[US Stock Market Close] Trump says Iran requested a ceasefire; Iran dismisses it as false news; Dow rises 224 points; crude oil futures fall

Trump wrote on the social media platform Truth Social, saying, “Iran’s new regime president is less radical than his predecessors, and far smarter. He just made a ceasefire request to the United States! We will consider this proposal, but on the condition that the Hormuz Strait must remain open, free, and unobstructed. Until then, we will continue to bomb Iran to destruction, or, as people say, bomb it back to the Stone Age！！！” An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said the statement Trump calls “a request for a ceasefire by Iran’s new regime president” is pure fake news.

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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian issued an open letter to the American people on Wednesday, saying the Iranian people bear no hostility toward other countries, including people in the Americas, Europe, or neighboring countries, while the United States has amassed large numbers of military bases and military forces around Iran, creating a military threat to Iran. Iran’s response—already taken and to be continued—is based on lawful self-defense and is restrained. It is absolutely not an act of starting a war or invading.

Iran’s state news agency IRIB, citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened to enemies due to “the U.S. president’s absurd actions.”

With expectations that the war in the Middle East may come to an end, the Dow briefly expanded its gain to 461 points. At the close, it rose 224 points to 46,565 points; the S&P jumped 0.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.16%.

Intel agreed to pay $14.2 billion to private equity firm Apollo, to buy back half of its stake in an Irish chip plant; the share price rose 8.8% ; Micron (Micron) rose 8.9% ,

New York futures for WTI crude oil fell as much as 4.8%, hitting a low of $96.5, and closed at $100.12, still down 1.24%; Brent futures fell 2.7% to close at $101.16. The market continues to focus on the content of the speech Trump delivered about the Iran war on Wednesday night U.S. time.

Spot gold posted its fourth consecutive rise, up as much as 2.69%, to $4,792.96.

In the U.S., the ADP employment report for March, widely known as “mini-nonfarm,” showed employment rose by 62,000, above the expected 40,000. By sector, education, health care, and construction increased by 58,000 and 30,000 respectively; the trade, transportation, and manufacturing industries decreased by 58,000 and 11,000 respectively.

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson, in an interview with foreign media, said: “We have already seen two consecutive months of quite solid job growth, but most of it came from the healthcare sector. That’s the real focus. Healthcare is changing the labor market.”

In other areas, information services added 16,000 jobs, natural resources and mining contributed 11,000, while leisure and hospitality added 7,000 jobs.

Companies with fewer than 50 employees dominate hiring, adding 85,000 jobs; mid-sized companies lost 20,000 jobs, while large companies with more than 500 employees decreased by 4,000 jobs.

“This is the second consecutive month that small businesses lead the growth,” Richardson said. “This kind of shift may be because the industry is ‘catching up fast,’ and it is also affected by inflation, and ‘the second or third job people need to deal with the current price levels may be coming from the small business segment.’”

Wage growth for employees staying in their original positions held steady at 4.5%, while wages for “job-switchers” grew by 6.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from February.

Trump will deliver a speech at 9:00 p.m. Washington time on Wednesday (9:00 a.m. Thursday Hong Kong time), providing the latest updates on the Iran war.

Although hopes are rising that the fighting could ease, the head of the International Energy Agency said that, due to the Middle East crisis, daily oil supply losses of more than 12 million barrels have occurred so far. This crisis is more severe than the combined impact of the two oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 disruption in Russian natural gas supply. It is expected that the April oil losses will be double those of March. The biggest problem right now is shortages of jet fuel and diesel, which have already affected Asia and will affect Europe from April to May.

The International Energy Agency said it is considering further release of strategic reserves. “If we think there is demand for crude oil or refined products, we might intervene.” Around 40 key energy assets in the Middle East region have been damaged.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see: next page

Intraday trend:

【21:30】The Dow opened up 338 points, at 46,680; the Nasdaq rose 0.8% to 21,769; the S&P rose 42 points to 6,572.

【18:48】Dow futures rose 291 points; Nasdaq futures rose 0.9%; S&P 500 futures rose 43 points.

【14:30】Dow futures rose 210 points to 46,792; S&P futures rose 35 points to 6,606; Nasdaq futures rose 194 points, or 0.8%, to 24,109.

