Market Strategy Tips (April 1 — April 2, from yesterday to today)

Market Analysis
From yesterday to today (4.1—4.2), the market has shown a triple resonance of expectations for geopolitical easing being fulfilled, US economic data exceeding expectations, and re-pricing of rate hike expectations. Gold continued its strong rally for four consecutive days, approaching a new all-time high of $4,800 before encountering resistance and pulling back; the crypto market experienced intense volatility within the 60,000–68,000 range, with a sudden flash crash in the early session, increased long and short liquidations, and an overall pattern of high-level divergence and soaring volatility.
Macro News

Core Macro Theme: Data Surpassing Expectations, Significantly Reduced Rate Cut Expectations

US March ADP employment added 62,000 jobs (expected 40,000), March Manufacturing PMI at 52.7 (a new high since August 2022), and February retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, demonstrating economic resilience beyond expectations and reigniting concerns over sticky inflation.
Federal Reserve officials (Moussoum) stated that maintaining current interest rates for a period remains appropriate. CME interest rate futures show only a 3.9%—6.6% chance of rate cuts in June, fully pricing in “higher rates for longer.”
The US dollar index rebounded after a dip, returning above 105.9; the 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated in the **4.31%—4.38%** range, exerting temporary pressure on gold and risk assets.
Middle East: Iran expressed willingness to cease fire, Trump plans a nationwide speech, but Israeli military continues airstrikes, US troops increase in the Middle East, leading to a situation of easing but no ceasefire, with risk aversion sentiments fluctuating.

Gold: Four-day rally approaching 4800, retreat after surge, technical overbought signals

Spot gold closed yesterday up 1.9% at $4,758, with a daily high of $4,792; in the Asian session today, it briefly hit $4,800 before quickly retreating to the $4,668–$4,673 range, with an intraday volatility of over $130.
Driving factors for the rise:
Short covering + technical oversold correction: Buying interest surged after previous sharp declines.
Weakening dollar + central bank gold purchases: Global central banks net bought 215 tons of gold in Q1, providing bottom support.
Geopolitical easing → Reignition of rate cut expectations: After conflict cooling, the Fed has room for easing.
Key ranges: Support at $4,650–$4,680, strong resistance at $4,750–$4,800.
Risk signals: RSI approaching overbought, MACD red bars narrowing, bullish momentum waning, increasing short-term correction pressure.

Crypto Market: Repeated support at 60,000, flash crash in early session, volatility at extreme levels

Bitcoin fluctuated yesterday in the $66,000–$68,400 range, closing near $68,200; within 10 minutes this morning, it plunged over 6%, breaking below $67,000 and $66,000, with a low of $65,997, then rebounded slightly to $66,600.
Funds and On-chain Data:
BTC ETF net outflows on April 1 totaled $88 million (GBTC net outflow of $303 million), indicating weakening capital flow.
15,300 traders were liquidated in 24 hours, totaling $474 million, with both longs and shorts wiped out.
Exchange net outflows of BTC slowed, with signs of whale accumulation below 66,000, but selling pressure has clearly increased.

Technical and Sentiment: Daily chart remains in a downtrend, 66,000 is a short-term critical level; Fear & Greed Index at 18 (Extreme Fear), sentiment extremely fragile.

Special Reminders

Gold: The short-term rebound driven by correction + short covering, not a trend reversal. Resistance at $4,800 has been validated, with technical overbought and hawkish data exerting double pressure. Strictly avoid chasing highs; recommended to buy low and sell high within the $4,650–$4,750 range, keep positions light, set stop-loss at $4,620. If US Treasury yields rise again or geopolitical sentiment cools, beware of deep corrections below $4,600.
Crypto Market: Support at 60,000 is at risk, the flash crash early today confirmed high-level risk release. Resistance at 68,000–70,000, with 60,000 as a key defensive line. Reduce holdings to below 20%, stop all bottom-fishing and chasing operations; only consider small positions for long entries after volume stabilizes above 68,000, liquidation waves subside, and ETF funds flow back. Otherwise, stay on the sidelines and reduce positions on rallies.