"Israeli military on the brink of collapse," How much longer can Netanyahu hold out?

▲ File photo: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo/ Xinhua News Agency

The Iran conflict has been ongoing for more than a month. In recent days, multiple senior Israeli military and political officials issued warnings, saying that the Israeli forces are engaged in multi-front operations and are now on the “verge of collapse,” with the country facing a “security catastrophe.”

According to a report by Xinhua News Agency, Lapid, leader of Israel’s opposition party “Yesh Atid,” delivered a speech recently in which he accused the Netanyahu-led government of forcing the Israel Defense Forces to carry out multi-front operations despite Israel having far from enough manpower, and even of “leaving the wounded directly on the battlefield.” He warned that the Israeli forces are “overwhelmed,” and that Israel faces a “security catastrophe.”

The Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Zamir, also warned that, due to continuously growing operational demands and increasingly severe manpower shortages, Israel’s conventional forces have already been “nearing collapse.”

Since the Israel–Palestine conflict broke out in October 2023, the Israel Defense Forces have fought on seven fronts in succession for nearly two and a half years. Its opponents include Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement in the Gaza Strip; Hezbollah in Lebanon; Yemen’s Houthi forces; groups in Syria and Iraq such as Shiite militia organizations; and Iran, among others.

After the Iran conflict began on February 28 of this year, Israel launched large-scale military operations in Iran and southern Lebanon while also maintaining its troop deployments in the Gaza Strip. Military actions on multiple directions have caused both the war costs for Israel and the number of casualties to keep rising.

The warnings issued by multiple Israeli officials recently reflect that internal pressure within the Israeli forces has reached a tipping point. In such circumstances, how long can Netanyahu still fight?

Israel struggles to endure long-term mobilization

Although Israel is a military power in the Middle East, it has long faced structural problems of manpower shortages.

Israel’s total population is about 10 million, but conventional forces are maintained at between 170,000 and 180,000. In addition, there are reserve forces with an upper limit of around 450,000, whose upper limit may be adjusted according to wartime conditions.

The role of reserve forces is to serve for a short period in a state of war so as not to affect the normal functioning of society. But since the outbreak of the Israel–Palestine conflict in October 2023, because Israel has been conducting multi-front operations, the government has repeatedly extended and adjusted the authorization for emergency conscription of reservists; at the peak, it raised the conscription ceiling to 360,000.

In early March 2026, as the Iran conflict dragged on, the Israeli government increased the reservists’ conscription ceiling to 400,000, reaching the highest peak since the Israel–Palestine conflict in 2023.

At first glance, as a country with universal military service, with a population base of 10 million, Israel seems able to support 400,000 reservists plus a conventional force size of 170,000 to 180,000. But in reality, because ultra-Orthodox Jews (Haredi) do not need to serve, only the able-bodied population among the 8.5 million can be mobilized. This means that over the past two and a half years, some Israeli reservists have already been called up 6 to 7 rounds, with their lives and work severely affected.

Before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, to make up for the manpower shortfall, Israel had pushed legislation to require Haredi people to serve. Netanyahu also promised that the relevant bill would be passed after this year’s Passover (around April). However, because he feared opposition from right-wing religious parties within the ruling coalition, the bill has been shelved.

Multi-front operations and an unfair conscription system show that Israeli society’s tolerance for long-term mobilization continues to decline.

▲ File photo: On March 24, in Tel Aviv, Israel, emergency personnel work at a missile strike site. Photo/ Xinhua News Agency

Manpower shortages may be more apparent in Lebanon

Israel’s current problem of insufficient manpower has become even more conspicuous due to opening a second front in Lebanon.

Fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon is different from fighting Iran. For Israel, it must deploy ground forces in order to achieve the goal of clearing the opponent and establishing a buffer zone that does not threaten Israel’s northern region.

Public information shows that since large-scale clashes broke out between the Israeli forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, at least several thousand Israeli soldiers have been deployed to key strategic points here. The scale is no longer at the level of a battle, but at the level of a campaign. In addition, more reserve forces have been deployed along the Israel–Lebanon border and are waiting for rotation.

Various information indicates that Israel’s deployment of large numbers of ground forces in southern Lebanon is not a short-term move. Netanyahu previously said that Israel is building a larger “buffer zone” in Lebanon; now the focus is to “dismantle Hezbollah,” with “the determination to fundamentally change the situation in Lebanon.”

Israel’s military has also said it will expand the so-called “buffer zone” to the Litani River. This means that about 10% of Lebanon’s territory would be occupied by Israeli forces—and it would be a long-term occupation.

If Israeli forces were to occupy southern Lebanon for the long term, Israel’s manpower shortage problem would also be pushed further into the spotlight. Can Netanyahu hold on?

Netanyahu still finds it hard to stop

Judging from the current situation, there are several key factors that determine how long Netanyahu can last.

For example, U.S. support. There are, of course, many Israeli supporters around Trump. The two Middle East envoys of the United States, Witkokoff and Kushner, are known for supporting Israel, and the current White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, also leans toward Israel to a large extent.

So some analyses believe that the U.S.-led attack on Iran would be the “U.S. fighting for Israel.” But at the same time, Trump’s team also includes members who oppose unlimited support for Israel. The vice president who has been acclaimed as a leader by the MAGA faction, J.D. Vance, and the director of U.S. national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, fall into this category.

The course of the Iran conflict has already shown that the United States’ influence on Netanyahu’s war decisions is limited. Therefore, the most important factor is unlikely to be whether the U.S. is the one that decides to end the war.

Also, it depends on how strongly Netanyahu is pushing the “Greater Israel” plan (the new Middle East plan). For more than two years since the outbreak of the new round of the Israel–Palestine conflict, Israel has successively taken control of the Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights buffer zone, and now has troops deployed in southern Lebanon as well. These are all areas defined by Israel’s right-wing circles as part of “Greater Israel.”

This suggests that Israel may be advancing the “Greater Israel” plan by leveraging the Iran conflict. Unless the deployment of Israeli forces reaches its limit, Netanyahu likely will not stop.

Of course, the decisive factor that would make Netanyahu stop can only be Israeli society.

Israel’s latest public opinion polls show that support for Netanyahu’s military actions in Iran and in southern Lebanon still remains in the majority. But if Israeli cities experience long-term disruption to production and daily life due to missile strikes, combined with the presence of unfairness in the conscription system, public sentiment could reverse—and that would lead to Netanyahu’s war authorizations being withdrawn.

Will such a situation arise? It is not known at present. But the “Israeli forces collapse” warnings recently issued by several Israeli officials may be a sign.

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