【14:30】Oil prices eased. New York crude oil futures fell 0.8% to $100.59; Brent crude futures fell 1.8% to $102.28. Gold prices continued higher: New York gold futures rose 0.9% to $4,721; spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,703.

【14:30】【Gold price analysis】Gold prices regained $4,700; Analysis: high bond yields limit the rebound space for gold prices. Is the January high the “once-in-a-generation” historical peak?

【13:17】【US stocks analysis】Hope for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire sparks a rapid jump of more than 1,000 points in the Dow. Analysis: as long as the two oil-price and bond-yield indicators continue to move downward, it reflects the market’s longer-term belief in a ceasefire.

【10:37】【AI startup】Anthropic leak from a human error exposes internal source code of coding assistant Claude Code—512,000 lines of code are going viral

【10:23】【AI+layoffs】Oracle shares rise nearly 6%; reports say it has launched global layoffs; thousands of employees expected to be affected

【10:05】【Gold price moves】Gold prices continue higher; spot gold briefly breaks above the $4,700 level; expecting the Iran war to potentially end

【09:00】【New stock IPO】SpaceX is reportedly working with at least 21 banks to prepare for an IPO, ticker code “Project Apex”

【08:32】【NKE earnings】Nike shares fell 9% after hours; expects China market sales to decline by 20%

【08:11】【Warren Buffett】Buffett warns of signs of fragility in the banking system; market panic could push investors out—“even rushing out the door first is still advantageous”

【07:34】【AI+investing】OpenAI adds $12 billion to this round of fundraising; post-investment valuation rises to $85.2 billion

【07:06】【Iran crisis】Trump: The goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons has been achieved; no agreement needed to withdraw—withdraw in one to two or three weeks (updates continue)

$1 and below reflects U.S. stock market conditions on March 31====

Tuesday: Iran’s president said he is willing to end the war if attacks stop again; the Dow surged 1,125 points and the Nasdaq rose 3.8%; oil prices fell

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is willing to end the war if it can ensure it will no longer be attacked. U.S. President Trump, according to reports, also signaled a ceasefire and is willing to end military operations against Iran before the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The market is hopeful that both sides will deploy a ceasefire, and U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday. The Dow’s gains briefly expanded to 1,167 points; oil prices fell.

At the close, the Dow rose 1,125 points to 46,341; the S&P rose 2.91%, and the Nasdaq rebounded 3.83%.

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Focus stocks: Large tech stocks continue to rebound. Nvidia (U.S.: NVDA) rose 5.6%, and Tesla (Tesla) rose 4.6%. Meta (U.S.: META) rose 6.7% at the close. It announced a $2 billion investment in chipmaker Marvell, driving Marvell up 12.8%.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards issued a statement, saying it is designating companies and institutions related to the Middle East region and 18 U.S. high-tech and artificial intelligence companies as targets for attacks.

U.S. President Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, saying: “All countries that cannot obtain aviation fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz—for example, the UK, which refused to participate in Iran’s ‘decapitation operation’—I have a piece of advice for you: First, buy from the United States; we have plenty of oil. Second, muster your courage and go to the Strait of Hormuz to take it. You must start learning self-reliance; the United States will no longer help you like it used to, just like you didn’t help us back then.”

He added that, “Iran has basically already been destroyed. The hardest part is over,” asking those “onlookers” to get their own oil.

Foreign media reported that Trump told aides that even if the Strait of Hormuz is basically closed, he is still willing to end U.S. military operations against Iran, raising hopes in the market that the conflict—now in its month-long stretch—could come to an end.

NYMEX WTI crude closed down 1.46% to $101.38; spot gold had risen as much as 3.9%, topping $4,686.9.

The U.S. dollar index was slightly weak, at 99.88 for now. Fed Chair Powell hinted that there may not necessarily be interest rate hikes in the near term. U.S. long-term Treasury yields continued to fall steadily, and the 10-year Treasury yield was temporarily at 4.321%.

Russian Ambassador to Iran Alexey Dedov said in an interview with Russian media on Tuesday that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is currently in Iran, and is not in Russia receiving treatment as some rumors have said.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see: next page

Intraday trend:

【20:55】Trump: Countries that have not helped the U.S. will have to learn how to obtain oil themselves in the future. Dow futures rose 509 points, Nasdaq futures rose 0.8%. Spot gold rose 1%

【18:00】Dow futures rose 407 points; Nasdaq futures rose 0.8%. Spot gold rose 1%

【15:00】Dow futures rose 321 points to 45,786; S&P futures rose 39 points to 6,427; Nasdaq futures rose 132 points, or 0.6%, to 23,272.

