Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | April 2, 2026

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Market Overview

Investors are betting that the U.S.-Iran conflict is nearing its end, and U.S. stocks rose for the second consecutive trading day. The Nasdaq was up as much as 1.8%. After midday, a report said the U.S. Department of Defense accelerated the deployment of A-10 attack aircraft. As a result, U.S. stock gains narrowed. The S&P 500 closed up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq closed up 1.16%.

The energy sector fell by nearly 5% at one point during the day. The storage sector surged 8%. Micron Technology rose nearly 9%, and Western Digital jumped 10%. Eli Lilly rose 3.78%, and the oral weight-loss drug Foundayo was approved by the U.S. FDA. Google rose more than 3%, and the tech mega-cap group recorded its best two-day performance in nearly a year.

Despite U.S. ADP employment coming in above expectations, the ISM Manufacturing Payment Index subcomponents suggested inflation pressure is rising. U.S. Treasury yields rebounded sharply from the V shape and ended flat. The 2-year yield inched up 0.4 basis points.

The dollar fell for the second straight day. Bitcoin briefly broke above $69,000, then pulled back to flat, at $68,000. Ethereum rose 1.7%.

Gold rose by nearly 2% and was in a strong streak for four consecutive trading sessions, at one point approaching $4,800. Spot silver and copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) were choppy and edged slightly lower.

Crude oil initially dumped by about 7% from the day’s high, then rebounded and traded around the $100 level. At the New York close, WTI crude fell by nearly 3%, while Brent crude fell by more than 3%.

In the Asian session, the ChiNext rose by nearly 2%. Medical stocks exploded higher. “Laplace went limit-up,” and the Hang Seng Index rose more than 2%, while Zhiqing soared by more than 30%.

Headlines

China

Li Qiang: Focus on advancing the construction of a new type of power grid and accelerate optimization and adjustment of the energy mix.

China’s March RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.8, continuing expansion for four consecutive months, but price and supply-chain pressures are heating up.

Amid the fighting, the world’s only safe haven is China’s government bonds.

Overseas

Trump said he would consider a ceasefire only if the Strait of Hormuz is opened. Iran: The strait will not be opened to the enemy; a request for a ceasefire statement is baseless. It was reported that the U.S. military will deploy A-10 attack aircraft in the Middle East with the scale doubled. Trump is “seriously considering” having the United States withdraw from NATO. An open letter from Iran’s president to the U.S. public: The U.S. is effectively acting as Israel’s proxy; Iran has no hostility toward other countries and is not starting a war. Iran is reportedly asking that ceasefire talks must be premised on permanently ending the war. U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iran currently has no intention of conducting substantive talks. Trump said Iran no longer has the ability to develop nuclear weapons. It was reported that the UAE is preparing to help the U.S. use force to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Reports say the U.S. Treasury Department expects oil prices to remain above $100 for the long term, and does not rule out a rise to $200. IEA: April’s oil losses will be twice March’s, with the impact exceeding the total of three historical crises. Multiple Asian countries including the Philippines and South Korea have urgently turned to Russian oil.

Iran’s war disrupts the global aluminum supply chain; the Middle East’s top aluminum producer has shut down its smelters.

The Trump administration is reportedly planning to adjust steel and aluminum tariffs. The tax rate for steel and aluminum finished products would be unified at 25%, which is said to potentially raise the cost of imported goods.

U.S. March “small non-farm” ADP employment increased by 62,000, with wages accelerating. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI hit its strongest level since 2022, with soaring input costs intensifying inflation worries. U.S. February retail sales posted the largest increase in eight months: up 0.6% month-over-month, beating expectations. A rebound in auto consumption boosted domestic demand.

Driven by energy prices, Europe’s CPI hit the fastest growth rate in four years.

$600 million worth of OpenAI shares in the secondary market went untouched, while Anthropic shares were heavily snapped up.

SpaceX has already secretly filed for a U.S. IPO.

A rocket launched for a crewed mission orbiting the Moon for the U.S.

“Muddy Waters,” the king of short-sellers, is shifting to credit bonds. The CEO bets that AI will trigger mass layoffs and a wave of defaults.

Market Close Recap

U.S. and Europe stocks: The S&P 500 rose 0.72% to close at 6,575.32 points. The Dow rose 0.48% to 46,565.74 points. The Nasdaq rose 1.16% to 21,840.947 points. Europe’s STOXX 600 index closed up 2.50% at 597.69 points.

A-shares: The SSE Composite Index closed at 3,948.55 points, up 1.46%. The SZSE Component Index closed at 13,706.52 points, up 1.70%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3,247.52 points, up 1.96%.

Bond market: The yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury rose 0.20 basis points to 4.3186%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury rose 0.80 basis points to 3.8010%.

