Will the market's hottest trend in nearly three years continue into April?

A property development in Shenzhen This issue’s photography: Zhang Da, Chen Yucong, Li Yingquan, Wu Jiaming | Touxiang Creative/for supply

Securities Times reporter Wu Jiaming

“Today, I’m going to handle property transfer procedures for three pairs of clients. Last month, I and my working team often worked overtime. In my view, this year’s real estate market ‘early spring’ is the most ‘booming’ one in the past three years.” On April 1, when the Luohu District Real Estate Registration Center in Shenzhen had just opened its doors, Securities Times reporter met Xiao Li, who was helping customers fill out forms, and he said as much. Xiao Li is a staff member at a large real estate agency in Shenzhen, responsible specifically for handling related procedures such as property transfers.

The recently concluded March “early spring” in Shenzhen’s real estate market delivered a solid performance. Data statistics from Leju Home Research Center show that in March, the total number of signed contracts for first- and second-hand residential units in Shenzhen was 7,898, up 117% month over month, reaching the highest level in nearly 11 months. Of that, the combined number of signed contracts for first-hand residential pre-sales and existing sales across the city was 2,827, up 118% month over month; and second-hand residential signed contracts were 5,071, up 117% month over month. Judging from lookings and signing data that are closer to the real-time market, the number of second-hand home viewings at Leju Home stores hit a new high in nearly 5 years, which is also 17% higher than the peak in October 2024. The number of second-hand contract signings rose 244% month over month and is likewise at a historical high.

At a new residential project that is currently for sale in Luohu District, Securities Times reporter met a newly signed homebuyer. After the two intended second-hand homes she had been considering were quickly sold one after another, she also took decisive action and soon settled on a new home. In her view, the deep price adjustment, together with the continuing low-interest-rate environment, is causing the holding cost and long-term value of real estate to be reappraised.

During visits to multiple districts in Shenzhen, Securities Times reporter found that luxury homes and “improvement-type” listings have become hotspots in the new-home market, while low total-price listings have become the main force in second-hand home transactions. Data from Leju Home Research Center shows that the share of second-hand home transactions under 3 million yuan increased from 21.8% in March last year to 31.5% in March this year. Xiao Xiaoping, director of the Shenzhen Beike Research Institute, points out that there are mainly two types of buyers of low total-price homes: owner-occupier demand buyers and steady, small-amount investors.

“Regarding second-hand homes, listings under 3 million yuan have the highest level of inquiry and the highest transaction volume.” A senior real estate agency manager in the Futian Meilin area told Securities Times reporter, “The warmth of Shenzhen’s second-hand housing still relies on price-driven momentum; using price to trade for volume remains the prerequisite for the recovery in second-hand home transactions. Buyers with demand for rigid needs still have limited acceptance of prices, so the expectations of both owners and buyers need to be further boosted.”

Many in the industry believe that Shenzhen’s real estate market has already moved out of a stretch of ‘off-season that is not off’ ahead of the Spring Festival, and the key is whether the market’s heat in April can continue. If Shenzhen, and even other core cities, can maintain their level of heat, it will help improve market expectations.

“Since the end of 2025, the recent hot sales of several luxury home projects in Shenzhen Bay and the stabilization of second-hand prices in nearby core areas have sent positive signals to the market, indicating that core areas have already completed their bottoming out. If this situation can be sustained, the entire Shenzhen market is expected to complete bottoming out by 2026.” Zou Shaowei, a senior research fellow at the Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, noted in an interview.

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, said that whether subsequent home prices can maintain a stable trend depends on three things: first, whether the transaction volume of second-hand homes can be maintained—especially after low-priced listings are consumed, whether homes in the mid- to high-price ranges can be activated; second, whether the trading of low-priced second-hand homes can drive replacement demand such as selling the old to buy the new and selling small to buy big, creating a virtuous cycle of consumption; and third, whether new homes can achieve comprehensive high quality on the product side, thereby driving customers’ home-buying needs based on consumption upgrades.

(Editor-in-charge: Liu Chang)

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