Bitunix Analyst: The supply chains of energy and industrial metals are simultaneously deteriorating, with the war escalating to the "real production system," and the market entering a phase of inflation and risk mispricing.

Mars Finance reports that on April 2, the core contradiction in the market further expanded from “uncertainty in energy supply” to “damage to real industrial production capacity.” The Middle East’s largest aluminum producer, EGA, was attacked, leading to a complete shutdown of its smelting operations. Coupled with several other aluminum plants in the region reducing production, this indicates that the war is no longer only impacting energy and shipping but is directly disrupting the industrial metals supply chain, transferring inflationary pressures from oil prices to the manufacturing sector. This resonates with OPEC’s production cuts and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, causing the global supply contraction to shift from a single category to a “dual squeeze” of “energy + industrial raw materials,” leading to a resurgence of inflation expectations. U.S. Federal Reserve officials have also explicitly stated that the energy shock will comprehensively push up prices, forcing policies to remain restrictive.

Meanwhile, Trump has announced a clear timeframe of two to three weeks for increased military strikes but has not provided any pathway toward opening the strait or de-escalating the conflict. This has caused oil prices to rise rapidly and bond yields to rebound, while gold has experienced selling pressure, indicating that the market has not entered a typical safe-haven mode but is instead shifting toward “liquidity re-pricing”—funds are withdrawing from non-yielding assets and moving into cash and assets with pricing power. Additionally, potential U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals, along with the simultaneous advancement of policies across technology, military, and resources sectors, are further fragmenting global trade and supply chains, with risks spreading across multiple points.

The geopolitical landscape remains highly unstable. Iran has not demonstrated any genuine willingness for substantive negotiations and continues to strengthen regional strikes and strategic deterrence, implying that the conflict is evolving from bilateral confrontation into multi-party involvement, increasing the risk of prolonged escalation and loss of control. In this context, market behavior exhibits typical “short-term and defensive” characteristics. U.S. employment and manufacturing data appear stable on the surface, but price indicators are rising in tandem, suggesting that the economy has not yet weakened but is already under cost pressures. As a result, capital is tending to reduce duration and risk exposure. Bitcoin (BTC) continues to operate as a risk absorption asset, with the liquidity zone above 69,000–70,100 accumulating but not being effectively digested; prices are pressured around 68,000, reflecting insufficient capital willingness to absorb. The key testing zone under the current structure is at 65,500; if energy or conflict escalates again, this area could trigger a chain reaction of liquidity release.

Overall, the market has entered a new phase dominated by “supply chain disruption”: energy, metals, and geopolitics are acting simultaneously, elevating inflation expectations without supporting growth, resulting in a typical mismatch between risk and prices. In the absence of policy anchors and war-driven exports, asset prices will continue to be primarily influenced by liquidity and risk appetite.