Commodities: May WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.24% at $100.12 per barrel. June Brent crude oil futures closed down 2.70% at $101.16 per barrel. Spot gold rose 1.91% to $4,757.17 per ounce. Spot silver fell 0.09% to $75.0995 per ounce.

Headlines in Detail

Global Focus

China

Li Qiang: Focus on advancing the construction of a new type of power grid, and accelerate optimization of the energy structure. Li Qiang said we should actively explore new frameworks, new technologies, and new services, improve network construction, enhance system coordination and regulation capabilities, strengthen diversified demand assurance, and build a new type of power grid that is safe and reliable, green and low-carbon, resilient and tough, and intelligent and flexible.

China’s March RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.8, continuing expansion for four straight months, but price and supply-chain pressures are heating up. China’s March RatingDog manufacturing PMI clearly slowed from February’s 52.1; it remains in the second-fastest level over the past six months. However, input-price costs accelerated to the highest level since March 2022. Suppliers’ delivery times lengthened by the greatest magnitude in over three years. RatingDog founder Yao Yu said that as international geopolitical conflicts intensify, volatility in the bulk raw materials market has increased. This imported-inflation factor is expected to continue to pose a “severe test” to manufacturers’ costs in April.

Amid the war, the world’s only safe haven turned out to be China’s government bonds! Iran’s war has hit global bond markets, yet China’s government bonds strengthened against the tide, becoming the only safe haven amid the chaos. U.S. Treasury yields surged by 38 basis points, UK gilts rose even more sharply by 70 basis points, while China’s 10-year government bond yield edged down slightly to 1.81%. A diversified energy structure, a low-inflation environment, and expectations of loose monetary policy—together with the predictability of central bank policy—are driving global institutional investors to reexamine the long-term strategic value of China’s bond market.

Overseas

Trump said he would consider a ceasefire only if the Strait of Hormuz is opened. Iran: The strait will not be opened to the enemy; a ceasefire statement request is baseless. Trump said the new administration’s president of Iran, the current president, is more rational than his predecessor, and Iran has asked the U.S. for a ceasefire. The U.S. side “will consider it only when the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and kept open without obstacles.” Before that, it “will turn Iran into rubble.” He also said he will “soon” withdraw from the Iran conflict, and that it is “absolutely” considering leaving NATO. Iran reiterated that it will blockade the strait as a countermeasure, saying the strait is under Iran’s firm absolute control and “will not reopen to Iran’s enemies again because of a performance by the U.S. president.”

It was reported that the U.S. military will deploy A-10 attack aircraft in the Middle East with the scale doubled, and U.S. stocks narrowed their gains. It was reported that the U.S. Air Force is sending 18 A-10 attack aircraft to the Middle East. The U.S. adjusts its deployment to strengthen capabilities for close-range strikes and “low-intensity war.” The A-10 is mainly used to target threats from Iran-backed armed forces, drones, and small vessels. Doubling the aircraft deployment means the U.S. can significantly enhance its ability to carry out “persistent pressure” missions in the Gulf region.

Trump is “seriously considering” having the U.S. withdraw from NATO. U.S. Defense Secretary: When carrying out a large-scale action against Iran, NATO allies would not even give the U.S. permission to simply pass through. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said Iran’s missiles “cannot hit the U.S. homeland at all,” but can hit some NATO allies. However, everyone around the world can see that when the U.S. conducts a large-scale action against Iran, NATO allies even do not give the U.S. simple permission to pass through. When the U.S. needs these ally countries, these countries are unwilling to stand with the U.S., so this alliance is not living up to its name.

Iran’s president sent an open letter to the U.S. public: The U.S. is effectively acting as Israel’s proxy; Iran has no hostility toward other countries and is not starting a war. Pezeshkian said that Iran’s existing and future actions are a response based on the right to legitimate self-defense. The U.S. military has assembled around Iran to form a substantial military threat, and attacking Iran’s infrastructure constitutes war crimes. U.S.-Iran relations are among the most misunderstood relations; he called on the U.S. public to look beyond the appearances of political rhetoric, reassess Iran’s stance and intentions, and question whether current U.S. policy aligns with its core national interests of “America First.” He warned that the cost of continuing down the path of confrontation is “higher than ever, and also meaningless.”

Iran is reportedly insisting that ceasefire negotiations must be premised on permanently ending the war. U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iran currently has no intention of conducting substantive negotiations. U.S. officials said the assessments by U.S. intelligence agencies are that the Iranian government believes it has the advantage in the war, so it does not need to accept the diplomatic demands proposed by the U.S. Although Iran is willing to keep communication channels open, it does not trust the U.S., and does not believe Trump is serious about negotiations.

