Just noticed yields are creeping up across the board on government securities this week, and honestly it makes sense given what's happening. The BSP is basically signaling they might pump the brakes on rate cuts if oil prices keep climbing past that $100 mark, which would trigger more inflation concerns. That's a pretty significant shift from the easing cycle they've been running since 2024.

Looking at the data, the 10-year bond yield jumped noticeably last week, with shorter-term bills also moving higher. Rizal's chief economist flagged that the Middle East situation is pushing crude prices up, which directly impacts inflation expectations here. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points last month to 4.25%, bringing total cuts to 225 basis points, but if oil keeps surging, that momentum could reverse pretty quickly.

The Treasury is dropping P27 billion in T-bills this week (split across 91, 182, and 364-day tenors) plus another P20 to P30 billion in reissued 10-year bonds. Demand's still solid though - last week's auction was almost 3x oversubscribed with over P76 billion in bids. Shorter-term papers are getting the strongest interest from investors playing it safe during this volatility.

There's definitely some recalibration happening in the market right now. US jobs data and any new Middle East developments will probably be the next big movers for sentiment.