Energies snapped its board, the height has been capped and suppressed at around 4–5 boards for two days. The highest was five boards, which was Minohua. Watch whether it can break 5 and go into 6 tomorrow. If it can, you can look at it afterward. If it can’t, it may prevent the loss-making effect from the medicine sector.
3: As for my personal understanding, we’re still within the power sector cycle. The medicine sector has already broken out to a certain height. Within it, there are several themes and stocks—let me sort them below:
Cross-over products:
Fiber-optic cables: FGL Optics (长飞光纤), Hangdian Co., Ltd. (杭电股份) (a big three-wave structure) Farvin? (法而胜) (a small five-wave structure; a normal five-wave is the tail wave)
Power-sector cycle rotation:
1: Power: It hasn’t ended. I said three tickers last night, with two being trend-following (连扳: Xinchonggang).
2: Medicine: High-grade: Jinyao Pharmaceutical (津药药业); Trend: Wanbangde (万邦德) (the trend I mentioned last night). Old trend: Jaan Medical (九安医疗)
3: Sports independent: Trend: Shuhua Sports (舒华体育) (the trend I mentioned last night)
4: Commercial aerospace: Shenjian (Shenjian) (trend)
Tomorrow’s key points:
1: Can medicine break 5 into 6? It has accelerated for two consecutive days. If tomorrow still doesn’t explode in volume, afterward it will likely be a wave. Ask yourself: are you going to go?
2: For cross-over products with a three-wave structure: handle them as trends. Don’t chase near the 5-day moving average for low-buys. If it breaks the 5-day line, exit first. Use T to build up the profit cushion.
3: Power, commercial aerospace, and even Fujian—you said they’re over? They’re not. There’s no end. The rotation also needs to keep an eye on each level of recognition.
4: After JinYao stops its board, will something new come out? If there’s no new thing, it’s still likely to be rotation. Grouping will be based on recognition.
5: Once something new comes out, the old cycle and cross-over products will be abandoned by capital.
That’s all from my perspective: Should you do trend arbitrage? Should you do rotation? Basically, going forward it’s probably the scenarios above. Put simply: if no new theme with imagination comes out, a few directions will keep rotating or continue to group up. When something new comes out, the old ones are likely to retreat.
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