Iran emphasized ignoring the U.S.-Israel “fantasies and lies,” and warned of a proportionate response involving “terror actions.” Iran’s former foreign minister was severely injured in an attack, and Trump said Iran no longer has the ability to develop nuclear weapons. Iran’s president stressed national independence and security. Iran’s foreign ministry said the Supreme Leader is in good health but postponed public appearances due to the war, and is ready to respond to any attack. Iran’s military warned it would strike U.S.-linked intelligence companies, reiterated its warning to 18 U.S. firms. Iran said it has shot down 150 U.S.-Israel drones, and its ultimate goal of the retaliatory action includes the U.S. military withdrawing from the Middle East. The largest missile attack on Israel since the conflict began. Trump plans to deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday night with an “important update” on the Iran issue. Trump is reportedly asking the military to submit plans to seize Iran’s nuclear materials. It was revealed that he relayed the message to Iran through Vance, and that meeting “specific demands” such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be considered for a ceasefire.

Reports say the UAE is preparing to help the U.S. use force to open the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE is rapidly transforming from an “intermediary” into a “quasi-participant in wartime.” Iran carried out attacks on Dubai with more than 2,500 missiles and drones, severely damaging the core lifelines of its tourism, shipping, and real estate sectors. The UAE is now actively lobbying the UN Security Council to authorize the use of force to open the strait and is seeking to form an international joint operation force. However, analysts warn that the military feasibility is questionable, and if anything goes wrong, it could get stuck in a regional war that is hard to conclude.

Reports say the U.S. Treasury Department expects oil prices to remain above $100 for the long term, and a rise to $200 is not ruled out. According to reports, the U.S. Treasury has already treated more than $100 as an oil-price “benchmark scenario” and has not ruled out an extreme case of $200. The White House denied predictions of short-term oil prices. The report, citing people familiar with the matter, said the government is exploring using emergency powers and other unconventional measures such as restricting crude oil exports to suppress oil prices. Analysts warned that a “supply window” gap will deliver the real shock to the U.S. about two weeks later, and prices for diesel, jet fuel, and other products could jump, significantly increasing the burden on consumers.

IEA: April’s oil losses will be twice March’s, and the scale of the impact exceeds the total of three historical crises. “In April, there is nothing.” The IEA deputy director warned that in March, some oil tankers that had transited the Strait of Hormuz before the war broke out were still arriving at ports one after another, but that buffer in April will completely disappear. This oil shock exceeds the total of two oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 Russia gas supply cutoff. He also warned that shortages of aviation fuel and diesel have already spread to Asia, and are expected to spread further to Europe from April to May.

Multiple Asian countries, including the Philippines and South Korea, have urgently turned to Russian oil. According to reports, taking advantage of the U.S. issuing a 30-day waiver from sanctions on Russian oil, highly Middle East energy-dependent countries in Asia—including the Philippines, South Korea, and India—are urgently restarting or expanding purchases of Russian oil to fill supply gaps and ease domestic energy emergencies. The Philippines announced an energy emergency. Refiners Petron purchased 2.5 million barrels of Russian oil. India’s purchase volume doubled to 1.9 million barrels per day.

Iran’s war disrupts the global aluminum supply chain; the Middle East’s top aluminum producer shuts down its smelters. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), with its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi, suffered a power outage after attacks by Iranian missiles and drones, forcing it to urgently suspend production. If you add a reduction at Qatar’s Qatalum smelter, the attacks could affect nearly half of aluminum output in the Middle East. After news about EGA broke, Alcoa accelerated higher, rising nearly 9% at one point.

The Trump administration is reportedly planning to adjust steel and aluminum tariffs. The tax rate for steel and aluminum finished products would be unified at 25%, which is said to potentially raise the cost of imported goods. Current policy requires calculating the tax burden based on the steel and aluminum content in products, with a maximum tariff of 50%. Comments say the new adjustments do not mean the level of trade protection will be substantially weakened. For companies that previously had difficulty accurately calculating metal content, the tax burden may actually become more certain and even increase. Moreover, uniform tariff collection could expand the scope of tariff application.

“Small non-farm” blew way past expectations! U.S. March ADP employment added 62,000 jobs, with wages accelerating. In March, U.S. private-sector employment increased by 62,000, above the median forecast of 40,000 from Bloomberg survey analysts. The previous month’s jobs increase was 63,000, roughly in line with this month. The annual pay raise for retained employees was maintained at 4.5%, unchanged for the third straight month. For job-hoppers, wage growth rose by 0.3 percentage points from the prior month to 6.6%.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI hit the strongest level since 2022, and soaring input costs intensified inflation concerns. The U.S. March ISM manufacturing index was 52.7, the highest in three years. Meanwhile, the index for prices paid for manufacturing inputs rose by 7.8 points month-over-month to 78.3, the highest level since mid-2022. Over the past two months, the prices-paid index has risen 19.3 points cumulatively, the largest increase in nearly a decade. Rising input costs may put upward pricing pressure on U.S. manufacturers, and the market has raised its inflation expectations.

