April 2 Member Morning Report: Iran firmly denies requesting a "ceasefire"; the market begins pricing in the end of the war

1、【Iran Firmly Denies It Asked for a Ceasefire】Iran said that statements by Trump that it had requested a ceasefire were “false and without basis.” Trump said that an “Iran’s new administration president” had raised a ceasefire request, but he added that the United States would not agree to a ceasefire until “openness, freedom, and unhindered passage” are achieved in the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier on Tuesday, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said that if it could obtain “assurances” against future attacks, Iran would consider ending the war.

Commentary: Although Pezeshkian denied it out loud, the real core information is the “consideration of ending the war” and the “need for assurances” he put forward. Iran has a real need for a ceasefire to avoid war due to prolonged sanctions and the severe drain from recent regional conflicts. But because Iran’s domestic hardliners have huge influence, the government absolutely cannot tolerate it if the administration is “wagging its tail and begging” the United States; therefore, Iran’s official line must, at the first opportunity, jump out and strongly criticize Trump’s claim as “false and without basis”—to safeguard national dignity and the legitimacy of the regime. But it’s also clear that both the U.S. and Iran want to end or at least freeze the current conflict, and they have already begun probing each other’s bottom lines. Real diplomatic negotiations usually do not start with handshakes; they often start with this kind of air-throwing “demanding everything upfront and paying on the spot.”

2、【Markets Start Pricing in the War’s End】As investors’ hopes of a ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran grow, U.S. stock markets have risen further. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes opened higher and kept climbing. Previously, Asian and European stock markets had already surged sharply: Japan’s TOPIX rose 4%, and Europe’s STOXX 600 rose by more than 2%. The price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, briefly dipped below the 100 mark, but then rose again.

3、【Iran Threatens to Strike U.S. Company Giants】Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that it would begin attacks on facilities in the Middle East associated with U.S. technology companies on Wednesday. The Revolutionary Guard said companies such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia would be regarded as “lawful targets” in retaliation for strikes by the United States and Israel. The group also issued threats to non-technology companies such as banking giant JPMorgan and aircraft manufacturer Boeing.

Commentary: In recent years, to secure cheap electricity and ample land, U.S. tech giants have poured massive amounts of money into building data centers and AI infrastructure in the Middle East, especially in Gulf countries. By designating commercial facilities across the Middle East that lack heavy defensive forces as “lawful targets,” Iran is trying to generate the greatest economic damage and political pressure at the lowest tactical cost, thereby accumulating more chips for itself in subsequent game-playing—or potential ceasefire talks.

4、【SpaceX IPO Is Primed】Rocket company SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, has secretly filed an application for an initial public offering (IPO), which is expected to become one of the largest listings in history. Reports say SpaceX’s valuation exceeds $1 trillion, and it is seeking to raise several hundred billion dollars. The company hopes to finance its ambitious Mars missions and space data centers by raising funds through going public.

5、【Trump Pushes the U.K. Back Toward the EU】U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that, amid geopolitical turmoil and increasingly tense ties with the United States, he will seek closer connections with the European Union. He also hinted that the U.K. will try to coordinate diplomatic efforts among all parties to help bring about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.