Oil prices surge over 5%! Trump threatens that the Iran war will escalate in the coming weeks, causing markets to plunge back into panic.

Zhitong Finance APP learned that, affected by the further deterioration of the geopolitical situation, global energy markets experienced a sharp round of volatility on April 2 (Thursday). In a nationally televised address during the prime-time slot that day, U.S. President Trump clearly stated that the military action against Iran has entered a critical stage, and openly forecast that the U.S. military would deliver an “extremely severe” blow to Iran within the next two to three weeks. He also said that the Strait of Hormuz would “naturally” reopen after the conflict ends, but provided no details or a clear timeline. This so-called “ultimatum”-style statement weakened hopes that the war would be resolved quickly, and prolonged the interruption of energy flows through the key Strait of Hormuz, causing international benchmark Brent crude oil prices to rapidly break through the $106 per-barrel mark. The intraday gain at one point exceeded 5%, while U.S. WTI crude also climbed to highs above $104.

Robert Rennie, head of commodities research at Westpac, said: “Trump’s speech didn’t change the market’s underlying reality—the strait has effectively been closed for a month, and crude flows remain severely constrained. In the future, disruptions lasting at least several weeks, or even longer, are still possible.” He added that he expects Brent crude to trade in the $95 to $110 per-barrel range in the near term.

In recent days, after Trump suggested that the Middle East conflict could be resolved within a few weeks, oil prices fell while the broader market generally rose. However, this White House address further intensified uncertainty about when the war would end. The U.S. president again threatened to strike Iran’s oil facilities.

This conflict has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off global market supply of products such as crude oil, natural gas, and diesel, driving up energy prices and sparking concerns about an inflation crisis. In March, oil prices surged sharply, and Brent crude was still more than 40% higher than pre-war levels.

Looking back at the sudden shift in market sentiment, earlier price action had at one time shown a completely different picture. Just a few days earlier, because Trump hinted on social media that Iran might request a ceasefire, the market saw a brief recovery in sentiment: global stock markets rebounded and oil prices at one point fell back to below $100. However, as Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs firmly denied the related reports and accused the U.S. side of spreading false information, the market’s optimism quickly evaporated.

In the subsequent formal remarks, Trump not only failed to deliver any de-escalation signals, but instead publicly pressured allies that rely on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route, urging each country to take responsibility for protecting merchant vessels and regaining control of the strait, with the U.S. only playing an assisting role. This hardline posture, combined with the reality of the strait’s long-term lockdown, directly triggered investors’ extreme fear that the Middle East’s major energy artery could be completely cut off.

Vanda Insights’ founder, Vandana Hari, said: “The market will now factor in expectations of escalation of military action. Trump didn’t provide a clear timeline for ending the war, and crude oil has already initially priced in this expectation.”

Even if the conflict ends within a few weeks, it will still take time for the Strait of Hormuz to resume normal oil exports, because some energy infrastructure has been damaged and faces a prolonged repair period. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, warned that as this month’s oil supply shock intensifies, some countries may soon face energy rationing.

From the perspective of macroeconomic impact, the continued paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz has caused about 20% of global oil supply to stall. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stern warning. Relevant data show that supply chain disruptions caused by the closure of the strait have begun to limit diesel and jet fuel supply to Asia, while global inflation pressures continue to rise.

Financial analysis firms warned that if military confrontation cannot be resolved in the short term and the strait obstruction situation extends into the third quarter, international oil prices are highly likely to surge to a historic high of $190 per barrel in August this year. At the same time, with high energy prices posing a direct threat to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, the White House is facing a double challenge between adding large military spending and mounting domestic calls for a ceasefire.

While crude prices are soaring, the logic of asset pricing in global capital markets has also shifted. Although gold has traditionally been seen as a safe-haven asset, in the current extreme geopolitical environment—driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and diversification of flows of safe-haven funds—gold and silver prices have instead posted a clear spike followed by a pullback. Spot gold has fallen back below the $4,700 level, and spot silver’s decline has also exceeded 3%.

Throughout the nearly six-week conflict, Trump’s stance has been wavering between threatening military escalation and claiming that an agreement is about to be reached. He has sent a last warning to Iran through U.S. Vice President Vance, demanding it reach an agreement or face the risk of key infrastructure being targeted.

Investors are buying large amounts of options contracts in order to profit from almost any outcome—whether the conflict is resolved quickly and causes oil prices to fall, or whether prices surge even further. A small amount of “lottery-style” betting has also appeared in the market, betting that the global benchmark crude oil price could soar to $450 per barrel.