U.S. February retail sales posted the largest increase in eight months: up 0.6% month-over-month, beating expectations. A rebound in auto consumption supported domestic demand. U.S. February retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, versus expectations of 0.5% and a prior value of -0.2%. Among them, the rebound in car purchases was an important driver. Core retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services rose 0.5% month-over-month, versus expectations of 0.3% and a prior value of 0.2%. Analysts said a February tax refund boosted consumption among low-income groups, but high-income households still remained the main driver of consumer spending.

Driven by energy prices, Europe’s CPI hit the fastest growth rate in four years. Although eurozone core inflation unexpectedly eased to 2.3% in March, services inflation cooled in sync. But overall inflation year-over-year rose to 2.5% in March, the highest level since January 2025. It surged 1.9% month-over-month, the biggest increase since 2022. Multiple central bank officials released hawkish signals, with no ruling out the possibility of raising rates earlier.

$600 million worth of OpenAI shares in the secondary market went untouched, while Anthropic shares were snapped up like crazy. Next Round Capital’s founder said that in recent weeks, about six institutional investors have contacted his company, seeking to sell roughly $600 million of OpenAI stock. Last year, these shares were typically snapped up within days. But now, they are going nowhere. At present, market bids value OpenAI at about $765 billion, a discount of about 10% from the prior valuation of $850 billion. For Anthropic, the offered valuation is about $600 billion, more than 50% higher than the previous funding round. OpenAI said it does not endorse and will not participate in these transactions.

• Global investors are pushing large model companies into “price-to-dream multiples.” OpenAI has set one of the largest funding rounds in Silicon Valley history. Measured by price-to-earnings, this company is not yet profitable, and it will be hard to say when—if ever—in the next few years it will turn a profit. That is the “price-to-dream multiple”: investors are betting that AI will change everything. Revenue is surging, losses are soaring, shorting institutions are waiting for their moment, and the IPO and lock-up release wave is drawing nearer step by step. This capital frenzy driven by narrative is heading into a critical phase.

SpaceX has secretly filed for a U.S. IPO. According to media reports citing people familiar with the matter, SpaceX has secretly submitted its initial public offering (IPO) application. The company has filed a draft IPO registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and requested anonymity. SpaceX has informed potential investors that it will arrange for company executives to hold roadshow presentations this month. The company has invited U.S. banks including Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley to serve as the lead underwriters for the IPO, and has also added more banks to participate.

A rocket launches for a crewed mission around the Moon. Local time on the 1st evening, NASA’s new lunar-landing rocket, the “Space Launch System,” launched from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida to carry out the crewed lunar orbit mission “Artemis 2.” This is the first time since 1972 that the United States has sent a crewed mission to the Moon.

“Muddy Waters,” the king of short-selling, shifts to credit bonds; the CEO bets that AI will trigger mass layoffs and a wave of defaults. Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Capital, believes AI will cause large-scale unemployment, leading to high unemployment and weakening economic conditions, eroding companies’ revenue and ability to service debt, and ultimately widening credit spreads and triggering a wave of defaults. He also noted that the current market’s size of passive investment is too large: credit bond ETFs have much higher liquidity than the underlying bonds, which will amplify volatility when the shock arrives.

Selected Research Reports

Citadel star analyst: Understand the Iran war—“track the troops, not Twitter.” Citadel Securities analyst Shah issued a warning: the Middle East war is not a one-off shock, but a persistent crisis that can reshape the global growth and inflation trajectory. The conflict has shifted from an inflation shock to a growth risk, with the specter of stagflation appearing. Because AI is highly dependent on the energy side, it faces unique vulnerabilities, while bonds may regain their hedging value. His only advice is one sentence—“track the troops, not Twitter.”

What does Trump “wash his hands of it” with the Strait of Hormuz mean for oil prices? Trump said he is willing to end the war while the Strait of Hormuz remains broadly closed, and will shift the responsibility for reopening the strait to its allies. Deutsche Bank warned that there is no clear improvement in actual transit volume data through the strait. If the blockade continues until November, the average price of Brent crude could reach $177 per barrel. Multiple obstacles—such as the U.S. mine-sweeping ships not being in place, the possibility that the Houthis may intervene, and IEA reserves only enough to last for one month—also make the reopening timeline of the strait full of uncertainty.

“Big Bull” Tom Lee: U.S. stocks often hit bottoms early in wars, and this adjustment is close to its end. Tom Lee, a well-known bull on Wall Street and founder of Fundstrat, pointed out that the S&P 500 typically bottoms within the first 10% of the duration of a war. After adjusting for inflation, oil prices are below the average since the beginning of this century, so the impact on the U.S. economy is limited. Given the current market positioning being extremely cautious, he believes the current adjustment has completed 90% to 95%.

