How will stocks and bonds perform this year? Huayuan Securities Strategy Conference presents key insights.

Ask AI · How can insufficient consumption promote China’s strategic economic transformation?

China Finance Online (Cailianshe), March 20 (Reporter Lin Jian) Brokerage firms’ spring strategy conferences have already begun intensively. As one of the “dark horses” in recent years’ sell-side research industry, Huayuan Securities’ 2026 Spring Strategy Conference, held from March 19 to 20, also clarified its core viewpoints.

In macroeconomic terms, the main view emphasizes that the current key issue is insufficient consumption. It is necessary to focus on terminal demand as the source, rely on consumption to drive effective investment, and in the medium to long term, implement the three major strategies of strengthening manufacturing, consumption, and finance. The 2026 GDP growth target is 4.5%–5%, with stable policies. The “14th Five-Year Plan” period will focus on three main lines: digital infrastructure, carbon reduction, and advanced manufacturing.

Regarding geopolitics, which everyone is most concerned about, the main warning is that if the Strait of Hormuz “paralysis” persists for 4–8 weeks, it could trigger a chain crisis. The duration of the conflict will determine oil prices, inflation, and the global economic trajectory. Vigilance is needed against the risk of stagflation-type recession.

Market strategy views hold that in the second half of the AI era, the core is in China. This will reprice the global supply chain and help establish the renminbi’s pricing power. It is expected that the 2026 bond market environment will be friendly, with pricing power shifting toward demand for allocation. The yield fluctuation range of government bonds is expected to be within a defined band. Rationally viewing the AI research and investment boom, the core competitive advantage lies in precise allocation of high-quality Skills.

From the conference agenda, this year’s spring strategy conference covers six tracks: macro strategy, technological innovation, cyclical industries, consumption upgrading, future technology, and the Beijing Stock Exchange. It spans top-level macro analysis to industry-specific implementation, from asset allocation across major categories to individual stock investment clues, forming a comprehensive, systematic outlook for 2026. The conference also emphasizes the practical docking needs between industry and capital, establishing closed-door exchanges between listed companies and institutional investors. The reporter learned that over 400 listed companies participated, with more than 1,000 attendees.

Mei Lin, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Wuhan Financial Holding Group, and also Secretary and Chairman of Huayuan Securities, used a marathon as an analogy to depict persistence and cooperation on the investment journey. He revealed that in 2025, Wuhan Financial Holding Group achieved operating revenue of 135.8 billion yuan, with total assets reaching 326.7 billion yuan. The group entered China’s Top 500 for the eighth time, setting a new record. He expressed gratitude for the trust and partnership of all sectors and looks forward to jointly crossing the finish line of win-win investment.

From a “blank sheet” to today’s industry hot research institutes, Huayuan Research’s brand influence has gradually grown. Since its deployment began in December 2023, supported by Wuhan Financial Holding Group, the institute has achieved leapfrog development. The institute also stated that in the future, it will continue to follow industry frontiers, deepen industry research, and strengthen collaborative empowerment, to fulfill its original mission of serving the real economy with higher-quality research, contributing professional wisdom and solid strength to the high-quality development of the group and local economy.

CPPCC Economic Committee Liu Shijin: Promoting a Shift Toward Innovation-Driven Consumption

At the strategy conference, Liu Shijin, Vice Chairman of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference’s Economic Committee and former Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, analyzed the core support and potential challenges for economic growth in the first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan,” explaining the strategic direction for long-term economic development.

He pointed out that the core problem China faces is that nominal growth rates are lower than real growth, mainly due to insufficient consumption—especially the large gap in development-oriented consumption among middle- and low-income groups. He emphasized the need to address this at the source: raise terminal demand and drive effective investment through consumption. “The height of economic growth determines potential capacity; the width determines actual levels.”

He advocates implementing the three major strategies of strengthening manufacturing, consumption, and finance, to shift the economy from investment and export-driven to innovation-led consumption.

Guanguan Think Tank Yang Yiyu: Warning of Chain Crisis from Strait “Paralysis”

Yang Yiyu, Director of the Northeast Asia Research Center at Guanguan Think Tank, focuses on “2026 international geopolitical hotspots and their impacts,” analyzing the core changes in global geopolitical patterns and their potential shocks to capital markets and industry transmission effects.

His main point is that war has shifted from quick decisive battles to an “asymmetric” prolonged consumption war. He believes that the duration of the Strait of Hormuz’s “de facto paralysis” is a key variable. If it lasts 4–8 weeks, it could trigger a chain crisis, including soaring oil and gas prices, rising demand for safe assets, fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, and increases in prices of bulk commodities like chemicals, fertilizers, and agricultural products, leading to inflation, suppressed economic growth, and a series of chain reactions.

“War duration is the main variable; it determines the trajectory of oil prices, inflation, and even global economic growth,” he warned. He cautioned that if the conflict escalates further, the global economy risks stagflation, and markets must remain highly alert.

