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Styrene: Driven by cost factors, prices initially rise then fall
This week, the styrene price rose first and then fell. As of April 1, the closing average price in the Jiangsu market was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from March 25, an increase of 4%. During the week, price fluctuations were mainly driven by the cost side, and fundamentals supported prices to rise more than they fell.
Costs: As of the close on April 1, Brent crude oil fell 1.04% from last Wednesday. On the pure benzene side, arrivals at East China main ports were limited; main-port inventories declined, and there was still an expectation of inventory drawdown in April. Overall, fundamentals still provided some support. As of the close on April 1, the average price in the East China market was up 5.28% from last Wednesday, and the price trend also followed a pattern of rising first and then falling.
Supply and demand: With the restart of some units, and as operations stabilize after the restart, this week domestic production growth is higher than expected. The output of the main downstream three S products may also decline on average, and domestic consumption continues to weaken. However, export negotiations were active during the week; continuous successful export deals boosted market confidence. In addition, based on export orders being shipped out and sailing overseas in sequence, arrivals at main ports during the week were limited. Port inventories saw a wide-range drawdown, and fundamentals provided the market with some support.
Forecast: At present, the pricing logic in the styrene market is still mainly centered on the cost side. Uncertainty in the situation around the Strait of Hormuz may, to some extent, limit the downside of oil prices. For April styrene, fundamentals should focus on the balance between a potential reduction in domestic demand and an increase in external demand going forward. It is expected that the April supply-demand gap will still be negative, which may also support the view that styrene prices are more likely to rise than to fall. (Zhuochuang Information)