SemiAnalysis breaks it down in depth: all details of the Blackwell architecture, and Nvidia’s never-before-public secrets. SemiAnalysis has, for the first time, broken down Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture: under AI workloads, the tensor cores and memory bandwidth are collectively approaching their theoretical peak, but performance depends heavily on instruction shapes and software tuning. The 2SM MMA achieves nearly perfect scaling, but SMEM bandwidth and about 300 cycles of cross-Die latency become the key bottleneck. Research reveals that Blackwell’s performance release does not depend on hardware ceilings, but on scheduling and optimization capabilities.

Domestic Companies / Industries

Zhipu’s first financial report is out; Zhang Peng’s latest remarks: Redefine the “first principles” of AGI commercialization—intelligent upper limits determine pricing power. Zhipu’s first financial report shows revenue of 724 million yuan, the top in China’s domestic sector, breaking the industry’s curse of persistent losses. CEO Zhang Peng emphasized the AGI commercial “first principle” that “intelligent upper limits determine pricing power.” Zhipu refuses a price war; instead it raises prices and sees a large increase in usage. The MaaS flywheel is running fully, and it also put forward a Token architecture capability (TAC) for the first time, leading the large-model industry back to the business path of creating value through technology.

• Wall Street’s take on Zhipu’s earnings: ARR explosion is the biggest surprise. Token—both quantity and pricing—rising together suggests there is already real pricing power. Zhipu’s open platform API annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached 1.7 billion yuan, up about 60x from 12 months ago. JPMorgan believes that the Token price of Zhipu’s API platform has risen 83% since the beginning of the year, while demand is still accelerating—quantity and price rising together. In the context of China’s large-model price war heating up, this phenomenon is extremely rare and directly confirms that Zhipu has already formed real pricing power in high-value scenarios such as programming and agents.

PCB, fiberglass: Nvidia ignites new demand in the industry. Leading companies kick off a new round of capacity expansion, and key materials will start rising in price from Wednesday. The AI computing power boom ignites the PCB industry chain! Composite Technology, Heilongjiang Dianhua, and Penaid Holdings’ combined capacity expansion is pegged at over 20 billion yuan, betting on Nvidia’s Rubin architecture changes, which further pulls demand for interconnects. Upstream raw materials are in full shortage—Mitsubishi Gas CCL prices are up 30%. The supply-demand gap for electronic fabric by 2027 may widen to 10.6%, and high-frequency copper foil prices are also continuing to trend upward. The data center PCB market may reach $23 billion by 2030; this hardware arms race is far from over.

Innovative drugs resurge after half a year; leaders enter a dense harvest period. Has the earnings inflection point arrived? The CSI Innovative Drugs Industry Index jumped 11% over the past week. Brokers say the innovative drug sector is in a stage of “earnings delivery, valuation repair, and meeting catalysts.” Multiple biotech and pharmaceutical companies have turned profitable for the first time in history, and fundamentals have improved. In the first quarter, the total authorized external licensing amount for China’s innovative drugs was nearly $57 billion, already surpassing the full-year 2024 level. The AACR and ASCO annual meetings are coming up soon, and the release of dense clinical data is expected to provide catalysts.

March EV results: BYD stays on top, overseas sales up 65%. NIO surged 136% year-over-year, while XPeng fell behind. China’s new energy vehicle companies’ March delivery data is out, and the “strong get stronger” pattern is clear: BYD delivered 300,200 vehicles in March, ranking first, with overseas sales up 65%. Geely New Energy delivered 127,000 vehicles. Li Auto delivered 41,000 vehicles. NIO delivered 35,000 vehicles in March, up 136% year-over-year. Zeekr delivered 29,000 vehicles. XPeng delivered 27,000 vehicles.

Overseas Macro

St. Louis Fed Musalem: Current interest rate levels may be maintained “for a while,” and the Fed is prepared for “both-direction” rate adjustments. St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said on Wednesday that current interest rates may remain appropriate for a fairly long period, but if economic conditions require it, he would support policy rate adjustments in any direction. He warned that risks on both ends of the labor market and inflation have risen. Market pricing currently holds the interest rate unchanged for the full year.

Since the Iran war, global central banks have sold $90 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries. Since conflict between the U.S. and Iran broke out, global foreign central banks have continuously sold U.S. government bonds for five straight weeks, with a cumulative scale of more than $90 billion. Their holdings have fallen to the lowest since 2012. Turkey leads the way, followed by Thailand, India, and others. Countries are rushing to realize dollar reserves to deal with pressure from FX interventions, energy imports, and defense spending. At the same time, Morgan Stanley data shows that the share of U.S. Treasuries held by foreign investors has fallen to 32.4%, the lowest since 1997.

Escalation of the alarm! Bank of England: AI deployment speed could get out of control, possibly triggering systemic shocks in private credit markets. The Bank of England issued a warning about the potential threat of AI to financial stability, noting that financial institutions’ use of AI could expand quickly and evolve into systemic financial risk. This risk has already shown up in the private credit market. In recent days, part of the wave of redemptions can be attributed to investors’ concerns about AI overturning prospects. AI-related risks could rise rapidly—from payments and financial markets to private credit—making refinancing more difficult.