Economist Liu Yuhui: The Core of AI’s Second Half Is in China

Liu Yuhui, member of the China Chief Economist Forum, will present on “2026 Macro Economy and Market Outlook,” addressing key issues such as the macroeconomic trajectory and market trends for the year, providing a concrete annual outlook.

He noted that the U.S.-Iran conflict accelerates the breakdown of the old dollar-oil order. The U.S. faces high inflation, high interest rates, and high valuations. China, with its energy structure, supply chain, and manufacturing efficiency, will become a source of global safe-asset risk premiums. The core of AI’s second half is in China: it will reprice the global supply chain, fundamentally rewriting the global trade order, and promote the establishment of renminbi pricing power and global order transition.

What is the outlook for 2026 macro development?

How should we interpret this year’s macro environment changes and the strategic investment opportunities they present? Sun Suyu, Chief Macro Analyst at Huayuan Securities, offers the latest insights. His team is the newest macro force introduced by Huayuan Securities this year, exemplifying talent deployment at the research institute. Currently, Huayuan Securities is accelerating talent recruitment for the institute.

He explained that domestic macro policies and industry directions have shifted focus to traditional investment and infrastructure, with overall policies remaining stable. The 2026 GDP growth target is set at 4.5%–5%; the fiscal deficit ratio remains at 4%. The scale of the broader deficit is unchanged from last year. Economic growth targets rely more on off-balance-sheet financial credit support—particularly leveraging 800 billion yuan in policy-based financial instruments to boost infrastructure investment. The “14th Five-Year Plan” emphasizes digital infrastructure, carbon reduction, and advanced manufacturing as key directions for medium- and long-term industrial layout.

For institutional asset allocation, considering geopolitical trends and the domestic and global economic environment, he recommends focusing on defensive and high-growth sectors in Q2, maintaining a “dumbbell” allocation structure. On the offensive, focus on new technologies like CPO and large models, as well as power grid investments. On the defensive side, besides high-dividend assets, increase strategic allocation to consumption sectors, which benefit from better-than-expected Spring Festival data, low base effects, and historically low valuations and institutional holdings—plus a low-interest-rate environment that favors consumption—highlighting the value of consumption sector allocation.

How to view 2026 bond market investment strategies?

Huayuan Securities’ Chief Fixed Income Analyst Liao Zhiming presents the 2026 bond market strategy. He noted that in 2025, China’s economy showed “strong supply, weak demand”: resilient production and exports, but weak domestic demand. This pattern may persist into 2026—steady low growth in consumption, slight recovery in investment—creating a relatively favorable macro environment for bonds. He also mentioned that the phase-driven rise in crude oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict could delay policy rate cuts to mid-year or later. In 2026, a RRR cut of 50–100 basis points and a 10–20 basis point reduction in policy rates are expected, driving LPR down accordingly.

He believes that bond pricing in 2026 will tilt toward demand-driven allocation. With bond dealers’ proprietary positions reducing holdings of ultra-long bonds, and trading books’ long-bond holdings sharply declining, their influence on the market may weaken. The pricing power of institutional allocators like banks and insurance firms is expected to increase. As banks’ funding costs decline faster, the spread on bonds will widen. Incremental bond investments by banks’ proprietary trading are expected to further rise, and insurance, pension, and wealth management products will also generate significant bond demand.

Looking ahead, he expects bond supply and demand to improve markedly in 2026. Government bond issuance will be roughly the same as last year, with no growth in ultra-long bonds. Net issuance will be about 20 trillion yuan. The 10-year government bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the 30-year active bond yield between 1.9% and 2.4%.

How can AI drive a new paradigm for investment research?

The entry of “(OpenClaw),” also known as “Crayfish,” into the investment research field has been the hottest topic since 2026. Yang Yiling, Assistant to the Head of Huayuan Securities and Chief of Financial Engineering, demonstrated how AI is transforming work modes. She clarified that full deployment of AI for automated research will still take time. Currently, information overload is the main pain point; AI-assisted research involves aggregating and refining vast information sources.

She believes that current large models are still limited by the Transformer architecture. While they cannot yet deliver “stable returns with one sentence,” they excel in executing existing research frameworks. She advises researchers to adopt a rational view of this wave of technological hype, avoiding excessive anxiety and blind following.

Regarding this “shrimp-farming” boom, how should research view it? Yang Yiling shared her perspective. She believes AI’s potential to replace routine tasks is already significant, but effectiveness depends heavily on user coding and configuration skills. With tools like one-click deployment becoming widespread, technical barriers have greatly lowered. The core competitive advantage shifts to “precise high-quality Skill allocation.” Excessive redundant Skills can cause large models to omit important information, and automatic switching to built-in Agent modes may weaken the customization advantage of professional work.

(China Finance Online (Cailianshe) reporter Lin Jian)