【15:00】Oil prices held steady. New York crude oil rose 0.1% to $102.97; Brent crude rose 0.7% to $107.48. Gold prices continued higher: New York gold rose 0.7% to $4,590; spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,558.

【14:06】【US stocks analysis】Powell hints at no rate hikes in the near term; U.S. stocks rise first then pull back. Analysis: the odds of hikes have been overestimated; if fighting cools down in the short term, the S&P could return to 7,000 points.

【12:08】【New stock IPO】Nasdaq rolls out “fast inclusion” rules, paving the way for unicorns such as SpaceX to quickly advance to the Nasdaq 100 index

【10:48】【Gold price moves】Gold prices continue higher by more than 1%. Powell softens rate-hike expectations + Trump, reportedly, is also willing to end the fighting even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz

【08:03】【U.S. interest rates】Powell says long-term inflation expectations remain under control; emphasizes that monetary policy is in a good position

$1 and below reflects U.S. stock market conditions on March 30====

Monday: The Iranian parliament approved charging fees at the Strait of Hormuz; NY oil above $100; Nasdaq flips down 0.7%; Dow rose 49 points which had once risen 459 points

The Iranian Islamic Parliament on Monday approved a bill to charge tolls for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers could be charged up to $2 million.

U.S. President Trump claimed there had been major progress in negotiations with Iran, but warned that if the Strait of Hormuz does not restore passage, the U.S. may attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. Crude oil for the U.S. rose above $100 in response, while the Nasdaq turned lower.

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On Monday, U.S. stocks saw mixed performance. The Dow opened higher and expanded its gain to as much as 459 points, then briefly fell 109 points. At the close, it rose 49 points to 45,216; the S&P gave back 0.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.73%.

NYMEX crude oil rose 3.25% to $102.88, and closed above the $100 level. Brent May futures closed up 0.18% at $112.78.

Activist investor Bill Ackman said two major mortgage institutions, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, had been hit hard, driving their share prices to surge 51% and 47%. U.S. Aluminum rose 8.2%.

In public remarks on Monday (30th), Fed Chair Powell said the Fed’s response to the Iran war depends largely on how the conflict affects Americans’ inflation expectations. He noted that people often overlook any form of supply shock. But the key is to closely monitor inflation expectations. The central bank faces risks on both its dual mandate—maintaining price stability and achieving full employment. At present, the Fed’s monetary policy is suitable to hold back, emphasizing that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will achieve the 2% inflation target.

He also said that, as is well known, the implementation of monetary policy has long and unstable lags. Therefore, by the time the effects of tightening monetary policy become visible, the oil price impact may already be over, and the comments could imply that interest rate hikes may not happen in the near term.

On Monday, Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, saying the U.S. is engaged in serious talks with an entirely new, more rational Iranian regime to end its military actions in Iran. He also said the talks have made significant progress, but if an agreement cannot be reached as quickly as possible for any reason, and if the Strait of Hormuz cannot be immediately opened for commercial navigation, the U.S. will bomb and completely destroy all Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and Halk Island, including all seawater desalination plants.

He further emphasized that the U.S. has intentionally not touched the above facilities, saying the action is retaliation for Iran’s “terror rule” lasting 47 years under the previous regime, during which it slaughtered and killed many U.S. soldiers and others.

But later, the chair of the executive committee of Iran’s National Development Fund, Gazanfari, rebutted that Iran’s power plants are widely distributed and numerous, reducing the possibility of a complete nationwide blackout. He also said that if Iran’s power generation facilities are targeted, Iran would plunge the entire region into a blackout state, and said Iran’s armed forces have the capability to do so.

Gazanfari also said that countries supporting U.S. and Israeli actions will eventually need to pay a price for it, which could be reflected in damage to their own territory or future compensation for losses to Iran.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, when interviewed by foreign media, said the global oil market has sufficient supply, with more and more ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. As time goes on, the U.S. will regain control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Hormuz will achieve freedom of navigation, whether through U.S. escorts or multinational escorts.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that although tensions remain between the U.S. and Israel and Iran, Trump still prefers to resolve the Iran issue through diplomatic channels. In the interview, he said that the U.S. and Iran are still communicating indirectly via intermediaries, which shows that despite conflict, diplomatic channels remain open.