Amid the shadow of the Iran war, South Korea’s exports surged 48% in March, with semiconductors at the core driver. Under the energy and logistics crisis triggered by the Iran war, South Korea’s export value in March soared 48.3% year-over-year, crossing $80 billion for the first time. This performance was mainly driven by semiconductor exports, boosted by the global AI boom. Semiconductor export value surged 151.4% year-over-year, hitting a historic breakthrough over $30 billion. But Middle East conflict caused a sharp drop in South Korea’s exports to the region and forced South Korea to impose export restrictions on key energy products such as naphtha.

Overseas Companies

After combing through 500,000 lines of leaked Claude Code, we found the secret that makes it actually useful. An Anthropic mistake unexpectedly revealed Claude Code’s underlying secrets: it proactively organizes memories like a human would. Its parallel sub-agent mode allows five agents with costs close to 1x. More intriguing than the tech is Buddy—the electronic pet that stays on the terminal. Anthropic used this April Fools’ Day easter egg to convey their product philosophy: tools are not only extensions of efficiency, but can also be connections of emotion.

Anthropic was pushed into a corner; its biological lobster was accidentally exposed. Karpathy: This is Claude Claw. The leaked Claude Code source code unexpectedly exposed Anthropic’s secret project “KAIROS.” This native “lobster” AI has extremely high agency, personality, and skills. It can automatically execute tasks and “dream” to process memories. This confirms Karpathy’s prediction: AI is evolving toward higher autonomy and has officially entered the “post-prompt” era.

AI strategy falling behind, successor unclear—this year the stock price has already fallen by nearly 7%. Apple faces the “five big soul-searching questions” for its 50th anniversary. Once a tech giant that reshaped consumer electronics with iPod and iPhone, it now faces multiple challenges including lagging AI strategy, weak hardware innovation, pressure in the China market, and an unresolved succession plan. Where the company goes in its second fifty years is now being closely scrutinized by Wall Street and the industry.

“The HBM father” predicts an AI architecture upheaval: memory will replace GPUs as the core. The “HBM father” predicts the AI architecture will shift from a GPU-centered model to a memory-centered one. In the agent AI era, memory demand could expand 1 million times. Existing HBM technology will reach the ceiling, and a new generation of HBF technology based on stacking NAND may produce engineering samples in 2027 and be adopted by Google or Nvidia in 2028. SK Hynix has teamed up with SanDisk to rush into the standard-setting, and Samsung is also rolling out the plan in parallel.

Tracking memory prices: DDR3 keeps climbing steadily, while DDR4/DDR5 remain high. Demand is softening. The spot memory market is becoming increasingly split. DDR3 is relatively firm thanks to price advantages and sporadic urgent orders. DDR4 and DDR5, on the other hand, are stuck in a stalemate between buyers and sellers due to high prices and suppressed end demand. Analysts point out that this round of adjustment is driven more by sentiment than by a systematic deterioration in demand. Contract prices remain relatively firm.

After aggressively buying gold, “stablecoin king” Tether suddenly fired two gold traders—just a few months after recruiting them from HSBC. The reasons for the departures of two veteran metal traders, Vincent Domien and Mathew O’Neill, are unclear. When they joined, Tether was in its record year for gold buying, with a goal of building the “best gold trading desk in the world.” However, in March the gold price fell under multiple pressures, and gold and Bitcoin both faced downward pressure. Analysts believe Tether will shrink the team after it completes the build-up.

High oil prices “fuel” renewable energy; U.S. solar stocks are on a good run. The Hormuz crisis sparks energy-security anxiety, and the renewable energy sector is replaying the logic of 2022. SolarEdge has gained 79% year-to-date, and its trend closely matches Brent crude oil and European natural gas prices. The higher fossil fuel prices are, the stronger solar’s competitiveness becomes—this trading logic is being widely recognized by the market. Policy expectations and the energy security narrative are resonating, further igniting enthusiasm in the sector.

“An era has ended,” Musk: Customized orders for Model S and Model X are over. Musk personally declared the finale: Tesla closes global customized orders for Model S and Model X, the Fremont plant ends production entirely, and the flagship mission reaches the end of its 14-year run. Meanwhile, Musk’s net worth has soared to $83.9 billion to top the list as the world’s richest person for the first time ever. Behind the curtain call of a generation of legend is Tesla’s strategic bet on the mass market and full-force autonomous driving.

A quiet deep winter for global luxury goods is here. LVMH’s quarterly decline is the worst since the dot-com bubble burst. LVMH’s stock price fell 28% in Q1, exceeding the single-quarter declines during the COVID-19 period and the 2008 financial crisis. With the Middle East conflict layered on top of company-specific worries such as limited exposure to consumer groups with constrained purchasing power, LVMH’s stock price has oversold. UBS analysts said that under extremely pessimistic sentiment, if earnings slightly beat expectations, it could trigger a sharp rebound in the stock price.

