I recently noticed that XRP is fluctuating around $1.31, slightly lower than in previous days. The cryptocurrency market is quite polarized, with both retail and institutional investors being more cautious. What caught my attention is that XRP has not been able to hold above the $1.40 level, and risk aversion sentiment is clearly increasing.

Looking at on-chain data from Glassnode, the MVRV-Z Score of XRP is signaling something quite interesting. It dropped into negative territory in early February, which historically often indicates a bottom formation. Back in July last year, when this indicator was at a similar level, XRP then rose from $0.45 to $2.91 by December. Currently, it remains around -0.13, so the likelihood that this token has completed its bottoming process is quite high.

However, there is a concern. The amount of XRP transferred to exchanges increased to about 12.99 billion XRP last week. During such volatile periods, transferring assets to exchanges often reflects a defensive mindset, as people want to take profits or cut risks. This could suppress the price recovery momentum.

From a technical perspective, XRP is well below key EMA levels: the 50-day EMA at $1.76, the 100-day EMA at $1.97, and the 200-day EMA around $2.16. All three are trending downward, indicating that the bearish trend still dominates. The RSI is at 32, approaching oversold territory, meaning buying interest remains cautious. However, the MACD histogram bars are gradually narrowing in red, hinting that the downward momentum is weakening. If the MACD crosses above the signal line, market sentiment could improve.

The nearest technical target is the $1.40 level. If XRP breaks through this threshold, it could pave the way for a more stable rebound toward the opening weekly level at $1.43. But as long as it remains within the current unfavorable structure, risks persist, and the price could continue sliding down to the $1.25 zone. I will keep monitoring whether Brad Garlinghouse's participation in the CFTC webinar influences XRP's direction or not. For now, we need stronger signals before making any decisions.