He also accused Iran’s leadership of using national resources to support regional armed groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi Shiite militias, while also threatening neighboring countries. At the same time, he welcomed the Iranian leadership to change its political ideology and said the U.S. will “seize” any opportunity that could lead Iran to change its political direction.

There are signs that the situation in the Middle East could escalate. Oil prices continue higher. Brent May futures rose more than 2% again, to $115.08 per barrel. June futures also rose to $107.71. WTI crude futures in New York broke above the $100 level, at $101.81 per barrel, up 2.2%. The decline in gold prices is contained; it is up 0.8% for now, at $4,531.24 per ounce.

U.S. stocks rebounded at the open on Monday. The Dow rose 320 points to 45,487; the S&P rose 23 points to 6,392; the Nasdaq rose 31 points, or 0.2%, to 20,980. The U.S. will release this week the March ADP employment change, the March ISM manufacturing index, the March unemployment rate, and nonfarm payrolls data.

U.S. President Trump claimed that Iran has “agreed” to most of the 15 war-ending demands the U.S. presented to Tehran, although it is still unclear whether both sides are actually negotiating.

Trump said, “They agreed to most of what we asked. How could they not?” He added, “We’ll also make some other demands.” However, he refused to disclose what specific concessions Iran has made.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates continue—see: next page

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Intraday trend:

【23:10】Powell says monetary policy has a lag effect, implying that rate hikes may not be necessary in the short term. Oil jumps 2%. Dow rises 320 points

【21:30】Trump: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened, the U.S. will bomb all Iran’s power plants and oil wells. Oil jumps 2%. Dow rises 396 points

【19:55】Trump: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened, the U.S. will bomb all Iran’s power plants and oil wells again as oil jumps another 2%. Dow futures rise 244 points

【18:15】Dow futures rise 153 points; Nasdaq futures rise 0.3%. Focus this week on Middle East developments + nonfarm data

【18:10】【Iran crisis】Iran confirms death of Revolutionary Guards naval commander｜denies any direct talks (updates continue)

【13:26】Dow futures rise 13 points to 45,437; S&P futures rise 6 points to 6,418; Nasdaq futures rise 22 points, or nearly 0.1%, to 23,351.

【13:26】NYMEX WTI crude rises 1.3% to $100.98; Brent futures rise 2.3% to $115.17. As for gold, it steadied; NY gold rises 0.2% to $4,534; spot gold rises 0.4% to $4,512.

【12:19】【European Central Bank】Member: lock in the 2% inflation target; it’s too early to talk about rate hikes for now; warns about systemic risks to the U.S. financial system

【10:58】【Iran crisis】Trump says the U.S. may seize Iran’s oil and occupy Halk Island’s export hub

【10:21】【Japanese yen moves】Jun Mura warns it will take “bold action”; rate of Hong Kong dollars per 100 Japanese yen at 4.9

【09:30】【Oil price moves】Schroders expects high oil prices to last longer, though the pain level will be only half of the 2007 crisis peak

【09:17】【Gold price moves】Gold prices rose for the first time last week since the outbreak of the Middle East war; this week gold prices have fallen again

【08:33】【Iran crisis】War escalates in Iran; oil prices climb higher. Japan and South Korea stock markets experience another “Black Monday”

【07:30】【Iran crisis】Oil rises another 2%. Pakistan: In the coming days, preparations for U.S.-Iran talks. Iran allows 20 ships to pass through the strait｜Trump considering sending ground forces (updates continue)

【07:30】U.S. President Trump said he will extend bombing Iran’s power plants by another 10 days. This has not eased the market’s nerves; instead, concerns that the fighting could drag on and affect oil supply have intensified, worsening the impact on the global economy. U.S. stocks fell last Friday. At the close, the Dow ended at 45,166, down 793 points; the S&P fell 1.67%; the Nasdaq fell 2.15%.

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U.S. stocks last week moved as follows; for details, see:【US stocks close】Iran says its nuclear facilities were attacked; fighting could expand. Dow plunges 793 points; oil prices rise again; the U.S. dollar breaks above 100.

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