Boosting weight-loss drugs with sleep disorder coverage! Eli Lilly plans to acquire Centessa for up to $7.8 billion to enter treatments for narcolepsy and disorders of awakening. Eli Lilly announced a deal to acquire Centessa for up to $7.8 billion to enter treatments for narcolepsy and disorders of awakening. This move fills the gap in its sleep disorder layout and is a continuation of its strategy to expand into the central nervous system. The potential market for orexin-class drugs is far larger than sleep disorders, and could extend into broader areas such as neurodegenerative diseases and ADHD, opening up an imagination space of tens of billions of dollars.

Nike warns 2026 revenue may decline. The situation in the Middle East and high inflation drag down the recovery process, and the stock price plunges more than 15%. Nike released a pessimistic earnings outlook and warned that revenue for fiscal year 2026 may decline. Although third fiscal quarter results beat expectations, the outlook was pressured by Middle East turmoil and disruptions to European business. CEO Elliott Hill admitted he is “not satisfied” with current performance, and the transformation process is still under way.

Industry / Concepts

1、Semiconductors | Just last March, international semiconductor giants such as Texas Instruments and Infineon announced price hikes. For some products from Texas Instruments, the maximum increase reached 85%, while Infineon’s mainstream products are expected to rise 5% to 15%. In addition, China’s leading wafer foundry, Powerchip (Jianhe integrated), announced that starting June 1, it will uniformly raise prices by 10% for all wafer foundry products. Several chip design companies also issued price-increase notices. Companies such as Jiejie Microelectronics, C&S Technology, United Semiconductor, and Navis Micro generally have price adjustments in the range of 10% to 20%.

Commentary: Guosheng Securities said this round of price hikes is not just simple cyclical fluctuations, but rather a structural change driven by both the explosive growth of the AI industry and the rise in upstream raw material costs. Citic Securities believes that in the future, leading domestic wafer fabs will continue to expand capacity, and construction of advanced process production lines will speed up, providing huge market space for domestically produced semiconductor equipment and materials.

2、Nuclear fusion | Recently, Shanghai Energy’s commercial nuclear fusion company Energy Singularity—its globally first all-high-temperature superconducting tokamak device “Honghuang 70,” independently developed—successfully achieved 1,337 seconds of steady-state long-pulse plasma operation. It became the only commercial nuclear fusion company in the world to achieve thousand-second-level long-pulse operation, far exceeding the previously known upper limit of hundreds of seconds for commercial companies. This breakthrough not only validates the engineering feasibility and stability of the all-high-temperature superconducting technology route in fusion devices, but also presses the accelerator for nuclear fusion commercialization.

Commentary: Zhejiang Securities said the industry has entered a dense stage of equipment procurement, bidding, and construction. At the same time, AI computing power is generating electricity demand. With the importance of controllable fusion increasing as a key “ultimate energy” source, the industry is now in an engineering feasibility validation stage, and a series of experimental reactor stacks are entering a dense phase of equipment procurement, bidding, and construction. Upstream materials and midstream core equipment suppliers along the industrial chain will see order releases.

3、Optical modules | According to grassroots research by securities firms, the demand for optical modules is strong. It is expected that 1.6T optical modules will see demand of 30 million units in 2026 and 70 to 80 million units in 2027, while 800G optical modules will maintain an annual demand of 50 million units. Demand is surging, deliveries are urgent, and prices are rising—this is an accurate picture of today’s optical communications. In addition to hot-pluggability, the outlook for sub-sectors such as CPO, NPO, and optical chips is also strengthening.

Commentary: Research institutions believe that the large spillover of demand provides more opportunities for Chinese manufacturers to enter North America’s core AI circle. For investments in Tier-2 optical module companies, first look at material lock-in capability (DSP, CW, EML, silicon photonic chips, isolators, etc.). Second, look at the progress and total order volume for the 1.6T product’s export. Finally, look at both vertical and horizontal layout across the industrial chain (for example, positioning optical chips or products evolving toward NPO and other diversified directions). For CW laser/EML, overseas leaders such as Lumentum and Sumitomo’s capacity expansion priorities often focus on high-end products such as 400mw CW lasers and 200G EML. Therefore, this creates lots of replacement opportunities for Chinese manufacturers with mid-to-low-end products.

4、Weight-loss drugs | According to Securities Times, the world’s first small-molecule oral weight-loss drug Orforglipron is expected to pass the NDA (new drug application) in April this year, with sales possible in 2026.

