CITIC Construction Investment: Optimistic about the investment value of lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery sectors

CITIC Securities’ research report states that high global oil prices are accelerating the electrification trend worldwide, and the high-cycle optimism in lithium batteries is driving increased demand for equipment. As the situation in the Middle East escalates and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, geopolitical conflicts may keep international energy prices—represented by crude oil—at relatively high levels for the long term. Lithium batteries, as an emerging form of propulsion and energy storage, will benefit significantly. The expansion pace of leading battery companies is accelerating. Orders for key lithium-battery equipment such as stacking, coating, and formation are quickly recovering. Pilot line construction for solid-state batteries is also being stepped up in parallel, and equipment-side tendering and delivery are entering a dense period. With the current sector’s demand-driven logic being clear, high oil prices and high downstream cycle optimism are creating a resonance effect. We continue to be optimistic about the allocation value of lithium-battery equipment and solid-state battery sectors.

Full text as follows

Tesla is warming up for Optimus V3, and AIDC power-generation equipment continues to benefit from North American power shortages

Humanoid robots: Tesla releases videos to keep warming up for Optimus V3, and the sector gradually enters the configuration range. Tesla releases a video and captions it to say that Optimus will be the greatest product ever, and that Optimus places as much importance on design and manufacturing as on the product itself. The current goal is to achieve mass production as quickly as possible. Optimus V3 continues to be teased; the subsequent product releases and mass-production progress are worth close attention. IPOs of domestically produced robot companies such as Unitree Technology continue to advance. Their in-house products have a high value per unit and are close to end customers, and they have a prominent position within the industrial chain and strong brand power. In-house manufacturers are expected to see a re-rating of valuations. We recommend paying attention to the relevant supply chain. The robot sector is gradually entering the configuration range. Both the Unitree IPO and Tesla V3 have been building momentum.

AIDC power-generation equipment: Power shortages remain the main storyline throughout the year. We firmly like the gas turbine industry chain. Based on our calculations, global demand for gas turbines will exceed 120GW in 2028. We expect global gas-turbine supply to be about 90GW, and the gap will continue to widen. We continue to like the gas turbine industry chain and trends such as converting ships to gas.

Construction machinery: We expect that in March, domestic excavator sales will recover to year-on-year growth, while exports will maintain high growth. In January and February 2026, a total of 35,934 excavators were sold, up 13.1% year over year. Of which: domestic sales were 15,478 units, down 9.19% year over year; and exports were 20,456 units, up 38.8% year over year. There is a single-digit decline year over year in the domestic market, but export performance is strong. Overseas markets are the main contributor to profits. Taking FX translation into account, we still expect solid performance from main equipment makers in Q1 overall. We estimate that the domestic market in 2026 has the potential to achieve growth of more than 10%, exports could grow by more than 15%, and that internal and external demand will continue to resonate upward.

Semiconductor equipment: SEMICON’s exhibition has concluded successfully. We felt the following: (1) This exhibition clearly showed that the number of attendees from Japan and Korea was higher than in previous years; there are early signs that equipment is beginning to go overseas. Companies emphasizing independently owned intellectual property are expected to achieve large-scale overseas expansion first. (2) The core equipment makers launched new products with more focus on vertical extension, emphasizing progress in advanced process technology. (3) Last year’s high-interest player Newkilo (新凯来) was absent. Its subsidiaries Wanli Eye and Qiyunfang participated, sending signals such as the introduction or release of spectrum analyzers, EDA software, etc. (4) Compared with the overall cycle level, both orders and performance for back-end equipment have achieved high growth. Overall, we remain firmly confident in the sector’s investment opportunities. On the downstream side of capacity expansion, we expect 2026 fab capital expenditures will still move upward. Among them, storage is the most certain. Advanced logic is expected to continue to maintain strong performance. On localization rates, downstream companies are generally accelerating validation and adoption of domestically made equipment. The localization process for components—especially module-type components—is expected to accelerate. The sector’s fundamentals are broadly favorable overall, and this round should give even more attention to “de-Japanese and de-Korean (de-nichi/ de-richi).”

Lithium battery equipment: High oil prices are accelerating the global electrification trend, and high-cycle optimism in lithium batteries is boosting equipment demand. As the situation in the Middle East escalates and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, geopolitical conflicts may keep international energy prices—represented by crude oil—at relatively high levels for the long term. Lithium batteries, as an emerging form of propulsion and energy storage, will benefit significantly. The expansion pace of leading battery companies is accelerating. Orders for key lithium-battery equipment such as stacking, coating, and formation are quickly recovering. Pilot line construction for solid-state batteries is also being stepped up in parallel, and equipment-side tendering and delivery are entering a dense period. With the current sector’s demand-driven logic being clear, high oil prices and high downstream cycle optimism are creating a resonance effect. We continue to be optimistic about the allocation value of lithium-battery equipment and solid-state battery sectors.

Risk warnings: risks of fluctuations in domestic macroeconomic conditions, risks of fluctuations in overseas markets, and risks that downstream capacity expansions will not meet expectations.

（Source: First Finance）