Commentary: In February this year, Eli Lilly announced that in the ACHIEVE-3 study, its oral weight-loss drug orforglipron outperformed oral semaglutide on the primary endpoint and all key secondary endpoints. It achieved significant improvements in lowering A1C and weight. Compared with injection GLP-1 and oral peptides, oral small molecules have huge advantages, including the ability to significantly expand the patient population (for patients who need to maintain weight loss and those who fear injections), supply-chain stability, no risk of shortages, more flexibility in combination therapies and fixed-dose combination formulation development, and no restrictions on diet and drinking—once-daily dosing is enough, and patients tend to be more willing to accept it in real-world clinical practice. According to expectations from Pfizer CEO at the JPM conference, the weight-loss drug market space in 2030 is expected to reach $150 billion.

5、Storage | According to Jiemian News, this past March, due to memory manufacturers and PC manufacturers signing supply contracts early and locking in short-term prices, the DRAM rally that had lasted nearly a year suddenly came to an end. However, industry experts believe DRAM prices will continue to rise in the second quarter this year. According to reports from South Korean media, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—the two largest DRAM manufacturers globally—have recently informed customers that they plan to significantly raise DRAM prices in the second quarter.

Commentary: According to TrendForce, the latest DRAM price survey from TrendForce, in Q2 2026, despite risks of shipment downgrades in the end market, because DRAM foundry/DRAM original equipment manufacturers actively shift capacity to HBM and server applications and use a “catch-up” strategy to narrow price gaps among various product types, the overall contract price for mainstream DRAM is still expected to rise by 58% to 63% quarter-over-quarter. The NAND Flash market continues to be dominated by AI and data center demand. The effect of price hikes across the entire product line will not ease, and the overall contract price is expected to rise 70% to 75% in Q2. Market participants expect NAND prices will remain firm going forward. Because memory manufacturers still prioritize producing higher-profit AI server application products, imbalances in supply for traditional nodes will persist.

6、Probiotics | According to China News Network, recently the State Administration for Market Regulation opened the draft for public comment on the national standard titled “Health Food Ingredients—Probiotics.” The formulation of this standard fills the gap in China’s quality standards for probiotics used as health food ingredients. It will standardize the industry’s development from the source and build a solid defense for the quality and safety of probiotics health foods. The standard systematically sets out end-to-end requirements, including definitions of terms, classification, technical requirements, and strict stipulations on production compliance, the use of excipients, label identification, transportation and storage.

Commentary: The Securities Times (China Securities Journal) said that this standard will promote the probiotic industry toward standardized and scientific development, and build a new ecosystem for healthy probiotic development based on scientific evidence. Consumers are paying more attention to nutrition and health, and the concept of “prevent disease before it happens” is gradually becoming mainstream. Reasons consumers buy probiotics include weight management, improving immunity, beauty and skincare, women’s health, improving mood, and more. Application scenarios have expanded from daily health needs to immediate needs such as travel stress and rebuilding gut microbiota, as well as workplace-related needs. With breakthroughs in technology barriers, the application scenarios for probiotics will expand significantly—from traditional dietary supplements to everyday consumer categories such as hot drinks, leisure foods, and protein powders.

7、6G | According to the China Securities Journal, since 2026, global 6G development has accelerated into a fast track. Significant progress has been made in 6G standard setting, prototype research, technological breakthroughs, and industrial planning. 3GPP has initiated the drafting of 6G standards and has entered the key window for defining and finalizing specifications. ITU has also released related reports, clarifying key performance requirements for 6G. Globally, consensus has basically been reached for freezing the standards in 2029 and scaling commercial use in 2030. Recently, domestic and overseas companies and research institutions have also released multiple 6G prototypes and prototype systems in rapid succession, covering multiple directions such as terahertz communications, integrated space-air-ground connectivity, sensing-and-computing-intelligence convergence, and optical-wireless integration. These developments indicate that 6G is moving from technology R&D toward hardware productization.

Commentary: The report points out that technological breakthroughs in 6G are not a single-dimension upgrade, but involve coordinated innovation across multiple core technologies. Among them, terahertz communications, integrated space-air-ground connectivity, and sensing-and-computing-intelligence convergence are the three hallmark technical directions for 6G, and they provide the core support to achieve performance leaps and expand scenarios. Sensing-and-computing-intelligence convergence is a key enabling technology for 6G to empower “all industries,” supporting emerging scenarios such as low-altitude economy and intelligent driving. Integrated space-air-ground connectivity is a key technology to achieve “full-domain connectivity” for 6G, and an important foundation for 6G to move from “connecting everything” to “making everything intelligent.” With a combination of space-ground integration and agent communications as the core, 6G achieves full-domain three-dimensional coverage and makes everything intelligent. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology predicts that by 2030 the global 6G market size will exceed $1.2 trillion.

Preview of Today’s Headlines

The U.S. applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week.

U.S. February trade balance.

U.S. February factory orders and durable goods orders.

The White House said Trump will deliver remarks on the Iran issue.

French President Macron makes a state visit to South Korea.

Dallas Fed President Logan speaks.

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